The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals meet on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball yet again as the wrap up a three game weekend series. This is the eighth meeting between these two teams since the All-Star break a week and a half ago. We’ve seen these two teams match up time and time again so there’s little mystery left including with each team’s starter. Kyle Hendricks and Jon Gant are slated to match up in this series finale.
First pitch of the game between the Cubs at Cardinals is scheduled for Sunday, July 29, 2018, at 8:05 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. The matchup will be televised nationally on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Cardinals are lounging around .500 without a clear direction for this year or the future. The team fired Mike Matheny prior to the All-Star Game hoping to spark the clubhouse, but since that team, the team has played the same lethargic style of baseball they had under the former skipper.
The roster for St. Louis is a clunky one with pieces that don’t seem to fit. Jose Martinez is one of the best hitters on the team, but is a terrible defender at first. He’s hurting the team defensively and has a 124 OPS+, but just 0.7 WAR as a result.
Despite the terrible defense, the Cardinals need him in the order so he’s at first, sliding Matt Carpenter to third where he’s sub-par defensively. While Carpenter has been hitting like Babe Ruth—especially against the Cubs—his value to the team is limited by his defense as well.
Then, the team has Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna and Dexter Fowler in the outfield. While those names are all good, the production is not. Fowler is still hitting just .181, Ozuna isn’t half the player the Cardinals thought they were acquiring, and Pham has been a league average hitter in aggregate that’s wildly inconsistent.
Meanwhile, on the other side of this matchup, the Cubs are cruising. Having regained the top spot in the NL Central, the Cubs seem motivated not to give it back.
While St. Louis has all the wrong players in the wrong positions, the Cubs have all the right players and plenty of flexibility to move them around and maximize their skill set.
While recent injuries to Kris Bryant and Javier Baez are troublesome, there are more than enough pieces to cover the cracks including the likes of Ben Zobrist who can move around the infield and Ian Happ who has some versatility himself.
As a team, the Cubs have scored the most runs in the NL and have enough power, but are really getting the job done thanks to a .347 team OBP whereas the Cardinals have hit 25 home homers, but aren’t able to make the same type of contact with a much lower average, fewer doubles and fewer base runners.
When you have players getting on base up and down the order, that helps to keep the line moving and gives the team many more chances to score.
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Hendricks broke out in a big way as a rookie in 2014 and put up a string of solid seasons through 2017, including one where he led the NL in ERA at 2.13 in 2016.
Despite the great regular season numbers, come postseason time, Joe Maddon always appeared reluctant to use Hendricks as one would typically use a top of the rotation arm. Instead, he’s been heavily protected and given an early hook.
That’s continued into this year where the righty is essentially a five-inning pitcher. In his last start, he went five, too, striking out eight in a game against the D-Backs.
Hendricks’ season starts are the worst of his career as he’s 6-9 with a 4.05 ERA and 4.48 FIP. He’s still limiting the free passes, but has allowed 18 homers in his 21 starts, giving him a 1.4 home run per nine inning ratio, double what he posted in his Cy Young worthy 2016 campaign.
The wily right-hander doesn’t possess dominating stuff. He needs to rely on location and movement to get weak contact and record outs. Despite the strong strikeout performance against Arizona, he doesn’t typically get that many Ks. As a result, he’s dependent on a good defense around him.
While the defense for the Cubs has some great pieces, there are some trouble spots here and there, too and if those are exposed, Hendricks can get into trouble.
Still, while Hendricks’ season isn’t up to his usual standards, he’s still got a 105 ERA+ which is good enough to categorize him as a very good mid-rotation starter. Against the Cards this year, however, he’s been less than that. He allowed three runs and nine hits in 4.2 innings two starts ago and while he had a quality start against them back in June, it just barely qualified with six innings and three runs allowed. He also very uncharacteristically walked four St. Louis batters in that game.
Another interesting note about Hendricks is the Cubs’ record when he starts, Chicago is 8-13 in his starts this year though they’re 3-2 in his last five starts including a win over St. Louis.
Speaking of St. Louis, their counter to Hendricks is the young righty Jon Gant.
Injuries have hit the St. Louis rotation hard, but the Cards have been getting good outings by the young fill ins. Gant will get a chance on Sunday night after he blanked the Cubs in five innings last week in a game the Cardinals eventually won.
Gant is 1-1 with a 2.22 ERA in four starts since filling in for Michael Wacha and is 3-3 with a 3.17 ERA in his 13 total appearances, half of which came in the pen.
The 25-year old is still a bit wild, however. He has 27 walks in 55 innings and a measly 1.7 strikeout to walk ratio.
The production has been very good for Gant while in the Majors this year and he’s seemingly adjusted from his time with the big club over the previous two seasons.
Of course, his time in Triple-A with Memphis has been even more impressive. Despite pitching in a hitter friendly Pacific Coast League, Gant went 5-1 with a 1.65 ERA in eight starts, spanning 49 innings.
Live Betting
As the game progresses, the Cubs would seemingly be in a better and better position to get the win even playing on the road.
While Brandon Morrow is back on the DL, Steve Cishek, Pedro Strop, Justin Wilson, Carl Edwards Jr., Randy Rosario and Jesse Chavez make for one deep bullpen with varying looks, but excellent stuff all around.
Hendricks won’t be going deep in the game for the Cubs, but Chicago has a plethora of quality options behind him to give the team four innings. Those options aren’t there for the Cardinals.
Bud Norris continues to be a solid closer for the Cardinals. He was signed as a middle inning guy, but has settled into the role and done well, but he did that with the Angels last year before falling apart in the second half.
So far, Norris has continued to be okay. He’s seen his ERA bump up a bit lately, but over the last month, he’s still notched four saves in five chances and been generally solid, though his WHIP and average against have bumped upwards making for a bit more late game excitement. Still, he’s generally getting the job done.
The problem, however, is who else is pitching well in the pen? It’s been a lost season for Tyler Lyons and Greg Holland and Brett Cecil are the butt of most of the jokes in St. Louis for good reason.
Even Jordan Hicks and John Brebbia who, at different times, have been good pieces in the pen, are struggling right now with the former allowing 10 runs in his last 10 appearances and the latter giving up six in his last seven.
MLB Pick
This shouldn’t be close. The Cubs are the better team. They’re swinging the bats better, far better defensively and much deeper in the bullpen.
The pitching matchup in this game features a 25-year with limited experience for the Cardinals who was never thought that highly of by the organization relative to other former prospects against a former NL ERA leader.
All of the ingredients add up to a mismatch of epic proportions, but in a rivalry game like this, anything can happen.
Still, there’s too much going against St. Louis to bet on a Cardinal win. Even so, look for this game to be closer than the matchup would otherwise indicate. Gant pitched well against the Cubs last time he faced them, but went only five innings.
Look for Gant to pitch well for the Cardinals again, keeping them in the game, but the Cardinal bullpen will let this one get away.
Count on the Cubs to build a lead in the middle innings and carry that to a victory even without Morrow available to close it out.
MLB Odds: Cubs 7, Cardinals 4
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