In years past, a Yankee-Red Sox matchup was often oversold in the name of rivalry, but this year the hype is real. The New York Yankees will host the Boston Red Sox in a best-of-three series over the weekend as the two teams remain neck-and-neck for the best record in the American League East. Perhaps the best race in the AL, the battle for AL East supremacy still has a long way to go but both teams will be looking to make a statement over the weekend against their hated rival.
The next iteration of the classic Red Sox versus Yankees series begins Friday, June 29, 2018 and continues through Sunday, July 1, 2018. First pitch of the series opener starts at 7:05 p.m. ET. All three games are night games from Yankee Stadium. Friday’s game will be on MLB Network, Saturday’s on FOX and Sunday’s on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.
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Odds Analysis
The Red Sox and Yankees have already faced each other six times and they’ve got 10 more meetings after this series concludes. Playing in the same division means plenty of head-to-head battles making their division race more exciting.
In their limited exposure so far, the two teams have split the season series, three games apiece though Boston has outscored the Yankees by 10 runs in the six games.
Boston has also outscored the Yankees on the season by 15 runs, though they have played three more games. Overall, these are the two leading teams in team OPS with Boston at .786 and New York at .787. In the month of June, Boston has the edge in both runs and OPS, but again the margin isn’t all that grand.
The two rosters both feature some powerful hitters. For the Yankees, the tandem of Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge was supposed to legendary and, to this point, they’ve combined for 39 home runs and 98 RBIs.
While those are some staggering numbers, the duo or Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez in Boston has outperformed the Yankee sluggers with 44 combined homers, 102 RBIs and a much better collective average. Betts has a .338/.424/.688 slash line while Martinez is sitting at .326/.393/.646. While both Betts and Martinez have an OPS over 1.000, Judge is tops in New York at .950.
One thing the Yankee lineup does have over the Red Sox, however, is a bit better depth. From Gleybar Torres to Miguel Andujar to Brett Gardner, it’s hard to find a hole in the order. With Gary Sanchez out, Austin Romine is the primary catcher now and he’s got a OPS+ of 128. Really first base is the only spot that’s still an issue as Neil Walker and Greg Bird are both hitting below the Mendoza Line.
New York’s line up also matches up well against the lefty heavy Boston rotation. Judge, Stanton, Andujar, and Torres all bat from the right side.
For Boston, there are a couple offensive holes, mainly behind the plate and in center field—at least when Jackie Bradley Jr. is in the game. The defense helps make up for it, but those spots allow for some maneuvering around the lineup. Of course, with Andrew Benintendi having a monster sophomore season and Xander Bogaerts and Mitch Moreland having big years, too, there’s still plenty of support for the Sox big boppers.
Probable Pitchers
The Red Sox rotation is stacked with lefties so it should be no surprise that the series will kick off with a battle of southpaws.
For Boston, it’ll be Eduardo Rodriguez kicking off the series on the mound and he’ll need to outduel C.C. Sabathia.
Rodriguez struggled against Seattle his last time out, allowing five runs in just four frames. The rocky last start aside, he’s still boasting a 2.97 ERA over his last seven games.
The last time E-Rod took on the Yankees, he held the Bombers scoreless over five innings while striking out eight. That’s been typical Rodriguez game this year, good numbers, but shorter outings. He’s 9-2 in 15 starts this season and has a 3.86 ERA and 1.286 WHIP, but he’s only thrown 81.2 innings in those 15 starts.
On the other side, the veteran southpaw was the pitcher opposite Rodriguez the last time E-Rod faced New York, too. Rodriguez fared better in that game as Sabathia allowed four runs in four innings. That doesn’t bode well for Friday nor does the fact Sabathia has dropped his last two games—both against the Rays. On the positive side, however, those loses were due to poor pitching as he, allowing just four earned runs in 13 combined innings.
Overall, Sabathia isn’t the ace pitcher he was in the past, but he’s still a very effective hurler. He’s thrown nearly as many innings as Rodriguez in one less game. His 4-3 record isn’t as impressive, but his 3.18 ERA is better.
In the end, this game features two lefty pitchers who don’t typically go deep in games—at least not at this stage of their respective careers—but still provide quality innings. The difference is E-Rod has the better stuff at this point, but C.C. has the better execution and has proven a bit better at limiting damage.
Moving on to Game 2, we have a very favorable matchup for the visiting Red Sox.
Boston has their ace on the hill for this one with Chris Sale set for the start. The Sox’s southpaw is a strikeout machine and has struck out at least nine in four straight starts. He last faced the Yankees in April, allowing one run in six innings with eight stakeouts and no walks in that game.
The overall numbers for Sale are as impressive as you’d expect. He’s 7-4 with a 2.56 Era and 0.927 WHIP in 109 innings spread over 17 starts. He’s boasting a 12.6 strikeout per nine inning ratio and easily leads the league with his 153 strikeouts. He can get a strikeout seemingly at will, allowing him to maneuver his way out of trouble on the rare occasion he gets back into a corner. In his career against the Yankees, he’s got a 1.73 ERA in 93.2 innings. He’s struck out 119.
Those numbers give him a clear upper hand as compared to the Yankees’ Game 2 starter: Sonny Gray.
Gray struggled early in the year, but was pitching better of late until his last start where we allowed four runs in 6.2 innings to take the loss versus the Rays. He wasn’t throwing well when he last faced the Sox, giving up six runs in three innings in an early April loss.
Simply put, Gray hasn’t been the pitcher the Yankees hoped he would be when they acquired him from Oakland last year. He’s 9-12 since joining the Yankees with a 4.39 ERA. In his career against the Sox, both in New York and in Oakland, he’s 1-5 with a 5.97 ERA. This year, he’s 5-5 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in 15 starts with 34 walks.
To wrap up the series, the Red Sox have David Price slated to make the start while the Yankees have yet to announce their starter, but it figures to be one of the youngsters, either Domingo German or Jonathan Loaisiga.
Both Loaisiga and German have shown flashes of brilliance and glimpses of being very hittable. Loaisiga’s numbers are better right now, but German was good early. He’s now been around long enough for hitters to adjust. Hitters will start adjusting to Loaisiga, too.
Regardless of which of the youngsters start, they’ll be mismatched against Price if he’s on top of his game.
The third straight lefty in this series for the Sox, Price was dealing with health issues early in the season limiting his exposure to the Yankees to just a single inning. He, of course, has faced the Yankees plenty in his career, spending most of it in the AL East. Price does have 15 wins against New York, but he’s also taken 12 losses and posted a 4.67 cumulative ERA.
Overall, Price is 9-5 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 93.1 innings this year, but he’s been better than that recently. He’s going to Sunday’s start hot with a 2.79 ERA over his last seven games. He’s finally throwing like the guy the Sox thought they signed three years ago.
Live Betting
As the games go on, the Yankees gain a bigger edge in the pitching matchups. The projected starters give the Sox the edge, but it swings back closer to the home team’s favor in the bullpen.
New York’s pitching has been the best in baseball in June with a 2.31 ERA and a lot of that can be credited to the pen. As a unit, the pen has a 2.73 ERA compared to a 3.10 mark for Boston.
Both teams are getting the job done in relief, but the Yankees’ have the edge in the middle innings.
Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman are two of the best closers in the game. Chapman’s numbers are a bit more impressive this year, but when you get to the ninth for either team, the game is well in hand.
Setting up Kimbrel, Joe Kelly is generally reliable despite some recent hiccups. Heath Hembree and Matt Barnes have had good months here in June.
Aaron Boone has a few more proven options in his pen. From Chad Green to David Robertson to Dellin Betances to Adam Warren and Jonathan Holder. For the Yankees, they only need five solid innings from the rotation. It’s good they need less from the rotation considering the rotation is lined up to give them less, too.
MLB Pick
This is an excellent matchup between two of the best teams in baseball who just so happen to be the biggest rivals in the sport.
Battling it out for the division again should help spark a rivalry that’s been a bit cold, at least before last year.
In this series, look for the Sox to steal a series win against the Yankees up in New York. Both the Red Sox and Yankees have strong offenses. They can both score plenty of runs, bringing this match up down to the pitching.
While the Yankees have the deeper bullpen, the Red Sox have a few dependable arms to set up Craig Kimbrel who is nails in the ninth. That’s enough for a three-game set where the Sox have a pair of aces going.
The three consecutive lefties don’t help mix up the view for the hitters, but it does allow Alex Cora to set up late game matchups against righty relievers.
In the end, the Yankees may have the edge in the Game 1 matchup between E-Rod and Sabathia, but Sale and Price trump the youngster in the Yankee rotation more than the Yankee bullpen depth can compensate.
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