Ranked atop their respective divisions, the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies meet in the City of Brotherly Love for a brief two-game series, concluding on Wednesday night. The series—and game—could end up being a World Series preview though teams like the Yankees, Astros, Braves and Cubs—amongst others—will have something to say about that. Back to Wednesday night’s action, the game will feature new Sox’s right-hander Nathan Eovaldi trying to bounce back from a rough start and Vince Velasquez also coming off a less-than-stellar performance his last time out.
First pitch of the game between the Red Sox at Phillies is scheduled for Wednesday, August 15, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. The matchup will be televised nationally on ESPN.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
The Red Sox are rolling and are 50-games over-.500, boasting the best record in baseball and a huge lead in the AL East. Boston is 14-2 in their last 16 games, but one of those losses did come against the Phillies.
During that most recent run, the Sox have done most of the damage against the Orioles, Twins and Blue Jays. Sure, they did sweep the Yankees in four-games, that was impressive, but the only other winning team—the Phillies—split their series.
Speaking of the Phillies, they’ve lost back-to-back series against the Diamondbacks and Padres. As a result, they find themselves tied atop the NL East with the Braves and that should provide extra motivation. The Sox are almost assured the AL East crown, but the Phillies have much more to play for at the moment.
The Phillies also have an improved offense since the All-Star break. The bats were the biggest issue for the Phillies who were getting by mostly on pitching.
While shortstop and catcher remain offensive issues—at least until Wilson Ramos comes off the DL—the rest of the team is hitting quite well. Justin Bour got a pinch hit in his debut and Nick Williams and Maikel Franco have been swinging hot bats with a .920 OPS and .891 OPS respectively since the break.
Rhys Hoskins, continues to rake, too, while Carlos Santana is still getting on base.
Of course, when comparing offenses, the Red Sox clearly come out on top. They’ll play a player short without the DH which will push J.D. Martinez to the outfield and likely Jackie Bradley Jr. to the bench. In doing so, the defense takes a bigger hit than the offense without the DH.
Mookie Betts and Martinez remain two of the top AL MVP candidates with a season long OPS+ of 193 and 182 respectively. Hoskins leads the Phillies in OPS+ at 127. Not only do both Betts and Martinez dwarf that number, but Andrew Benintendi and Xander Bogaerts both have a higher OPS+, too.
Probable Pitchers
Nathan Eovaldi looked like the best deadline acquisition through his first two starts, tossing 15 scoreless innings over his first two starts as a Red Sox. He, however, struggled in his last start, failing to get through three innings against the Orioles before allowing eight runs.
The Sox still ended up winning that game, but the 28-year old right-hander wasn’t the reason why. He’ll now try to bounce back against the Phillies who he’ll face for the first time this year. In nine career starts against Philadelphia—much earlier in his career—he’s 2-4 with a 3.51 ERA despite an inflated 1.442 WHIP and meager strikeout rate. Until recently, he’s been very hittable over his career.
Of course, the Orioles found Eovaldi hittable in his last start, too, but some of that is because his cutter wasn’t working. Eovaldi established the cutter to help provide more movement on his high-velocity fastball and that’s been the difference lately, expect for against the O’s.
If the cutter is working on Wednesday, he should get back to pitching well. On the season, he’s made just 13 starts split between Boston and Tampa Bay, but he’s 5-4 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.018 WHIP. He’s got the lowest hit rate against of his career and has been able to complement that with a 5.64 strikeout to walk ratio.
Eovaldi has evolved into a solid starter, but he can still get in trouble from time to time when his pitches flatten out. That’s when he can be taken yard and that’s already happed 12 times in 74.2 innings and is the main reason he’s left with a 4.07 FIP this season, higher than his ERA.
As for the other side of this pitching matchup, Vince Velasquez is one of five big reasons the Phillies are where they are in the standings. The starting pitching for the Phillies continuously keeps the team in the game, allowing a mediocre offense to do enough to get wins.
While Aaron Nola and Jake Arreita are the headliners, Velasquez may have the best stuff of anyone in the rotation. It’s been harnessing it that’s come as a challenge. Over his last 15 starts since the end of April, he’s pitched to a 3.18 ERA and has been a top of the rotation quality performer.
Overall, he’s 8-9 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.224 WHIP, but with 10 strikeouts per nine innings and just 13 bombs given up over 117.2 innings, Velasquez has a very good 3.62 FIP.
The righty did go just four innings in his last start, giving up four runs against the D-backs, but before that, he hadn’t allowed more than two runs a game since mid-June and had four scoreless outings—albeit one in relief—over his previous five appearances. In fact, in the previous 25.1 innings, he allowed just two runs on 13 hits. He also hasn’t allowed a home run since June 25.
Live Betting
Both the Phillies and Red Sox have good bullpens to help close out wins. For the Phillies, the names aren’t as recognizable, but there’s no denying the dominance of Seranthony Dominguez and Victor Arano in the later innings.
Meanwhile, the team just picked up Aaron Loup as a veteran arm with experience and have Pat Neshak to provide Boston hitters with a different look.
In the ninth inning, it’s hard to beat Craig Kimbrel, but the Sox will have to get to him with the lead in the ninth for that to matter. Besides, his 2.57 ERA is slightly higher than that of the Phillies’ closer, Dominguez.
Still, the Boston bullpen is good, even if they didn’t add at the deadline, and a strength of a team with many, many strengths.
MLB Pick
The Red Sox offense is stacked and a tough one to penetrate, but Boston will be without the DH spot in the order, pushing Martinez to the outfield weakening the defense.
This team can still rake, but Velazquez has been great at avoiding the long ball and avoiding runs in general save for his last start. Look for him to bounce back with a good outing against Boston. The Sox will score a couple against him, but he’ll keep the Phillies in the game at home, giving them a chance to win.
From there, look for the Phillies to get some hits against Eovaldi. The right-hander is good when he’s on, but he struggled against a little-hitting Orioles’ team which is quite discouraging.
Look for the Phillies to score a few against Eovaldi and for Velazquez and the talented arms in the Phillies pen to hold the lead, giving Philadelphia the win in the series finale at home.
MLB Odds: Phillies 4, Red Sox 3
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
