Days away from official elimination, the Boston Red Sox will journey to St. Petersburg over the weekend with no chance at playing in October. Instead, they’ll take on the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend in the role of spoiler as the franchise officially turns its attention to the 2020 season. Can the Sox play the Rays tough without the hope of playoff baseball or will Boston fall flat in this series, helping the Rays their quest for October baseball?
The three-game weekend series between the Red Sox and Rays starts on Friday, September 20, 2019 at Tropicana Field, with first pitch slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. The regional broadcasting networks will provide television coverage for these games.
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Odds Analysis
The Red Sox have been a .500 team since the start of August and are now basically just playing out the year as its been a mediocre season for a team that had high hopes coming into the year.
Boston has lost five of their last six games against AL East opponents and have basically just been treading water.
In the season series between these two clubs, the Rays have the advantage, winning nine of their 15 meetings. Tampa Bay is also playing great right now, going 13-4 over their last 17 games.
One interesting trend in Boston’s favor is their road record this season which is better than the Rays’ home record. The Red Sox have struggled at Fenway but played well with less pressure on the road. That bears out in their season series with Tampa Bay, too. Boston is 5-1 at Tropicana Field.
Probable Pitchers
The rotation, the Rays seemingly have the upper-hand in all three games of this series as they send Charlie Morton, Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough to the hill. The Sox are expected to counter with Rick Porcello and Nathan Eovaldi in the opener and final games of this series. A bullpen game with an opener seems likely in the middle game.
As for the Rays’ arms, the biggest question of the bunch is likely the durability and length from Glasnow. The talented young right-hander has made just 10 starts this season and two since his four-month absence. In those two starts, he’s pitched just five total innings, limited to just over 50 pitches in his last start. He’ll have a bit of a longer leash this weekend, but still figures to have a well-defined pitch count.
Even with the limit, however, Glasnow should at least provide quality. He looked good in his last start and has a 6-1 record and 2.03 ERA in his 53.1 innings of work. The Rays are 8-2 when he takes the ball.
As for the other two Rays’ starters, they’re a bit more of a given, particularly Morton in the opener. Morton is the veteran of the staff and has been the Rays’ best start all season long.
With a 3.16 ERA and 2.84 FIP, Morton provides quality, but he’s also given quite a bit of quantity, too, leading the team with 182.1 innings of work. He’s got a 1.102 WHIP in that time.
Tampa Bay is 20-11 when Morton takes the ball. He’s reliable for a quality start more times than not, barely accomplishing that in his last start against the Angels. He failed to reach that milestone the last time he faced Boston, giving up four runs in 4.2 innings, but was much better the last time he faced the Sox at home, giving up just a pair of runs in seven quality innings.
Yarbrough doesn’t have quite the same ERA as Morton, but he’s still had a very fine season splitting time between the starting rotation and serving as the long man following an opener. He’s 11-4 with a 3.78 ERA and impressive 0.938 WHIP in 133.1 innings. He’s been starting more often lately though he struggled in his last start again the Angels, showing signs of fatigue.
On the flip side of this series matchup, the Sox bring a ton of question marks to the mound against Tampa Bay.
With David Price banged up and Chris Sale on the shelf, the Sox are left with more lackluster starting options including Porcello and Eovaldi.
Porcello may be a former Cy Young Award winner, but he’s had a bad season by most accounts. He does have a 13-12 record but has pitched to a 5.77 ERA and 5.02 FIP. In 30 starts, he has a 1.441 WHIP and has 162.1 innings pitched.
Most recently, Porcello held the Phillies to two runs in five innings for the win, but really struggled in his starts prior to that and had a terrible go of it the last time he faced Tampa Bay.
Eovaldi, meanwhile, has been plagued with injuries and jostled between the bullpen and the rotation. He hasn’t been as effective as he was last season when healthy either. He’s 1-0 with a 5.81 ERA, 5.69 FIP and 1.538 WHIP. He’s also given up 11 home runs in just 39.1 innings as starter.
Live Betting
With a clear edge in the starting rotation, the Rays are well positioned to win this series, but their pitching advantage only grows when you factor in their bullpens.
Tampa Bay has the second-best bullpen ERA in baseball this season while the Red Sox have had issues with their pen all year. They went into the season without replacing closer Craig Kimbrel in the ninth and the initial options to closer floundered.
Eventually, the Sox did land on Brandon Workman as a their closer and he’s pitched well this year, but he’s been one of few bright spots in the pen.
The expanded rosters do give Alex Cora more options now, but most of those options are lackluster are best. Andrew Cashner has found some success in the pen after failing as a starter. He, Marcus Walden, and maybe Josh Taylor are about the best you can expect here.
As for the Rays, they’ve got Emilio Pagan as their closer with similar numbers to Workman, just much fewer walks, making him a more reliable last game option, getting into far less trouble. Diego Castillo, Oliver Drake, and Nick Anderson are amongst a collection of arms typically getting the job done as Kevin Cash excels as putting his pitchers in a position to win.
On offense is where the Sox have the edge, but is it enough?
The Rays have a strong offensive club, too, and one with plenty of quality players up-and-down the order. Austin Meadow’s numbers standout the most and he’s swinging a hot bat now, too, but the offense is far deeper. Random cast-off guys like Ji-Man Choi, Travis d’Arnaud and Avisail Garcia have been huge for the team along with others like Tommy Pham, Jesus Aguilar and Nate Lowe, amongst so many others.
Tampa Bay has a strong .759 OPS mark as a team, but the Sox sit at .811 and have scored the fourth most runs in baseball.
Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez were both MVP candidates last year with Betts winning the award. Those two are both swinging well right now with a 1.063 and .982 OPS respectively over the last month. Each have also hit seven bombs.
Along with those two, the Sox have Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers having huge seasons as well. All four have an OPS+ of at least 132 and at least 28 dingers. Really, outside of an ice-cold Andrew Benintendi, the Sox offense is chugging along.
MLB Pick
This weekend series could be the start of a lackluster finish to the season for the reigning World Series champion Red Sox. After a championship last season playing out the last couple weeks without a chance at October isn’t likely to provide much motivation. The Rays, on the other hand, still have something to play for.
Look for the Sox to steal a game in this series as they’re a better team on the road and do still have an elite level offense. It’s the pitching that’s been the issue for the Sox this season and those issues have magnified themselves here late in the year.
In the end, the Rays should take this series relatively easily. They could sweep, but that’s hard to bank on with a pitcher making just his third start since early May and another one that’s shown some signs of fatigue in his last few outings toeing the rubber in the final two games of the series. Boston should find a way in one of those with an offensive explosion.
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