It’s been a dreadful start to the season for the Baltimore Orioles who are coming off a sweep at the hands of the Tigers. Baltimore is now nine games under-.500 and needs to get back on track quickly. They have another tough matchup on Saturday in the middle game of a three-game series against the Cleveland Indians. The Orioles send their troubled starter Chris Tillman to the hill hoping for better results than he’s shown the last two years while the Tribe has a much more reliable Mike Clevinger toeing the rubber.
First pitch for the game between the Indians and Orioles is scheduled for Saturday, April 21, 2018, at 4:05 p.m. ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The matchup will be shown on FS1.
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Odds Analysis
The Orioles come into the Cleveland series having lost six straight games and eight of their last nine. They were just swept on the road by the Red Sox and Tigers and are in desperate need of a series win.
The O’s were a much better home team than road team last year and in the recent past, but they’ve started off just 2-4 at home in 2018. Of course, that’s still better than the 3-10 road record.
The Indians, on the other hand, are 3-5 on the road, but have won six of their last eight games.
While the overall numbers for the Indians are better than the O’s, neither team is hitting particularly well.
Baltimore did score eight runs in a loss on Thursday, but before that, they had scored three runs or fewer in six of their last eight games.
At the plate, Trey Mancini, Manny Machado and, to a lesser extent, Adam Jones are the only O’s swinging with any consistency. Machado has hit five homers and driven in 14 while Mancini his batting .286 and Jones collected three hits on Thursday.
For the Tribe, Francisco Lindor had the big hit in the Puerto Rico win on Tuesday, but the team only scored one in a 16-inning loss on Wednesday. They’ve scored only 56 runs in 16 games with most of the team batting below the Mendoza Line.
Probable Pitchers
Mike Clevinger gets his fourth start of the season on Saturday against the struggling Orioles. The 27-year old right-hander is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in 16.2 innings of work. He’s walked six and allowed 17 hits giving him a slightly inflated WHIP in the early going, but he’s done well keeping the ball in the park.
As for his walks, Clevinger has brought his walk rate down from 2017. The free passes have been his weakness in his career so far, but the Birds aren’t a patient team, making Baltimore a good matchup for him.
Last year, Clevinger went 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA in 121.2 innings with 137 strikeouts and just 92 hits. He faced the Orioles twice last year, winning both games and allowing just two runs in 11 innings. He did walk seven.
The Orioles will send Chris Tillman to the mound along with a hope and a prayer. The right-hander is the team’s former ace and multiple time Opening Day starter, but he’s struggled the last couple years.
In 2017, Tillman went 1-7 with a 7.84 ERA and 1.892 WHIP in 93 innings and he’s been even worst here in 2018 with a 0-3 record and 11.91 ERA. He’s already allowed 22 hits and 10 walks, but has pitched just 11.1 innings.
After a 16-6 record and 3.77 ERA in 2016, Tillman has completely fallen apart leading to speculation of health concerns. The Orioles and Tillman both insist he’s healthy, but whatever the reason, he hasn’t been an effective pitcher for a couple years now.
To clear his mind and fix mechanical issues, the Orioles pushed his start back after a rainout on Monday. This will be his first start of the year at home which could make a difference though Oriole Park is far from a pitchers’ park. In his last start, he went just two innings, allowing six runs and has allowed at least four runs in all three starts he’s made.
Live Betting
Given Tillman’s recent past, look for the Indians to get into the Orioles’ bullpen early and often.
The bullpen has been a strength of the O’s in the past, but hasn’t delivered great results so far in 2018. Brad Brach blew a save on Opening Day and has been walking the tight rope ever since. Darren O’Day let one get away a couple days ago and the team has already used 11 different pitchers in relief.
Mychal Givens and Pedro Araujo both have high strikeout rates in their limited action, but have allowed plenty of runs. O’Day has allowed a pair of homers as has Givens.
The only Baltimore arms pitching well out of the pen are Richard Bleier—who is a contact guy and, thus, never an overly reliable option—and Miguel Castro who is more of a long man than anything.
In Cleveland, the backend of the pen is throwing much better. Andrew Miller—a former Orioles—and Cody Allen have combined to throw 16.1 scoreless innings with 22 strikeouts. That may be enough if Clevinger pitches well against the O’s, but even if they need an extra arm or two, Nick Goody is throwing well and Tyler Olson has struck out nearly two batters an inning.
MLB Pick
This is a terrible matchup for the Orioles. The only saving grace for Baltimore is that this game will be played at Oriole Park.
Outside a reverse jinx, it’s hard to see a reason to pick the Birds in this game. Tillman has been horrible for a couple years. Clevinger is throwing well. The Indians are starting to play better baseball. The Orioles are struggling badly.
Cleveland holds the advantage against the Orioles in pretty much every facet of the game. Look for the Tribe to get to Tillman early and eat away at an already overused Orioles’ bullpen.
Meanwhile, the O’s bats have been quiet. Clevinger should record a quality start and hand the ball over to one of the game’s best pen.
MLB Odds: Indians 9, Orioles 3
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