The Chicago Cubs make the short journey up to Miller Park for a three-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers starting on Monday. This is as important as a series gets in June with the Brew Crew holding a half game lead on the charging Cubs. The NL Central race figures to go down to the wire, but a series win by either team in this series could serve as an important confidence booster. After all, this series will determine the division leader come the final out on Wednesday.
To kick off a three-game series between the Cubs and Brewers, the teams battle it out at Miller Park on Monday, June 11, 2018 beginning at 8:10 p.m. ET. The series opener will be broadcast on MLB Network while the series finale will be shown on WGN beginning at 2:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, June 13, 2018.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
The Brewers are an excellent home team, but the Cubs have a .600 record on the road and have won 11 of their last 14 games overall to close the gap in the standings between them and the Brewers. On top of that, Chicago already holds a 7-1 edge in the season series against Milwaukee.
Really, the biggest statistical difference between the Cubs and Brewers is on offense. Chicago has scored the second most runs in the NL at 311. Milwaukee has scored 285 in three fewer games. The Brewers have hit 15 more home runs than the Cubs, but have a lower average, OBP and slugging percentage, leading to a .766 OPS for Chicago compared to a .729 mark for the Brew Crew.
The Brewers are still a good offensive team, it’s just that the Cubs are better, especially with Anthony Rizzo officially back to his old ways.
With Rizzo and Kris Bryant producing on the corners, it allows the rest of the team to do its respective thing. Javier Baez can bring the pop without being as concerned about his OBP or strikeouts. He can do damage and, if he fails, pass it on to someone else in the lineup, including: Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora, Ben Zobrist or Ian Happ, all of whom have a OPS+ of at least 114. Milwaukee doesn’t have that same offensive depth.
Jesus Aguilar has been a pleasant surprise for the Brewers with ahis .297/.368/.558 slash line. He’s replaced Eric Thames and then some. He’s the real deal. Travis Shaw’s repeating his strong 2017, too. Add in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain at the top of the order, setting the table and this team can score. The problem, however, is the bottom of the order.
While the Cubs have a good hitter top to bottom, Milwaukee has more than just the pitchers’ spot that’s a void in the order. Orlando Arcia has a .209 average and .246 OBP. Manny Pina has a .638 OPS. Even Jonathan Villar has a pedestrian .323 OBP and little else to add to the mix.
Picking on the Brewers’ offense seems to be nitpicking a bit. Both offenses are better than average in the NL, it’s just comparing the two, the Cubs’ have more options to drive in the key runs.
Probable Pitchers
The Cubs will not use their best two starters in this three-game series due to the way the rotation falls. That’s great news for the Brewers, but Chicago still has good options set to take the mound. For the Cubs, Jose Quintana, Tyler Chatwood and Mike Montgomery are expected to get the starts. The Brewers have Junior Guerra, Chase Anderson and Jhoulys Chacin lined up.
In Game 1 of the series, Quintana gets the start. He’s been disappointing this year for the Cubbies. He’s 6-4, but has a 4.20 ERA and 1.368 WHIP. He’s looked more like the first-half Quintana from last year than the solid No.2 type starter the Cubs were hoping he’d be this season.
A favorable aspect to this matchup for the Cubs, however, is that it’s on the road. Quintana’s got rather extreme home/road splits, doing much better away from Wrigley Field. He’s 4-2 with a 2.62 ERA on the road and already has a win at Miller Park against the Brew Crew under his belt this season.
Going against the Cubs’ southpaw will we be Guerra, a righty who forced his way into this rotation by pitching very well. He’s made 11 starts and although he’s just 3-4, he has a 2.83 ERA and 1.144 WHIP. He’s also pitching exceptionally well right now, allowing only five earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 18 innings. Despite that, he hasn’t recorded a win since May 14. It’s just not getting the run support.
Given Quintana’s road numbers, he may be the best of the three starters set to take the mound for the Cubs. In the next two games, the Cubs have Chatwood—who walks more than anyone in the game—and Montgomery, a guy who’s been unable to maintain a spot in the Chicago rotation.
Chatwood has walked 56 batters in 58.1 innings. That’s almost a batter an inning. He’s walked at least five batters in eight of 12 starts despite averaging fewer than five innings a start. Even with a very low BABIP, he’s still posting a 1.783 WHIP, getting himself in a ton of trouble. He’s weaseled his way out of that trouble more than one would expect. His 3.86 ERA is more than a run lower than his 4.98 FIP for a reason.
Sure, Chatwood gets weak contact and doesn’t allow home runs, but too many walks have limited his innings total. He hasn’t even thrown 60 innings in 12 starts. He won’t go deep in the game and will give the Brewers several opportunities. It’s just a matter of the Brewers’ bats capitalizing on those opportunities.
As for Montgomery, the lefty doesn’t seem to have the full confidence of the front office as they constantly find another option rather than giving him a rotation spot. He’s starting now, however, with Yu Darvish on the shelf.
Interestingly, despite the team’s reluctance to start him, he’s pitched better in the rotation. He’s 2-0 in his three starts, allowing just two earned runs in 17.2 innings of work. He’s worked his way up to six innings and 95 pitches in his last start, meaning he shouldn’t be hindered by pitch count in his start on Wednesday’s series finale.
Against Chatwood on Tuesday and Montgomery on Wednesday, the Brewers will use two of their better starters: Anderson and Chacin, respectively.
Anderson has struggled his last three starts. After a great outing in his first start off the DL, lowering his ERA to 3.86, Anderson has allowed 12 runs combined in his last three starts, spanning 13.2 innings. He’s walked seven in those 13.2 innings, not nearly to the rate of Chatwood, but unlike the Cubs’ starter, the Anderson hasn’t been able to work around those walks.
When on, Anderson is a good pitcher. He had a 2.74 ERA in 25 starts last year and had a 2.86 ERA through April. He’s just hit a bump in the road, but hopes to re-find himself against the Cubs who held to two runs in six innings back in April.
As for Chacin, the most important stat in baseball is wins and losses as a team. Of course, personal wins for a pitcher is very team dependent, but there’s no hiding from the Brewers’ 11-3 record in Chacin’s starts.
The right-hander has some other positive numbers to rely on as well. He’s 5-1 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.248 WHIP. He’s allowed just six homers. His strikeout rate is low, but he’s never been a swing-and-miss guy. Instead, he relies on weak contact. As a result, sometimes base hits fall in.
Live Betting
We cannot examine a series between the Brewers and Cubs without dissecting their respective bullpens. The relievers have been instrumental to the success of both teams thus far. Whichever team that goes into the seventh with the lead should have no worries about closing out the contest.
We know that the Cubs have the better offense, but the bullpen advantage goes to the Brewers, but only slightly.
Milwaukee’s got the best bullpen in the game with a 2.54 ERA. The Cubs are third at 2.60. Both pens have thrown a ton of innings which could factor into team success in August and September. For now, both pens are pitching exceptionally well and should continue to do so.
The Brewers have a Cy Young contender in their pen with Josh Hader. He filled the closer role for a bit, but with Corey Knebel back, he can be used in any high-leverage situation. He’s striking out 17.8 per nine innings, that’s nearly two per inning.
Hader’s thrown 35.1 innings, allowing 10 hits and four earned runs. He’s got a 1.02 ERA, 0.98 FIP and 0.651 WHIP. He’s been amazing, but he doesn’t even have the best ERA in the pen. That distinction goes to Jeremy Jeffress. The former closer is 5-0 with a 0.59 ERA. His 0.815 WHIP and 2.77 FIP aren’t the same as Hader, but not bad.
Between Hader, Jeffress and a healthy Knebel, the Brewers can turn this into a six-inning affair. Of course, they can still win with less from the rotation. After all, Matt Albers has a 1.93 ERA in 28 innings, Jacob Barnes has a 2.76 FIP and Taylor Williams has 33 strikeouts in 24.1 innings. That’s only scratching the surface.
The Cubs, of course, have Brandon Morrow with a 1.66 ERA and 15 saves in the closer’s role while former closer Steve Cishek can close out the eighth with a 1.88 ERA. Add in Justin Wilson and the Cubs have the most legit closers in the game. Still, with Carl Edwards injured and Montgomery now in the rotation, there are some less familiar—and lessen proven—names in the middle innings.
MLB Pick
We have two elite bullpens facing off in this series with high stakes for a mid-June series. If these games go down to the wire, it could be an interesting series and we could be in for some extra innings.
It’s fair to expect an excellent, well-played and tightly contested series. The Cubs have the better offense, but both teams can swing the bat. The Brewers have the superior bullpen ERA, but both pens can lockdown the opposition.
The way the starters line up could break down the series. Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks aren’t scheduled to start this series. Those are the Cubs’ best arms, without them, the rotation is ordinary and, while the Brewers’ rotation lacks aces, it does have quality arms that can go five or six and give it over to the pen.
At the end of the day, look for three close games, but count on the Cubs to win the division, two games to one. The Brewers are too good—especially at home—to get swept, but Milwaukee’s kryptonite this year has been the Cubs. Chicago is 7-1 against Milwaukee already.
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
