In what could be a preview of the AL Wild Card Game come October, the Seattle Mariners will host the Boston Red Sox for the third game of a four-game weekend series. The Mariners have been one of the hottest teams in baseball and are still trying to earn respect despite currently leading the AL West division over the reigning World Series Champions. A good series against the Sox will help gain that respect though this series, including Saturday’s game, will be a tough matchup as Seattle gets a knuckleballer in Steven Wright and counter with a little-known Wade LeBlanc.
First pitch for the game between the Red Sox and Mariners is scheduled for Saturday, June 16, 2018, at 8:15 p.m. ET at Safeco Field. The matchup will be shown on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
Heading into the Red Sox series, the Mariners are 11-2 in their last 13 games including sweeping the Angels this past week. Seattle is 33-14 in their last 47 games, showing this is more than just a good stretch. They’ve been rolling since the Robinson Cano suspension and have easily replaced him.
Seattle’s offense isn’t as good as the Red Sox’s. Boston leads baseball in runs scored, but the Mariners’ bats are still strong. In June, the Mariners are outscoring the Red Sox and have a .805 team OPS compared to .737 for the Red Sox.
Nelson Cruz’s bat has warmed up and Mitch Haniger has officially joined the league of elite hitters with a 142 OPS+, 16 homers and 52 RBIs. The two are a strong middle of the order, even without Cano. While Dee Gordon isn’t a high OBP hitter, he’s got a good average and plenty of speed. Jean Segura, meanwhile, is an excellent table setter with his .368 OBP and 14 steals.
This is a diverse lineup with speed, power and average at most positions. Mike Zunino is only hitting .208, but has power. Ben Gamel isn’t hitting the homers, but he has a .300 average as he’s getting more playing time. With Gordon back at second and Guillermo Heredia getting more playing time in center, the defense has also improved.
In Boston, the team missed Mookie Betts when he was on the DL. His absence plays a roll in the offense regression here in June.
Betts is having a great year with a 207 OPS+. He’s got a .352/.430/.741 slash line. He’s missed 15 games, but has 18 homers. With J.D. Martinez boasting a .313/.383/.650 slash line and 22 homers along with 55 RBIs, it’s hard to find a better tandem of bats in the game.
Seattle’s offense is more spread throughout the lineup, but Boston’s is more prolific in the middle. Andrew Benintendi’s hitting well with a .302 average, Xander Bogaerts is having a good year and Mitch Moreland is raking. Still, Rafael Devers hasn’t been able to replicate his rookie campaign, Eduardo Nunez has a .639 OPS and Jackie Bradley is batting .181. That doesn’t even mention the catching position which isn’t getting much production from Christian Vazquez or Sandy Leon.
Probable Pitchers
The fill-ins are slated to get the start in this nationally broadcast showdown with knuckleballer Steven Wright toeing the rubber for the Sox against the Mariners’ journeyman southpaw Wade LeBlanc.
Wright is pitching very well right now. He’s thrown 22.1 consecutive scoreless innings. That’s the longest current streak in the Majors.
The knuckleballer started the year on the DL and came back in the bullpen, but with Drew Pomeranz going down, he worked his way back into the rotation. Overall, he’s 2-0 with a 1.21 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in 29.2 innings pitched. He’s still a bit wild—as most knucklers are—but he’s doing a good job of limiting hard contact. He’s allowing just 4.6 hits per nine innings as a result of a ridiculously low BABIP. That will come up and Wright will get rocked, but he’s pitching well now.
Like anyone who throws the knuckler, if the ball is fluttering well, he’s great, but if the pitch isn’t there, he can get hit—hard. Things are good now for the 33-year old, but that can change quickly. The Mariners are swinging hot bats. Either the knuckleballer will throw off their timing and mess them up, or a high knuckler or two will get crushed.
As for LeBlanc, the veteran lefty was put in the rotation more out of necessity than anything else, but the 33-year old has delivered with a 2-0 record and 2.45 ERA in eight starts. The Mariners are 6-2 in those games.
A crafty lefty, LeBlanc doesn’t have great stuff and hasn’t done well in his career against Boston. He’s one that gets by on grit, location and movement, but Boston is a good hitting club that can wait for, and take advantage of, mistakes.
So far this season, his command has been on-point. Combining his starts with his relief work, LeBlanc has thrown 54 innings with a 3.00 ERA and 1.222 WHIP. His FIP is much higher than his ERA at 4.26 as he’s not a big strikeout pitcher and can give up the long ball. He is pitching in a pitcher friendly stadium, but against a powerful lineup.
Live Betting
Both the Mariners and the Red Sox have good options in the ninth to close out wins. Craig Kimbrel is still the cream of the crop of closers, but Edwin Diaz has been filthy with 58 strikeouts and just 19 hits in 36 innings.
Leading into Diaz, Alex Colome is settling in up in Seattle. The former Rays’ closer helps solidify the back-end. James Pazos has also quietly had a good year with a 1.54 ERA and 0.943 WHIP. He’s keeping hitters off base with just one walk in 23.1 innings along with just one long ball.
For Boston, Kimbrel’s a bit more reliable than Diaz—or at least proven over a longer period. He’s also gotten some good work from Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez in longer roles while Joe Kelly’s evolving into a strong set up man. He’s got the velocity and is finally getting the strikeouts to match.
MLB Pick
Both Wright and LeBlanc are finding great results in the rotation, but neither is really proven over an expanded period. Sure, Wright is a former All-Star, but the Mariners are swinging well right now and they will get a hanging knuckler at some point. With how this team is streaking, look for them to take advantage of it.
In the end, both Wright and LeBlanc will continue keeping their teams in the game and the bullpens will do okay.
Look for a close game, but given how great the Mariners have been and that they’re playing at home, give this one to Seattle in a close, exciting battle.
MLB Odds: Mariners 6, Red Sox 5
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