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The Boston Red Sox will have a pitcher hitting for just the third time all season and first since April 3 when they head to Washington, D.C. to take on the Washington Nationals in their third interleague series of the year. The Sox are picking a good time to play the Nationals as they continue to struggle offensively. Rick Porcello will try and take advantage of the struggling offense as he pitches the series opener on Monday and tries to outduel former teammate Max Scherzer.
First pitch for the game between the Red Sox and Nationals is scheduled for Monday, July 2, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
It’s been a struggle recently for the Nationals. The team overcame a slow start to get back atop the NL East in late May and have since stumbled back to third place.
Washington’s 4-11 in their last 15 games and have been shutout in back-to-back games. They’ve been shout out in six of those 15 games.
The Nationals’ offense is just not there right now. They can’t score and that’s a huge problem when facing a dominant offensive team like the Red Sox.
Now Boston will be a bit hamstrung without a DH. They’ll have to put J.D. Martinez in the field which hurts the defense a bit. That could help a hit or two more drop in. With an outfield of Martinez, Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi, however, the team will still have a better outfield defense than many. That’s also a stacked offensive outfield.
The Nationals don’t have anyone right now that can matchup with Benintendi offensively, let alone Betts or Martinez. The team will need to do something most haven’t been able to do: shut them down.
Meanwhile, the Nationals just need to find some offense somewhere. Juan Soto is hitting. He’s batting .314 with four homers in June and has a 1.013 OPS in the month. Michael A. Taylor is getting on base with a .403 OBP this month and 10 steals. Anthony Rendon, however, is the only other bat having any level of success.
Bryce Harper is batting .184 this month and has just one home runs and 28 strikeouts in 22 games. Trea Turner is batting .236. Daniel Murphy has a .456 OPS since his return. These are important bats that aren’t hitting.
Probable Pitchers
A pair of former Tigers’ teammates are in line to face each other in the Nation’s Capital on Monday with Max Scherzer on turn for the Nationals and Rick Porcello set for the start for the Red Sox.
Both hurlers have Cy Young Awards on their shelf. Porcello won one with the Sox in 2016 while Scherzer has taken home the last two NL Cy Young Awards and has another one from his time in Detroit. He’s finished in the top-5 in voting each of the last five seasons.
Scherzer is the early favorite for another Cy Young this season. He’s 10-4 with a 2.04 ERA and 0.855 WHIP. He’s striking out a career high 13 per nine innings and already has 165 Ks in 114.2 innings. Barring injury, he’s got a real chance to crack 300 strikeouts.
With a 2.19 FIP, Scherzer continues to improve himself. In the past, homers have plagued him from time-to-time, but he’s lowered his home run rate each of the last two seasons after allowing an NL leading 31 bombs in 2016.
Interestingly, Scherzer has pitched very well against nearly every team he’s faced except the Red Sox. He’s made 10 starts against Boston and has a 6.05 ERA though he’s 4-4 overall.
The Nationals have also lost three of Scherzer’s last four starts. The veteran right-hander is 0-3 in that time, but he’s still pitching like an ace. The Nationals have lost those games having been shutout in all three, losing two 2-0 and losing his last start 1-0 against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Washington is 12-5 in this 17 starts and Scherzer himself is only 10-4, but they Nationals—with any offense—should have won at least 15 of those 17 starts.
Even with a Cy Young Award to his name, Porcello doesn’t come close to the level of dominance we come to expect from Scherzer, even given his career numbers against Boston.
Still, Porcello is having a fine season. He’s 9-3 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.133 WHIP. His 3.42 FIP show he’s finding success on more than just luck. He’s striking out 8.5 per nine innings, the highest rate of his career, and has allowed just 10 homers after leading the AL in homers last year with 38 allowed.
Porcello is coming off a rough start where he allowed four runs on eight hits—including two homers—in just 5.2 innings against the Angels. The Sox came back to win that game, but it was his second four-run game in his last three.
Live Betting
With the offense lacking so much in Washington, pitching becomes all the more important. Scherzer will go deep in the game, he always does, but the bullpen will need to close out the final couple innings.
Sean Doolittle and Kelvin Herrera are a good one-two punch and with Brandon Kintzler and Ryan Madson back from the DL, they help give Dave Martinez more options in the middle innings. The options in the pen are there for the Nationals. Will the lead be there for them to hold?
For the Red Sox, Craig Kimbrel is the lockdown closer. The Nationals will try to avoid having to face him. If he’s in the game, the game is as good as over given how poorly the Nationals are hitting.
Boston, however, has seen Joe Kelly struggle this month, but there are enough other options for Alex Cora to mix and match to get outs against the Nationals.
MLB Pick
The Nationals aren’t playing well right now. They’re not hitting and they’re a below .500 team at home. This is not a formula for success, but it’s hard to bet against Scherzer.
Of course, we’ve seen the Nats still lose when he’s on the mound and pitching well simply because they cannot score, but something has got to give. The team has some good players and while Porcello is a good pitcher, he’s not an ace like Scherzer.
Look for a low scoring game, again. The Nationals aren’t going to break out in a big way against Porcello, but between Soto, Harper and others, they should be able to scratch across a couple runs. From there, this game goes on Scherzer’s shoulders. He knows he need to pitch well to get the win and while many pitchers would crack under the pressure, Scherzer is the type to step up.
MLB Odds: Nationals 3, Red Sox 2
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