The Boston Red Sox are ready to kick off their defense of their World Series championship on Thursday night in primetime as they play the Seattle Mariners in the great Northwest. Seattle’s already got a couple regular season games under their belts, but the team is now beyond the Ichiro pomp and circumstances. They won their first two games, but get a real test here as they host the defending World Series champions.
First pitch for the game between the Red Sox and Mariners is scheduled for Thursday, March 28, 2019, at 7:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Red Sox are one of the three favorites two win the World Series in 2019 after they were champions in 2018 for the fourth time since the turn of the century.
Boston is returning most of the same team that won it all while the Mariners, on the other side of this matchup, have torn down from a team that won 19 fewer games and still vastly over achieved based on its run differential.
The one area that Boston is weaker as we enter 2019, however, is the bullpen. The Sox leaned on its starters heavily last year, including in October where Rick Porcello and Nathan Eovaldi in particular were asked to throw out the pen often. That showed Alex Cora didn’t really trust his pen, but that pen is weaker in 2019.
He won’t manage like that in the regular season, but the bullpen could be an area that teams can exploit, particularly in close games. Gone are Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly. Ryan Braiser and Matt Barnes are the primary late-inning arms now. There is still some depth in the relief corps with Heath Hembree, Tyler Thornburg, Brandon Workman, Brian Johnson and more, but the dominance in the back-end is not there.
The same is true in Seattle where the entire pitching staff is lacking. The Mariners exceeded their run differential so heavily last year on the strength of their bullpen and, namely, Edwin Diaz.
Diaz was a lockdown closer, but he’s now pitching in New York, leaving Seattle’s pen even more lacking than Boston’s as was evident in the team’s first couples games of the year.
Probable Pitchers
A pair of southpaws will take the hill on Thursday for the Mariners’ home opener as Chris Sale gets the start for the Red Sox against the Mariners’ Marco Gonzales who is already making his second start of the season.
Seattle, as part of the Opening Series in Japan, are already 2-0 on the year while Gonzales was created with the first win. He allowed three earned runs—four total—over six innings. He was far from perfect, but gave the Mariners enough for the win.
Gonzales will be making just his second career start against the Red Sox in this game. He lost his previous start against them, but that came in Fenway. The 27-year old southpaw was a better pitcher at home last year, pitching to a 3.63 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 79.1 innings in Seattle.
Overall, the lefty was 13-9 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 166.2 innings. Those numbers are hardly earth shattering, but gave the Mariners a chance to win in most of his starts. He’s a bit miscast as the staff ace, particularly following a rough spring, but he’s a solid Major League pitcher. Unfortunately for him, he matches up against a legitimate ace on Thursday. He didn’t have to worry about that against Oakland in Japan.
For the Sox, Chris Sale is a perennial Cy Young contender. Unlike two of his teammates, he’s yet to win the award, but he’s clearly the ace of the staff anyway.
Having just resigned with the Sox, he should have a clear focus on the year, coming in having finished in the top-5 in Cy Young voting for six straight seasons.
Last year, Sales made just 27 starts due to injury, but went 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.861 WHIP in 158 innings. It was his second straight sub-1 WHIP and sub-3 ERA season. He struck out 13.5 batters per nine innings. He walked just 34 hitters and allowed 11 home runs while striking out 237.
Gonzales is a good pitcher, but Sale is in a clearly different class. This spring, he’s been just as electric in his Grapefruit League action.
Last year, against Seattle, he pitched seven scoreless—though that was at Fenway—allowing just four hits and strikeout in 13. In his career, Sale is 6-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.753 WHIP in 11 games against Seattle.
Live Betting
Sale has owned the Mariners in his career, the Seattle’s roster is completely revamped from the one that it sported a year ago.
Having recognized they got lucky to be as good as they were last year given their negative run differential, the Mariners opted to go for a bit or a reboot. Gone are Nelson Cruz, Jean Segura and Robinson Cano.
While it was a bit of a sell-off, the Mariners did bring in some experienced players including Jay Bruce, Edwin Encarnacion, Mallex Smith and Tim Beckham. Smith and Beckham are a combined 1-for-25 against Sale, but Bruce is 2-for-3 and Encarnacion has had some success, going 6-for-19 with a pair of home runs and four walks.
The pitching is the weakness for the Mariners. The lineup is actually pretty strong. The team scored 14 in two games against the A’s.
Smith should be back for this game and gives the Mariners a good, speedy guy who had a big year in Tampa Bay ahead of Mitch Haniger, Bruce and Encarnacion. Beyond them, Domingo Santana struggled last year in a crowded outfield in Milwaukee, but he hit a grand slam in Japan and had a very good year in 2017.
While the Mariners’ offense can hold its own, the Boston offense ranked first in baseball in runs scored last year, plating 876 and posting a .792 team OPS with largely the same team as they have here in 2019.
The catching position is still an offensive weak spot with Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart, but that’s the only weakness on the roster. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez were both MVP candidates last year with Betts taking home the honors with a 10.9 WAR season. Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. form a great defensive outfield, but they can also hit.
Betts ended the year as a 30-30 guy with 32 homers and 30 steals to go with his .346 average and 1.078 OPS. He’s a huge threat atop the order while Martinez is a cog in the middle. He filled the role previously filled by David Ortiz and really brought the lineup together.
Martinez slashed .330/.402/.629 last year with 43 home runs and 130 RBIs. Meanwhile, Mitch Moreland, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Benintendi, Bradley and even Brock Holt all have above average bats.
MLB Pick
The Red Sox had the best lineup in baseball last year and save for Sandy Leon, who had a .511 OPS, all are back in 2019. If the team gets more from the catcher position, this offense could be even better.
For the season opener on Thursday, the Sox could line up Steve Pearce at first who rakes lefties and will, of course, have Betts, Martinez, Benintendi, Bogaerts and more to go against Gonzales. That’s a more threatening lineup than the one the A’s used that scored four against him in six frames.
Look for Gonzales to go five or six innings, but struggle to keep the Sox off the board. Given Sale is pitching on the other side, he’ll need to be near perfect which is a lot to ask.
Boston should grab an early lead and hold it with Sale going the first six and the bullpen getting the outs needed to grab their first win of the season—even if they give up a run or two in the process. After Thursday, Boston should be 1-0 and the Mariners should fall back to 2-1.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 6, Mariners 3
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