Wednesday night will be Game 2 of a three game series between the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park. After the home opener festivities on Monday, Wednesday represents a return to business of sorts for these two teams. Both the Cubs and Braves figure to be in the race for October and each need to get off to a good start. The Braves had a rough go in Philadelphia and really need a win in this series—and this game.
First pitch for the game between the Cubs and Braves is scheduled for Wednesday, April 3, 2019, at 7:20 p.m. ET at SunTrust Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Braves and Cubs split their six game season series a year ago with the Braves getting the slight edge in total runs. The teams each won two of three as the visiting team. The Cubs are visiting here, though that doesn’t really make a great argument for them to win.
A better one would be to point at their offensive explosion their three-game series with the Rangers.
While it’s true the Texas pitching staff isn’t great, scoring 31 runs in three games is a statement regardless of the opposition.
The Cubs offense is stacked and should be better than in 2018 than the team that ranked fourth in the NL in runs scored.
The only addition to the group from last year is Daniel Descalso who went 3-for-5 on Sunday and is a nice option around the field, giving Joe Maddon extra depth and options to play matchups.
Maddon doesn’t use a set lineup. Instead, he tries to put his players in a position to succeed. Kris Bryant is healthy and swinging a great bat. Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Jason Heyward have all looked good in the early going.
On the other side, the Braves scored nearly as many runs as the Cubs last year and have a very good offense as well.
The team added Josh Donaldson to play third, deepening in the bench with Johan Camargo moving there despite a solid season as the starter in 2018.
Between Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Donaldson, the middle of the order in Atlanta is fearsome.
To start the year, the offense has been good, but the pitching has let the team down.
Probable Pitchers
Both the Cubs and Braves are expected to turn to the Opening Day starters to make the start on Wednesday with Jon Lester taking the ball for the Cubs opposite Julio Teheran for Atlanta.
Lester is as experienced as they come, pitching in his 14th Major League season at 35-years old. The southpaw has been an ace of his staff for some time, first in Boston then in Chicago, but has seen his stuff decline the last couple years.
In 2018, Lester still managed a rather impressive 18-6 record with a 3.32 ERA. That was enough to earn a top-10 finish in the NL Cy Young voting, but his FIP rose for the fourth straight year to 4.39, the highest he’s had since his age-23 season in 2007. The rise can mostly be attributed to an increasing walk rate and decreasing strikeout rate.
Despite the increasing FIP, he’s still pitching at an elite level and finding ways to get outs when it matters. He got the win in the Cubs’ opener, holding the Rangers to two runs over six innings. He only struck out three and did walk two, but keep the opposition off the board enough to put himself in position to get the win.
In his career against the Braves, Lester is 6-2 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in 58.1 innings spanning nine starts.
As for Teheran, he made his Major League debut in 2011 as a 20-year old after ranking as a top prospect.
The now 28-year old looked like an ace in the making in his first few years, particularly after his 14-8 rookie season in 2013 and his 2.89 ERA in 221 innings the following year. Unfortunately, he hasn’t gotten back to that point since.
Over the last two years, Teheran has produced rather average ERA+ seasons of 95 in 2017 and102 last year when he went 9-9 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.173 WHIP. Those numbers, however, looked good compared to his 4.83 FIP.
Teheran has struggled with command over the years. His fastball velocity has also been dropping, minimizing the effect of his off-speed stuff. When he pitched on opening day, he looked good. He showed better command than he had most of 2018 in both his fastball and slider. He also saw an uptick in velocity on his fastball compared to this time last year. In fact, his average fastball was only higher in three of his 31 starts last year.
Still, despite the positives, Teheran took the loss against the Phillies in a five inning stint where he allowed three runs on four hits.
He’s been good in his career against the Cubs, though his numbers aren’t quite as good as Lester’s against the Braves. He’s 3-1 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in eight starts against the Cubbies.
Live Betting
The bullpens are volatile for both teams. Bullpens are always a bit of a question mark, but the Cubs opted to not resolve their closer spot after losing Brandon Morrow for an extended period of time, again.
They have Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., and Steve Cishek as late game options, but they’ve all had some bumps in the road in the season’s opening series.
For the Braves, they’ve got some good arms, too, but theirs are much younger and less experienced, especially on the back end.
MLB Pick
There were positives to Teheran’s Opening Day start, but his actual production still left something to be desire. Look for the Cubs hot bats to get to him early and put up a few runs to grab an early lead. From there, the Cubs should add on against the middle relief for Atlanta.
On the other side, the Braves may be able to scratch across a few runs against Lester, but the lefty is one of the best at giving his team enough to give them a chance to win.
The bullpens for both teams haven’t been encouraging, but someone has to win. Both teams will add a few runs late, but the difference here is the Cubs production against Teheran should give them enough of the edge to get the win.
MLB Odds: Cub 7, Braves 5
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