The Chicago Cubs are starting to play better baseball but like their counterparts on Saturday, the New York Mets, they’re mired in a tough division. With so much divisional competition, both teams need to win their out of division games. This series could go to the road team, but the hometown Mets have the edge on the mound for Saturday with Jacob deGrom making the start for New York with Chicago’s starter still up in the air.
First pitch for the game between the Cubs and Mets is scheduled for Saturday, June 2, 2018, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Citi Field. The matchup will be shown on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
After getting swept in a brief two-game set against Cleveland, the Cubs have bounced back with back-to-back series wins, topping the Giants and the Pirates. They’ll have the upper hand again in this series against the Mets though Saturday’s game may be more challenging.
In any case, Chicago has won four of six coming into the series and while the team’s been a bit streaky early on, things have been going well over the last week.
The same, of course, cannot be said for the Mets. New York is in free fall. They’ve lost seven of ten coming into the series and are 10-17 in their last 27 games. The Mets’ record sits around .500 on the strength of a 11-1 start. Since then, the Mets have been a well-below average team. They’re fourth place in the NL East and clearly the fourth best team in that division. The Cubs, on the other hand, are one of the better teams in its division though the NL Central, like the East, has four teams all still in the mix.
Other than trends, another major differentiator between the Mets and Cubs is the bullpen.
Chicago’s bullpen is far superior to the Mets. The Cubs did just put Carl Edwards Jr. on the DL, but they still have a ton of depth in the pen. Overall, they’re third in bullpen ERA at 2.67.
The Mets are closer to the bottom in that category and have recently robbed Peter to pay Paul by taking Seth Lugo out of the pen to start. Lugo was the best set up option to Jeurys Familia. With little bridging the gap, the Mets need more from their starters and—aside from Jacob deGrom—that’s a tough sell. Fortunately for the Mets, deGrom makes the start on Saturday.
Probable Pitchers
The main point on the starting pitching matchup for this game is that Jacob deGrom gets the ball for the Mets.
When deGrom pitches, the Mets have a chance to win no matter what else happens. The right-hander has been at his best this year. He’s 4-0 with a 1.52 ERA. He’s allowed two runs combined over his last seven games.
Despite that, the Mets are just 2-5 in that span as the bullpen and offense have left him down. Even so, when deGrom pitches, the Mets have a chance.
The 30-year old should be a Cy Young front runner given his performance. He’s leading the league with his ERA and has a 1.010 WHIP and 2.12 FIP to back it up. His walk rate is solid and his strikeout to walk ratio is great, at 4.47.
The righty has also limited the homers against him to just three in 65.1 innings, meaning he keeps the ball in the park and makes the opposition earn their way on base. He’ll keep the Cubs off the board, but is that enough? Given the team’s record in his last seven starts, that’s a legitimate question.
The Mets’ bats will try to finally get the ace some run support. Right now, it’s a question as to who they’ll face trying to get those runs.
Saturday marks Yu Darvish’s turn in the rotation. Whether he’ll come off the DL to make the start is still unknown. If not, the start will go to Mike Montgomery who went 5.2 scoreless against the Pirates in first start of year as he filled in for Darvish last time around.
Regardless of who starts and despite the terrible run support for deGrom, the Mets’ have a chance to score some runs.
Darvish has not been good in eight starts and will be rusty coming off the DL. He’s 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.425 WHIP in eight starts. He’s averaging just five innings a start, too.
The righty has walked far too many batter and has been plagued by the homer, too. He’s allowed 1.6 homers per nine innings and 4.7 walks per nine, leaving him with a 4.82 FIP. If the Mets can be patient and look for their pitch, they can get to him.
As for Montgomery, the southpaw may be the better option of the two. His walk and home run rates are both lower here in 2018 though he’s also been limited to a couple innings at a time, pitching primarily in relief. His last start was impressive, but Montgomery has much better numbers as a reliever than as a starter over his career.
Live Betting
deGrom will need to go deep in the game to give the bullpen a chance to get the win, but he’ll also need runs support.
The Mets’ haven’t been a good hitting team most of the year, but coming into the series, they’ve scored 42 runs in their last eight games. That’s more than five per game and plenty more than deGrom should need.
The list of players on the DL is long for New York. They miss Todd Frazier, Yoenis Cespedes and Wilmer Flores. The struggles of Jay Bruce, Amed Rosario and Jose Reyes aren’t helping things either.
Still, there are some bright spots. Asdrubal Cabrera is having an All-Star caliber season at second with a .307/.345/.547 slash line. He’s anchoring the order while Michael Conforto is finally heating up and Brandon Nimmo has quietly delivered whenever he’s been given a chance. If he had enough at-bats, his .969 OPS would lead the team by a wide margin.
Devin Mesoraco has been a nice producer of the last week, too, helping to deepen an otherwise very shallow lineup.
The Cubs are undoubtedly a better offensive club. They’ve scored the second most runs in the league and have been trending upward. No NL team has outscored them in May where they’re posting a .813 OPS as a team, the best in the NL.
Anthony Rizzo is heating up and now has an OPS+ of 104, making him one of nine players on the roster with an OPS+ north of 100 and at least 70 plate appearances. Kyle Schwarber and Javier Baez are providing the power. Pretty much the whole team outside of Baez is getting on base at a high clip. Baez has a .301 OBP. The next lowest on the active roster is .336 by Jason Heyward and .342 by Addison Russell.
MLB Pick
The Cubs are the better team and they’re starting to play better baseball after a lackluster start to the season, but look for the Mets to steal this game behind deGrom.
It’s hard to bet against deGrom right now despite the Mets struggles behind him. He’s dominating the opposition and while the Mets’ bullpen isn’t as deep as Chicago’s there are enough options in the latter innings to close this one out in favor of the home team.
Look for the Mets’ to scratch across a few runs regardless of whether Darvish or Montgomery make the start. They’re hitting better recently. The beginning of Darvish’s Cubs’ career has been rough and while Montgomery looked good in his last start, he’s been inconsistent as a starter in his career.
We know deGrom will give the Mets seven quality innings and will turn the ball over the pen with the lead. Look for the pen to close the doors and hand the Mets a win in this game.
MLB Odds: Mets 4, Cubs 3
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