The Cleveland Indians and Boston Red Sox kick off an interesting four-game series on Monday that ultimately will have little regular season impact for these two—almost certain—division winners. Despite the meaninglessness for the regular season, Monday’s game could be the first game of a preview series to this year’s ALCS. We have a good pitching matchup in the game, too, with Corey Kluber and Rick Porcello in line to get the start in what could be a statement game, and series.
First pitch for the game between the Indians and Red Sox is scheduled for Monday, August 20, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The matchup will be shown on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
The Red Sox are the best team in baseball. Just look at the record, it’s not even close. They’re scorching hot as a team here in August and just seem to get better and better as the season goes on. Given how good they’ve been, it doesn’t seem possible, yet they find a way to surprise.
While Boston is one of the better pitching teams—both in the rotation and the bullpen—the area they truly stand out is offensively.
The Sox have the best offense in baseball, outscoring the Yankees who rank second by nearly 50-runs. Cleveland ranks third.
Boston’s offense comes from a league leading .270 team average and baseball’s best .339 OBP all while hitting the second most home runs in the sport. In other words, in an era all about the home run and the walk, the Sox are also good at putting the bat on the ball and making contact.
Cleveland is just a couple homers behind Boston and can match the Sox in that department, but the team’s slugging percentage is 20-points lower due to fewer doubles and triples. Again, Boston can do it all.
It certainly helps to have Mookie Betts who has been an 8.2 rWAR player, but even beyond him and J.D. Martinez, this team can rake. That’s the difference in these teams. The Indians have Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez as their counter to Betts and Martinez. They’re not quite up to the same level offensively, but they’re close. The Tribe, however, don’t have an answer for Andrew Benintendi or Xander Bogaerts. In fact, right now, Edwin Encarnacion is on the DL along with most of the outfield, leaving holes in the Cleveland lineup that don’t exist in Boston.
Probable Pitchers
Between the two of them, Kluber and Porcello have won three of the last four AL Cy Young Award trophies and they’ll match up in Monday night’s series opener.
It doesn’t take much analysis to know that Kluber is the superior pitcher. He’s been far more consistent over the years—and this year—than his counterpart.
He comes into action with an AL leading 15 wins and is 15-6 with a 2.68 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in his 25 starts. He’s already thrown a league leading 168 innings as he provides both quality and quantity. He’s a control artist with nasty stuff though he’s not a huge strikeout pitcher, at least not this year. That, of course, isn’t to say he can’t strike people out. He had 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings last year. He’s at 8.6 per nine this year, but couples that with a microscopic 1.2 walks per nine.
One area of concern for the righty—if you can call it that—is the longball. His rate isn’t overly high, but he’s allowed 21 homers already this year. His career high is 22 in seven more starts. He’s almost certain to eclipse that.
In the end, it’s all just nitpicking to find faults. This is one of the true aces of the game. He’s yet to face the Red Sox this year, but over his career, he’s only 2-4 against Boston with a 4.45 ERA; though he is 1-1 in four starts at Fenway with a sub-4 ERA.
On the other side of this matchup, Rick Porcello comes into the game with a much higher ERA at 4.04, but the same number of wins at 15. He’s 15-5 with a 3.74 FIP and 1.147 WHIP. He’s got a comparable strikeout rate to Kluber but is walking nearly one more batter per game and is allowing more hits while giving up almost as many homers in 151.2 innings.
While Kluber’s been better, Porcello’s done enough to yield the same results in terms of wins. He’s just got a better offense and bullpen around him—or at least he did for most of the season.
To break things down a bit further, Porcello is coming off a one-run, seven inning performances against the Phillies and had a one run, complete game against the Yankees earlier this month. Between those two starts, however, he had a clunker against the Blue Jays. Which Porcello will we see on Monday?
Live Betting
With two good pitchers and two strong offenses, this is destined to be a close game, putting a lot on the bullpen to deliver.
Simply looking at bullpen ERAs would suggest Boston could gain a bit of a lead and cruise to a win in this game. The Sox’s pen has a 3.39 ERA while the Indians’ team bullpen ERA is 4.86. That, however, isn’t the full story.
Yes, the Boston bullpen is good. They didn’t add at the deadline and could use an extra set up man, but Craig Kimbrel is a lockdown closer with 36 saves and the rest of the pen has a number of good arms that Alex Cora can use late in the game to set up Kimbrel. Most recently, Ryan Brasier has been throwing well, adding to the likes of Matt Barnes, Hector Velazquez and Joe Kelly.
In Cleveland, the pen was a huge Achilles Heel for quite some time, but more recently, Cody Allen has seen his game improve while Andrew Miller is finally healthy, and Brad Hand has been a huge mid-season addition. Now, the team has three closers to shorten a game to six-innings. With Kluber pitching, that’s enough.
MLB Pick
Kluber hasn’t been great in his career against the Red Sox—at least in the regular season—and the Boston offense is dynamic. The veteran right-hander won’t put up a bad start, but he may be beatable in this game.
It’s hard to bet against Klu-bot, but if there’s a team to do it with, it’s the Red Sox.
Boston is head-and-heels better than any other team in baseball. There’s a reason they’re 15-3 since July 27 and have a 10-game lead over a still very good Yankees team in the AL East.
Offensively, the Sox are the best team in baseball; on the mound they’re just behind Houston in second.
Look for the Indians to put up a good fight and with their improved bullpen, they’ll hang close until the end, but the Red Sox just know how to find ways to win games. The Sox will pull this one out, too, off a good start from Porcello, strong work in the pen and enough offense even against an ace.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 4, Indians 3
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