You cannot put too much on any series that’s played in May, but any series pinning the Boston Red Sox against the New York Yankees is a fun one and with the two atop the AL East and separated by a single game, there’s more meaning. Still, even after this series, there will still be 13 more meetings between these clubs. Of course, if one can grab the early momentum in the season series, it could certainly help build confidence for the next rivalry showdown.
First pitch for the three-game series between the Yankees and Red Sox is scheduled for Tuesday, May 8, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. The series than proceeds with two more evening showdowns. All three games will be broadcast nationally with Tuesday’s and Thursday’s showdowns on MLB Network with Wednesday’s game on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Sox and Yankees have already played a series this year with Boston winning two of three, outscoring New York by 13 runs, 27-14 in those three games.
Based on that alone, the Sox should have the edge in this series, but a month can be forever ago during a baseball season.
Boston was red-hot out of the gate with a 17-2 start, but they’ve gone a much more mediocre 8-7 since that time. The Yankees, on the other hand, had trouble finding their way out of the gate at first, but have now won six straight games and 15 of their last 16. They’re as hot now as the Red Sox were we these two teams square off the first time. Plus, this series is in the Bronx where New York is 13-5.
These two teams are close, real close. They’re offenses rank one and two in baseball, their bullpen ERA is nearly identical and the starting pitching is flawed, but talented in both regards. The Sox likely have the better rotation and they’ve have the better record heading into the series—by a game—but the Yankees have the better offense and the better bullpen.
Of course, given the bullpen ERAs to date, that last claim is a bit arguable. In the ninth inning, both teams have a shutdown option in Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel. It’s leading to them that the teams differentiate.
For the Yankees, Chad Green’s stuff is nearly as filthy as Chapmans while David Robertson is an effective former closer. While the likes of Dellin Betances and his struggles along with the sixth and seventh man in the pen have inflated the team bullpen ERA, there are many lock down choices for Aaron Boone in the middle-to-late innings.
As for the Sox, they’ve generally gotten the results this year and have used fewer options on the hill, but it’s hard to claim Heath Hembree or Matt Barnes matchups up with Chad Green.
Nevertheless, the Sox still do have five relievers with at least 10 Ks per nine here through the season’s first month and that’s not too shabby when it comes to dominance.
Probable Pitchers
The Yankees luck out and will miss Chris Sale in this series. Sale, obviously, is the Red Sox’s ace though Boston does send a trio of quality, established big leaguers to the mound in this best-of-three.
Boston has the advantage in rotational depth over the Yankees, particularly with the injury to Jordan Montgomery and the return to healthy of Drew Pomeranz and Eduardo Rodriguez. Depth, however, doesn’t mean as much in a three-game set as the matchups and the Yankees don’t have to face Sale while the Red Sox do get Luis Severino.
In the series opener, the Yankees have the edge on the mound with Severino against Pomeranz.
It’s important not to undersell Pomeranz, but the lefty is making just his fourth start and has been trying to find himself to this point.
While his last start was a good one, going six innings and allowing three runs, he’s yet to face an opponent with the firepower anything close to what the Yankees can produce.
On the other side, Severino has gotten better since his third-place finish in the 2017 Cy Young voting. He’s got a league high five wins already with a 2.11 ERA and 0.851 WHIP. He’s striking out 10 per nine and has allowed only two homers in 47 innings. He’s also coming off a complete game shutout.
Moving along, the rest of the series, the Sox will send David Price and Rick Porcello to the hill while the Yankees turn to Masahiro Tanaka and C.C. Sabathia. \
Tanaka is as talented a pitcher as anyone in baseball, but he’s been extremely up-and-down since the start of 2017. He’s 4-2 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.000 WHIP on the young season. He, however, has allowed six homers in seven games.
Tanaka had a couple bad starts in mid-April, but he’s since strung together three straight quality starts, including allowing just three runs against the defending World Champion Astros in a game the Yankees ultimately won.
As for Price, his career since getting to Boston has been a bit dicey, littered with underperformance, controversy and injury.
There was optimism for the former Cy Young Award winner this season. He finally looked healthy out of spring, but he’s 2-4 with a 5.11 ERA. He’s walking a batter and a half more per nine innings than his career average and has now had a few bad starts in a row. He was sporting a 2.93 ERA following a start on April 22, but has allowed 15 runs in 9.1 innings since then against lackluster offenses like the Rays and Rangers.
Moving to the series finale, Porcello has looked more like the 2016 version than 2017 which is great news for Boston. He’s throwing like he did in his Cy Young season. This could be the best matchup for Boston to steal a win.
Porcello, after all, is 5-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.820 WHIP in 46.1 innings pitched. He’s shown impeccable control with just five walks and a great ability to put the ball wherever he wants in—or out of—the zone.
Sabathia, on the other hand, is 2-0 with a 1.39 ERA in six starts, but he’s barely averaging over five innings a start and while a solid, veteran arm, is more of a mid-rotation option than a top of the rotation starter. The numbers are good, but his 3.60 FIP paint a more accurate picture of what he’s performed so far as he’s been fortunate to have a low BABIP against him to this point. And, against a team like Boston that can put the ball in play, he could see some regression.
Live Betting
Speaking of Boston’s ability to put the ball in play, the Sox lead baseball with a .269 team batting average.
Given the philosophy of today’s game, the Red Sox are in rare territory amongst offenses as they’ve struck out the fourth fewest times in baseball and when they put the ball in play, they make good hard contact.
The Sox can, of course, hit the ball out of the yard, but they’re also adept at slamming doubles and moving runners. The Yankees have outscored the Sox on the season by four runs and they’ve out homered Boston, too. Still, the Sox have 35 more total bases. They just lag New York in homers and walks.
Of course, Boston can still hit jacks. Mookie Betts, after all, leads baseball with 13 homers and is joined by J.D. Martinez to form a dangerous heart of the order.
With a lineup that includings Mitch Moreland or Hanley Ramirez on the bench most games, it’s hard to question the ability of the lineup to score. Those are everyday players regulated to reserve roles and this gives Alex Cora the flexibility to run with the hot hand and/or to play matchups.
For New York, Giancarlo Stanton is coming around while Aaron Judge has been raking and Gary Sanchez has provided thump despite a low average.
This lineup is both deep and scary. Injuries have taken their toll, but with Tyler Austin swinging well and Gleybar Torroes and Miguel Andujar both showing their more than ready for the Majors, there’s an above average bat basically one-through-nine in the order save for early struggles from Neil Walker and Brett Gardner.
Of course, since we mentioned Betts, we must mention Didi Gregorius. On a team with Stanton and Judge, he’s easy to overlook, but Gregorius is the reigning Player of the Month, winning the award over the scorching hot Betts.
With a .319 average, 1.084 OPS, 10 homers and 30 RBIs, Gregorius has been the best and most productive hitter on a team built around a reigning MVP, reigning Rookie of the Year and several prolific sluggers.
MLB Pick
The Red Sox have three quality starters lined up for this game. From Pomeranz to Price to Porcello, the Sox likely have the better trio of arms, though Severino seems to be the best start slated for the three games.
Look for the Yankees to take the series opener, but the Red Sox did take care of business against the Yankees in their last series and should be able to win at least one game of the three.
Despite that, look for the Yankees to win two-of-three as New York is scorching hot. The Red Sox were the story of the first few weeks while New York has been the hottest team of late.
These teams are both stacked with talent and while Boston has the edge in the rotation overall, the Yankees have a nice set of three arms going in this series. They also have the deeper bullpen at their disposal.
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