The new-look, Derek Jeter-led Miami Marlins start their new era in South Florida, hosting the Chicago Cubs on Thursday afternoon. A year after he was an out-of-options fringe player, Jose Urena will lead the charge on the mound for the Fish opposite of veteran southpaw Jon Lester, making his seventh career Opening Day start. It’s been two very different stories heading into this Opening Day matchup for these two franchise and two pitchers.
First pitch for the game between the Cubs and Marlins is scheduled for Thursday, March 29, 2018, at 12:40 p.m. ET at Marlins Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN and WGN.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
The Marlins will enter the season littered with injuries to an already depleted roster of players. J.T. Realmuto, Martin Prado, J.T. Riddle and Dan Straily are dealing with injuries.
The team has players like Brian Anderson, Tomas Telis and Miguel Rojas in the starting lineup.
The Spring Training camp was essentially a tryout camp for most players and the resulting team leaves most baseball fans asking the question: Who is that? When looking at the roster.
The aging Brad Ziegler is the team’s closer and the bullpen—outside of maybe Kyle Barraclough—is full of has-beens, will-bes and never-weres.
For the Cubs, they got off to a rough start last year and were susceptible to some of the lesser teams early as they were battling with a World Series hangover.
This team did go late into October again in 2017, the third straight year in the NLCS, but they didn’t spend the offseason celebrating an historic victory. Instead, this team is hungry again, looking to get back on top which should result in improved early returns more in line with how the team played in the second half of 2017.
Probable Pitchers
In a rotation full of top-tier starters, it’s hard to choose an ace, but the Cubs are going with Jon Lester to get the start for the third straight Opening Day.
Lester was the runner-up for the NL Cy Young Award in 2016, but his 2017 season was a bit bumpy. Going into his age 34 season, Lester is now motivated to prove that his regression in 2017 was a bump in the road rather than a sign of regression for an aging player.
After a 2.44 ERA in 2016, his ERA ballooned to 4.33 in 2017. Despite the additional runs, Lester still showed the ability to win games with a 13-8 record. With a 100 ERA+, Lester was still an average producer when adjusted for park factor.
The lefty failed to throw 200 innings in 2017 for the first time since 2011 and he saw his FIP increase to 4.10, his highest since 2012. His FIP has slowly gone up each year since joining the Cubs prior to the 2015 campaign.
When boiled down, Lester is no longer an ace. He delivered one WAR last year. He’s allowing more base runners, too, which exacerbates his issues throwing to first
Last year, Lester pitched against the Marlins once, allowing three runs and four hits over seven frames. Of course, that was against a much different Miami club.
Pitching opposite Lester is a nice story for the Marlins: Jose Urena.
Urena was an out-of-options arm a year ago, earned a spot in the bullpen and made his way into the rotation, starting 28 games.
Urena ended up having a nice season with a 14-7 record and 3.82 ERA for a sub-.500 Marlins team. One of few pitchers to produce an ERA+ north of 100 for the Fish, Urena battled some command issues, getting out of jams and ultimately proving to be a solid big league starter.
There are concerns around his command. He walked 64 batters and hit 14 more in 169.2 innings. He also allowed 26 homers leading to a 5.20 FIP. While the standard numbers were better than Lester in 2017, the peripherals were far less impressive.
Urena have struggled with command again this spring. He has walked eight in 10.1 innings of Grapefruit League action. The Cubs are a good offense that can take advantage of a wild hurler.
Live Betting
This is not the same Marlins team winning three of seven games with the Cubs last year and keeping pace in the Wild Card race through August.
Last year’s Marlins squad boasted a strong defense and talented offense. The team was missing starting pitching and was shallow in the bullpen, but the position players were strong.
With Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Dee Gordon all on different teams, the Fish have lost 116 homers, 79 steals and 430 runs scored. Now, Justin Bour and J.T. Realmuto are the offensive centerpieces of the team, and Realmuto is on the shelf.
Lewis Brinson is an intriguing young player in centerfield. He had a huge spring and could be a nice piece. Starlin Castro is a good second baseman.
There are still pieces in the Marlins offense, but the overall unit is much weaker in 2018.
While the Marlins had some thump to keep up with Chicago last year—at least offensively—they’re a far cry from that in 2018.
Chicago scored the second most runs in the NL last year, just two runs behind the Rockies who play 81 games at Coors Field.
The Cubs lost Jon Jay this offseason, but return the same lineup otherwise. Ian Happ and Albert Almora Jr. will split time in center and can more than make up for the loss of Jay.
This is a potent offense with guys like Almora and Ben Zobrist providing quality at-bats off the bench.
MLB Pick
The Cubs have one of the game’s best lineups and a deep bullpen behind Lester. The potential weakness in Chicago may be the ninth inning, but these two teams aren’t close enough in talent to exploit that weakness.
Lester is not the pitcher he once was, but Urena’s also not the pitcher his 2017 numbers suggest.
Look for the Cubs to take advantage of the wildness of Urena and force him out of the game early with an inflated pitch count. From there, Chicago will roll to a rather easy win.
The Marlins do have some bats even with the mass exodus in the offseason so they won’t go down without a fight, but in the end, this team is severely undermanned compared to the Cubbies.
MLB Odds: Cubs 7, Marlins 4
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
