Rivalry games are always fun and ESPN gets the series finale of the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs, one of the more heated rivalries in the game between two teams in the thick of the NL Central race. The Cardinals have owned the season series so far and play this one at home. They’ll try to extend their dominance over the Cubbies on Sunday behind rookie right-hander Jack Flaherty while the Cubs turn to Jose Quintana to help maintain their lead over the Cards in the division standings.
First pitch for the game between the Cubs and Cardinals is scheduled for Sunday, June 17, 2018, at 8:05 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
Both the Cubs and Cardinals have postseason aspirations with the same preliminary goal in mind: the NL Central crown.
Chicago looks to be in better position to realize that goal than St. Louis although the Cardinals have won four of the first five meetings between the two teams.
The Cubs enter the series with the Cardinals on a bit of a down turn, losing three of their last four games while dropping a series to the first place Milwaukee Brewers. Still, over a longer stretch, the Cubs are 12-5 in their last 17 games as the rotation is starting to come together with an improve Quintana and the offense is starting to roll, too.
On the other side, the Cardinals have also dropped three of their last four with a series loss against the Padres earlier this week. They’re 10-8 in their last 18, but have been hot and cold most of the year.
One positive for the Cardinals has been the recent play of Marcell Ozuna. The slugging outfielder was supposed provide some much needed pop in the heart of the order. That didn’t come through the first two months of the year. He’s got a 106 OPS+ and eight homers, but here in June he’s hit five of those eight dingers and has a .400/.449/.778 slash line in 12 games.
Probable Pitchers
After a slow start to the season, Jose Quintana has turned things around and it’s no coincidence that his improved pitching has coincided with the Cubs improved play.
Quintana is 6-4 with a 4.09 ERA overall. His 1.336 WHIP and 4.36 FIP are a result of a high walk rate at 4.2 per nine innings. He was also missing in the zone early and has allowed 10 homers in his 13 games.
Over his last three starts, he’s shown better command and a better ability to get out of trouble, allowing two runs or fewer in each. He limited a good hitting Brewers team to just a pair of solo home runs over six innings in his last start.
The Cubs’ southpaw has been better on the road than at home this season so it’s a good thing for Chicago this game is in St. Louis, or at least it’s a good thing for Quintana this game isn’t in the Windy City. He’s 4-2 with a 2.68 ERA in seven road starts.
Over his career, Quintana has faced the Cardinals five times and has done well, going 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA despite an inflated WHIP. While the overall numbers are good, he took his only career loss against the Red Birds in his only start against them this year, going just four innings back on May 4. He didn’t allow an earned run in the game, but three unearned runs scored as he allowed five hits and walked four in those four frames.
On the other side of this matchup, the Cardinals are sending rookie Jake Flaherty to the hill in this primetime showdown. The young right-hander has delivered when called up. He’s been up and down a bit, but still ranks second in ERA amongst rookie starters at 2.96 while his strikeout rate is third.
As noted, he’s been up-and-down some, but since returning to the rotation, he’s 2-1 with a 2.76 ERA, trying to show he belongs in this rotation to stay.
Overall, Flaherty has made eight starts with a 3-2 record and 1.095 WHIP to go along with that 2.96 ERA he’s sported in his 45.2 innings. He’s not going deep in games as Mike Matheny’s had a short hook, but he’s delivered quality innings while he’s been on the mound.
The 22-year old has allowed no more than one run in five of his eight starts and has allowed more than three just once. He’s coming off a one runs, 6.1 inning performance against the Padres.
In his career, Flaherty has one career appearance against the Cubs, coming last September. He pitched one inning in relief, not allowing a hit, run or walk.
Live Betting
With Ozuna finally hitting for the Cardinals, the line-up lengthens out. Jose Martinez continues to swing a surprisingly hot bat. His .321 average and .906 OPS has made it nearly impossible to take him out of the lineup.
From Martinez to Ozuna to Tommy Pham, there are some quality hitters in the order, but there are a couple questions, too. Dexter Fowler—the former Cub—is still hitting just .171 and Kolton Wong is batting .182. Both can be replaced, but Mike Matheny likes sticking with is proven players.
Joe Maddon, on the other side, plays matchups far more. Of course, Maddon’s got eight players with an OPS+ north of 100, giving him more leeway to do so.
The Cubs team OPS is 40-points higher than the Cubs and they’ve scored 37 more runs in fewer games. Here in June, the Cardinals’ offense has been a bit better than Chicago’s, but both rank in the bottom third of baseball in runs scored in June.
With the offenses even and both pitchers throwing well, this could come down to the bullpens which favors the Cubs.
Bud Norris and Jordan Hicks have done a good job in the back end, but the Cardinals will need more than those two as Flaherty is unlikely to go more than six innings. That leaves a gap as the Cardinals’ bullpen ERA is nearly two runs higher than the Cubs’.
MLB Pick
The middle innings of relief is the kryptonite for the Cardinals—well, that and defense. Both could bite St. Louis in this matchup.
Look for Quintana and Flaherty to engage in a pitchers’ duel early. Both of pitched well recently with Quintana specifically thriving on the road.
The offenses will scratch across a few runs. The Cubs have too many good hitters and with Ozuna swinging better he could get into one for the Cardinals.
Ultimately, look for this game to come down to the later innings. The Cubs should be able to take advantage of the middle of the St. Louis bullpen and put up a few runs there to grab the lead. The Cubs’ pen with Brandon Morrow, Steve Cishek, Pedro Strop and company can then hold the advantage, giving Chicago the win on the road.
MLB Odds: Cubs 5, Cardinals 3
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