In a 2016 World Series rematch, the Cleveland Indians host the Chicago Cubs in a brief two-game series starting on Tuesday. Both teams took their respective divisions again in 2017, but neither were repeat visitors to the Fall Classic. Here in the early going of 2018, the Tribe has ascended back to the top of the AL Central, but the Cubbies, at a game over-.500 sit in fourth place, eager to start playing better baseball. Some of that improvement will need to come from the rotation where Tyler Chatwood will lead the Cubs into battle on Tuesday as Josh Tomlin takes the hill for Cleveland.
First pitch for the game between the Cubs and Indians is scheduled for Tuesday, April 24, 2018, at 6:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field. The matchup will be shown on regional feeds and nationally on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
After a rough start to the year, the Indians have now won 11 of their last 14 games and are back at the top of the AL Central.
Cleveland’s improved play is, in part, due to the offense finally starting to heat up. The overall numbers are still dismal. Through 19 games, the Tribe has scored just 68 runs, but they plated seven against the Orioles on Sunday with two home runs from Jose Ramirez, giving him seven on the year, one behind Manny Machado and Mike Trout for the AL lead.
With a 2-for-4 day, Ramirez has improved his average to .236 and is back over the Mendoza Line while several other teammates are climbing back to respectability, too.
Still, some like Jason Kipnis and Edwin Encarnacion remain ice cold. Encarnacion, for instance, is batting .143 while Kipnis has a .493 OPS.
With Ramirez heating up, however, he and Michael Brantley are both swinging well and Francisco Lindor is still one of the more talented players in the sport.
By comparison, the Cubs have also played 19 games and have scored 110 runs in that time, 42 more than the Tribe.
The biggest question for the Cubs is the health of Kris Bryant who got beamed in the head—unintentionally—during an at-bat on Sunday. Bryant left the game and is going through the concussion protocol before he can return to action.
If he’s unable to play, that’s a huge blow. Bryant—as expected—was off to a great start, batting .319 with a 1.003 OPS.
Albert Almora Jr. is hitting well—when in the lineup—with a .327 average and Javier Baez is hitting just shy of .300 with seven long balls already. Those two, along with Kyle Schwarber are the only three Cubs hitters swinging hot bats right now. Anthony Rizzo is batting .146 and Willson Contreras has been good, but not great thus far.
Probable Pitchers
Neither Tyler Chatwood nor Josh Tomlin should generate a great deal of optimism for their respective team. They’re a combined 0-5 on the season with Chatwood walking the world and Tomlin allowing a long ball nearly every other inning.
So far, Tomlin has started just two games. He was skipped last time through the order and hasn’t made a start since April 10. That can be a good thing for flamethrowers, but Tomlin doesn’t thrive on velocity or stuff, he’s a master of command and too much rest could hinder the break on his pitches.
Overall, Tomlin has boasted a stellar walk rate over his career at 1.3 per nine innings. He led the league in that category in 2016 and lowered the rate in 2017.
While he doesn’t generally get himself in trouble with the free passes, he’s already walked four batters in just nine innings here in 2018. He’s also allowed four homers, 15 hits and nine runs—eight of them earned.
His poor start to 2018 is made worse by a back injury that further jeopardizes his ability to post a good start on Tuesday. Even assuming he’s healthy, however, he remains a large question mark.
The Indians need Tomlin to be on his game, in the strike zone and forcing weak contact. When he’s locating well, he’s an effective pitcher. We saw that in Cleveland’s run to the World Series in 2016. By default, he was the teams’ No.2 start behind Corey Kluber and delivered. That said, he did struggle some in the World Series against this same Cubs’ team, allowing six runs in seven innings. That’s the only time he’s faced the Cubs.
On the other side of this matchup, while Tomlin thrives on command, Tyler Chatwood has simply been unable to find the strike zone at times during his first three starts for Chicago.
Chatwood has lost all his starts, pitching 15.2 innings and allowing 14 walks, that’s nearly a walk an inning. He is striking out a ton, with 18 so far, but is getting himself in too much trouble. He’s shown he can get the big strikeout to get out of a jam, but if you play with fire too much, you get burned, and that’s what’s happened so far. He’s allowed eight runs and given his 1.29 strikeout to walk ratio and his 1.787 WHIP, it’s surprising he hasn’t allowed more.
The former Rockies hurler has always posted stellar numbers outside of Coors Field, giving optimism to the numbers he could produce on a different team. He’s still likely to be an important part of the Cubs rotation as the season progresses, but for now, he’s struggling.
In his last start, he threw 97 pitches and lasted just 4.2 innings with seven walks and seven strikeouts. His stuff is electric. He just needs it to be in the strike zone.
Live Betting
Many question the Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer when they opted to sign Brandon Morrow to fill the closer’s role rather an a more experienced ninth inning man.
Opting to sign Morrow, Steve Cishek and bringin back Brian Duensing rather than splurging for a big name in the ninth—so far—has paid dividends.
Morrow has notched four saves already and has yet to allow a run in his first seven innings. Cishek just had a bad outing on Sunday, allowing two runs in an inning, but he’s still allowed just three runs in 11 innings. Meanwhile, Duensing has gone 7.1 scoreless.
The Cubs’ bullpen is deep. In addition to the aforementioned, Carl Edwards has allowed one run in 10.2 innings with 20 strikeouts. Those are filthy numbers.
Cleveland’s bullpen has the better reputation when compared to the Cubs, but cannot replicate the same early season numbers.
Cody Allen and Andrew Miller have both yet to allow a run, but the depth in Chicago is better so far. Outside of the dominance of Miller and Allen, Nick Goody has been the only other truly reliable option in the early going.
Cleveland typically as the starters to go six or seven strong, handing it over to Miller and Allen for the rest of the action, but Tomlin isn’t likely to go as deep, making the fifth and sixth inning options more important on Tuesday.
If, however, Terry Francona can get to Miller and Allen with the lead, the game is over, we’ve seen that over their first 18.1 combined innings. They’ve allowed just 10 hits, struck out 25 and walked six.
MLB Pick
Tomlin’s long hiatus from the mound could be a disadvantage and, based on the numbers, he’s clearly the weakest option of the starting five, putting the Tribe at a disadvantage given the slow start to the offenses.
While the Cleveland offense has started to turn the corner, they’ll need to overcome what figures to be a poor start for Tomlin. They do have the bullpen to take over the game and hold the Cubs down after Tomlin exits, but the Tribe will need to score against Chatwood. While his command is an issue, his stuff is better than Tomlin and—thus—is the better bet to produce.
Take the Cubbies on the road in this series opener to topple the Indians with Chatwood outpitching Tomlin and the Cubs bullpen doing their part to hold a struggling—but improving—Cleveland offense at bay in what figures to be a close game.
MLB Odds: Cubs 6, Indians 5
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