The San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs meet for the second and final time this season in a three-game series. This time, it’ll be the Giants hosting. These two teams don’t exactly have a rivalry going, but here in the 2018 season, it is interesting to note that these two teams represent the last teams to win a World Series in an even-numbered season since the Philadelphia Phillies took the 2008 Fall Classic a decade ago.
First pitch of the series opener between the Cubs and Giants is scheduled for Monday, July 9, 2018, at 10:15 p.m. ET at AT&T Park. The three-game series concludes with a 3:45 p.m. ET start time on Wednesday, July 11, 2018. Both the first and final game of this series will be broadcast nationally on MLB Network.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
Continuing to keep their heads above water, the Giants are still just floating around-.500. The team seemed to have a bit of a run in late June against some easier competition and moved up as high as second in the NL West, but the team’s since lost five of six to drop behind the Rockies for fourth in the divisional race.
San Francisco is a fringe playoff team, but has managed to hang around to this point without its top pitchers. Those are back—one starting in this series—so this team could very well be better now than the record indicates. Still, the record puts the Giants well behind the Cubs.
Chicago’s not been as consistent as many expected from the Cubs, but have won seven of eight games and took two of three from the Giants when the two clubs meet in the Windy City. The Cubs outscored San Fran by eight runs in the three-game series.
Speaking of scoring, the Cubs have scored the most runs in the National League, plating 440 with a .762 OPS. This offense isn’t always the most consistent, but there’s no denying the lineup is deep and talented.
Meanwhile, the Giants have a .712 team OPS and 77 fewer runs scored despite playing five extra games. Chicago’s gotten the job done with a few more homers than San Fran, but moreso with a much better OBP, giving the Cubs more chances with runners on base.
On the mound, the Cubs also have the edge over San Francisco in bullpen ERA at 3.12 compared to 3.72 for the Giants.
Probable Pitchers
The series will kick off with an interesting pitching matchup featuring the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks and the Giants’ Andrew Suarez.
Hendrick has the better track record though he’s been struggling of late and is looking for first win in nearly a month. He’s 1-5 in last seven games and his fastball command has been off, leading to his troubles.
He’s 5-8 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.247 WHIP overall and the Cubs are only 6-11 in his starts. His command being off is huge for Hendricks who doesn’t have the overpowering stuff to overcome bad location. Instead, he needs to put the ball in the right spot to have success. He’s not able to do that right now.
He did, however, show some signs in his last start. The righty, however, still allowed three runs in five innings as Hendricks continues to have a short leash from Joe Maddon. He’s not being allowed to go deep in games.
As for Suarez, the lefty has been throwing the ball very well lately. He had a 2.62 ERA in six June starts and built from that with a seven-inning, one-run performance against the Rockies—in Colorado—in his last start. The lefty will be facing the Cubs for the first time on Monday, allowing him a bit of an edge as the Chicago hitters get to see how his stuff moves for the first time.
At just 3-5, Suarez’s record isn’t impressive, but he’s been the most consistent starter for the Giants with his 3.92 ERA and 3.56 FIP, putting him at a 101 ERA+ and basically the definition of a mid-rotation starter.
In the final two games of the series, the Cubs have a pair of southpaws lined up to make the starts: Jose Quintana on Tuesday and Mike Montgomery on Wednesday.
Quintana finally snapped a winless streak of over a month with a win in his last start, topping the Tigers. While Detroit isn’t a difficult opponent, it was still a great sign to see him post a quality start. He’ll look to keep that momentum going on Tuesday, but the Giants could prove problematic. Quintana is 0-3 with a 5.82 ERA in three starts against San Francisco in his career including a poor performance against them back in May.
The season hasn’t gone according to plan for Quintana. The overall numbers are okay at 7-6 with a 4.22 ERA, but his ERA+ is just 99 and his FIP is 1.407, that’s not what he was supposed to deliver. He’s pitching more like a No.4 starter than a No.2.
The walk rate is the biggest concern for Quintana right now at 4.2 per nine innings while the home run rate is up, too. He allowed two long balls in his solid six against Detroit. He’s missing his spots too often, in the zone and out and needs to work on command. That said, his last start was encouraging after a tough couple starts back-to-back, allowing seven runs and 16 hits in 10.1 innings.
As for Montgomery, the southpaw has been pretty good since joining the rotation, but allowed three runs in five innings in his last start against the Reds.
Overall, he’s 3-3 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.239 WHIP in 71 innings of work, split between the rotation and the bullpen.
In the rotation, Montgomery is 3-2 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.117 WHP in eight starts. He’s also pitched far better on the road than at home. Away from Wrigley, he’s got a 2.09 ERA and 0.828 WHIP in 38.2 innings of work. The walk rate is surprisingly way down on the road compared to at home. It’s probably a good thing for Montgomery that this series in being played out by the bay.
The final two starters for the Giants in this series haven’t been announced as the San Francisco rotation remains in flux. Johnny Cueto and Dereck Rodriguez would be on normal rest for those two starts, though Cueto is just coming back from more than two months on the shelf while Rodriguez is still a youngster. They could be pushed back, but with Derek Holland now being used in relief and Chris Stratton off the roster, the two seem like the likely choices.
Cueto is 3-1 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.919 WHIP in six starts this year, spread over 37 innings. He’s does well to limit base runners, but has allowed three home runs and has a 6.8 strikeout per nine inning ratio, down nearly a strikeout a game from his career norm.
Of course, any numbers Cueto has generated this year are hard to rely on given the small sample size. That said, Cueto has been an ace pitcher throughout his career and was putting up those type of numbers again in April prior to his injury. In his first start back, however, the 32-year old right-hander had a little rust, allowing five runs in five innings, giving up 10 hits and two of his three homers on the year to the Cardinals.
Cueto will certainly look for more consistency in start No.2, but until we see him return to form, it’s fair to remain skeptical.
Skepticism is also fair for Rodriguez who at 26-year old has finally made his big-league debut. He’s made eight appearances since his promotion—seven starts—and has done well in the limited action with a 3-1 record and 3.09 ERA. His 3.42 FIP and 1.292 WHIP are also showing that while the sampe size is still small, the peripherals support how well he’s pitching. Essentially, he’s limiting home runs, striking out enough and showcasing solid command for a rookie.
While Cueto struggled in his last start against the Cardinals, Rodriguez went 6.2 innings and allowed only two runs on five hits. It was his third straight quality start.
Rodriguez is a little old for his Major League debut at 26, but his pitching speaks for itself. Before his promotion, he had a 3.40 ERA and 4-1 record in nine PCL starts.
Live Betting
The Cubs have the better offense and the better bullpen, but the more recent stats are usually more telling than the season long ones for a look at an individual game or series.
Given that, the Cubs have a few interesting players to watch, namely Javier Baez. Baez was red hot early in the seasons, but had been cruising on those early season numbers until recently. Over his last 27 games, however, he’s driven in 17 runs and scored 21 more. He’s only hit three homers, but has 11 doubles and a .382 average along with a .423 OBP.
Baez is hitting and so are Willson Contreras and Kyle Schwarber who have been on fire in the first week of July.
The pen is also pitching well right now. Through the first week of July, Dillon Maples and Steve Cishek were the only two relievers to allow a run.
On the Giants’ side of things, Mark Melancon is a bit off and nobody on offense can match up with Baez or even Contreras or Schwarber right now. Gorky Hernandez may be one of the hotter bats right now and while he’s having a nice season, he’s not nearly the hitter of the other three.
MLB Pick
The Giants have surprisingly been able to hold on despite a pitching staff that has managed to survive a ton of injuries.
San Francisco is a scary team to play, but they don’t quite stack up against the Cubs, even at home. Look for Chicago to take the series, but the Giants to keep each game close and grab one win to avoid the sweep.
In the end, the Cubs are the better team—at least on paper. With the better offense, defense and pitching, the Giants don’t really have a facet of the game they can lean on to outduel the Cubs.
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
