One of the game’s best rivalries takes center stage on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball with the St. Louis Cardinals playing host to the Chicago Cubs in the finale of a three game weekend series. In the last couple years, the Cubs have had the edge in this series, but St. Louis is looking to close the gap in 2018. Starting in this game for the Cubs is veteran lefty Jon Lester while the Cardinals haven’t yet announced their starter. They could go with Michael Wacha on normal rest.
First pitch for the game between the Cubs and Cardinals is scheduled for Sunday, May 6, 2018, at 8:05 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Cardinals led the Cubs by half a game going into the series as the top four teams in the NL Central were separated by just a game and a half.
Of course, it’s still very early in the season, but with the talent in the division, this could end up being an important series as the season series is currently split at a game apiece.
Both St. Louis and Chicago fall in the middle of the pack in overall runs scored by team. The Cubs are No.14 with 136 runs and the Cards are just behind with 132. Of course, the Cardinals did play an extra game, spreading the gap just a little.
The Cubs are a better offensive team than they’ve shown so far. Anthony Rizzo has been ice cold to start the year though Joe Maddon did shift him to the leadoff spot on Wednesday and he delivered with a homer. That move helped break Rizzo out of a slump a season ago and Maddon and the Cubbies are hoping for similar results again.
Getting Rizzo hot would go a long way for this lineup. Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Javier Baez are already hitting well. Adding Rizzo to the mix is key, particularly in the power department where Schwarber and Baez have both hit seven bombs while nobody else has more than three.
St. Louis is also still waiting on a few proven hitters to break out of early slumps. Marcell Ozuna has yet to prove he’s worth the acquisition price. He’s driven in 17, but his .591 OPS and 28:3 strikeout to walk ratio is dismal.
Kolten Wong, Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler, three of the team’s primary table setters, are also leaving the table barren for the big bats like Tommy Pham who is swinging well with a 170 OPS+, but has only 11 RBIs.
Probable Pitchers
With Adam Wainwright on the DL and Jake Flaherty in the minors, Michael Wacha is likely to get the ball on Sunday on normal rest.
Wacha last pitched on Tuesday against the White Sox where he got the no-decision, but the Cardinals won their fifth straight game with Wacha on the mound. Overall, the right-hander is 4-1 on the year.
In six starts, Wacha has pitched between 89 and 98 pitches as Mike Matheny seems reluctant to let him hit triple digits. The conservative pitch count has kept Wacha limited to 32.1 innings, that’s an average of just under 5.1 innings a start.
While on the mound, Wacha has delivered and kept his team in the game as apparent by St. Louis’s 5-1 record in games he starts. He’s got a 3.62 ERA though his 1.392 WHIP is a bit high.
Walks have been the weak link to Wacha’s game. He’s already issued 15 free passes. He’s kept the hits—and homers—in check, but with a walk rate of 4.2 per nine innings, Wacha has needed to navigate his way out of trouble. He’s also wasted his limited pitches, further eating into how deep he’s been able to go in games.
Pitch count is less of an issue for Jon Lester who starts for the Cubs. He’s thrown over 100 pitches in each of his last two starts.
Lester has allowed earned runs in every other start, holding the opposition to no runs—or unearned runs—in the other outings. He went 5.2 innings with two runs—both unearned—on Monday against the Rockies. Based on the pattern, he’s due to give up a few earned runs.
At 2-1, Lester has a 2.73 ERA here in 2018 and the Cubs are 5-1 when he takes the hill. He’s been the most reliable starter to date.
With his struggles throwing to first, the Cardinals will try to get on and exploit it, but he’s struggled with that his whole career and is still 161-93 with a 3.50 ERA. In 15 starts against St. Louis, Lester is 6-4 with a 2.16 ERA.
Live Betting
When the Cubs let Wade Davis walk, replacing him with Brandon Morrow in the ninth, it sparked questions, but Morrow has delivered in the closer’s role. He’s notched seven saves and hasn’t allowed a run in 10 innings. He’s allowed six hits and walked three in that time.
Leading into Morrow, the Cubs have a collection of solid arms, all throwing the ball quite well in the early going. Lefties Mike Montgomery and Justin Wilson are the only two relievers showing any issues with Montgomery being a bit too hittable and Wilson struggling to find his command.
The Cubs have overcome that, however, as Brian Duensing has provided nine shutout innings in 14 games, serving as an effective LOOGY.
From the right side, Carl Edwards Jr., Steve Cishek and Pedro Strop are a formidable trio of options.
While St. Louis has had Bud Norris fill in admirably in the ninth inning, he was supposed to turn the role over to Greg Holland by now, but Holland continues to show rust thanks to his late start.
Holland is still unpredictable, Luke Gregorson—who was supposed to close before the Holland signing—is just off the DL and hasn’t thrown well either. Norris has nailed down the ninth while Jordan Hicks has proven to be an invaluable set up man, but the Cardinals bullpen, for now, is a two man show. Dominic Leon, Matthew Bowman and Tyler Lyons have been way too unpredictable.
MLB Pick
In rivalry games like this, unpredictable things happen all the time and with these two teams neck-and-neck in many respects on the young season, this figures to be a close contest.
Lester will probably go deeper in the game, but Wacha’s found a way to get the win four times already. Don’t look for him to get it here. This game should come down to the bullpens and while the Cardinals have managed to get good results from a few arms, the Cubs have the better—and deeper—pen.
Look for a close game down to the end with the Cubs grabbing a late lead on the Cardinals’ pen and carrying that to victory.
MLB Odds: Cubs 4, Cardinals 3
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