The Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals meet in primetime on Sunday night in the finale of a three-game weekend series. Coming into the year, this was supposed to be a showdown between two teams contending for a division title. While the Cubs seem to be living up to that billing, the Nationals are not. Chicago is the better team, but can the Cubbies take this series finale on the road?
First pitch for the game between the Cubs and Nationalsis scheduled for Sunday, May 19, 2019, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Cubs should be favored in this game despite the venue given how they’ve been playing.
Even after a loss on Wednesday night, Chicago is still 13-3 in their last 16 games and 23-8 over their last 31. They’ve been played great baseball, getting plenty of offense, good pitching and strong defense. The Nationals have been the opposite.
Despite a strong top of the rotation, but pitching has been suspect for the Nationals of late. The offense has gone cold, too. Washington is just 6-14 in their last 20 and that came after a win on Wednesday night against the Mets.
As noted, the offense and bullpen favor the Cubs. Let’s focus on the bats for a moment.
The Nationals haven’t gotten what they hoped from Brian Dozier and with the injury to Trea Turner, there isn’t much to get excited about up the middle in the infield.
While Anthony Rendon has gone off this year, Juan Soto has regressed in his sophomore year. Victor Robles has been okay. Adam Eaton is getting on base. There are some pieces, but as a whole the Nationals have a .704 team OPS. That’s not going to cut it, particularly when matched against a team like Chicago.
The cubs have a .794 OPS, second in the NL only to the Dodgers. They’re getting star level production form Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Willson Contreras.
There are a few holes in the Cubs’ lineup, too, but much fewer.
Probable Pitchers
The Cubs and Nationals are two teams heading in opposite directions despite similar preseason outlooks according to most national publications. The pitching matchup in this one perfectly illustrates that.
Kyle Hendricks and Jeremy Hellickson are slated to get the starts for their respective teams.
The 29-year old Hendricks comes into play having been as good as anybody in the game in his three starts in the month of May. After pitching to a 1-4 record and 5.33 ERA in April, he’s 2-0 in three May starts, throwing at least eight innings in each start and allowing only two runs—one earned—in 25 innings of work.
The right-handers’ ERA is down to 2.86 on the season and though he’s not a big strikeout pitcher, he’s shown the ability to get swing and miss when needed, but more so, he’s been amazing at inducing weak contact on even some of the game’s best hitters.
Hendricks is throwing the ball out of his mind right now. Not only is he having similar success to what he did in 2016 when he led the NL in ERA, he’s also going deep in games, while keeping his pitch count in check and thus saving the bullpen.
Can he keep things going against Washington? History is on his side as he’s faced Washington seven times in his career and has a 2.61 ERA.
For as good as Hendricks has been in May, Hellickson has been nearly that bad.
The veteran right-hander for the Nationals has lost all three of his starts this May. He gave up a grand slam in the first inning of his last start, ending up allowing five total runs in the game for the third time in his last five starts.
Overall, Hellickson is 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA in 36 innings. He’s got a 5.80 FIP and 1.667 WHIP as home runs are flying against this flyball pitcher and the walks are elevated with 4.3 BB:9.
The 32-year old has been especially bad at home this year, allowing 15 runs in 15.2 innings with 20 hits—four homers—and just six strikeouts. He’s being squared up on nearly every pitch.
Things don’t look any better when you consider Hellickson’s career against the Cubs. He’s only faced them three times, but has a 6.06 ERA in 16.1 innings.
Live Betting
The Cubs’ bullpen struggled out of the gate as Chicago limped through its first road trip. Since then, however, the pen has looked good.
Even without Brandon Morrow and Pedro Strop, Brach Brach, Steve Cishek and Brandon Kintzler give the Cubs three former closers all about to shut the door on games in the later innings.
Since the start of May the combo of Brach, Cisheck, Kintzler, Mike Montgomery, and Carl Edwards Jr. have allowed a sub-1 ERA in 27.1 innings of work.
This pen is just shutting down the competition right now. Meanwhile, the Nationals’ pen is not.
Save for Sean Doolittle, the Nationals’ bullpen is a mess. Doolittle has a 0.95 ERA in 19 innings, but even Kyle Barraclough, who had been dependable, blew up and allowed four runs in his last appearance.
Hellickson isn’t going to go deep in this game, but the options to follow him aren’t encouraging. Justin Miller has a 3.21 ERA in 14 innings, but has allowed four home runs and has just nine strikeouts. Wadner Suero can get the swing and miss, but his ERA is north of six.
MLB Pick
Look for this one to be all Cubs. Chicago is better in nearly every facet of the game. They have a red-hot hurler on the mound who should be able to shut down the Nationals’ bats while going deep in the game.
While injuries in the pen are concerning, there are more than enough quality arms to go a couple innings as needed and close down a game that should be well in hand before Joe Madden goes to the bullpen.
Meanwhile, look for another rough start for Hellickson with the Cubs’ left-handed bats like Heyward, Rizzo, and Schwarber taking advantage of his massive early season struggles against lefties. There’s a lot of power on the Cubs’ roster and Hellickson’s been allowing more than his share of home runs.
Look for the Cubbies to jump out to a big early lead against Hellickson and show off some fireworks. From there, they should cruise to a rather easy victory.
Take the road team at BookMaker.eu in this one with the Cubs dominating on national television.
MLB Odds: Cubs 8, Nationals 3
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