Two years ago, the Cleveland Indians upset the Boston Red Sox in the ALDS in route to a World Series Game 7 loss to the Cubs. Last year, both the Red Sox and Indians failed to make it past the first round. Here in 2018, we could be looking at a potential ALCS in between these teams, but both clubs will have to get that far first. For now, let’s just look at the four-game series between these two clubs as a possible postseason preview between the only two near-locks to win their respective divisions to this point in the season.
The first game of the four-game series between the Indians and Red Sox is scheduled for Monday, August 20, 2018 at Fenway Park, with first pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET. The first two games of the series will be broadcast on MLB Network.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
The Rays beat the Red Sox on Sunday and Boston goes into this series off a loss. The Indians beat the Orioles on Sunday and are going into their four-game set fresh off a victory.
The win has improved the Indians to 9-2 in their last 11 games and 12-3 in their last 15. That’s an impressive pace, but for the Sox, that’s just a normal couple of weeks. After all, Boston—even after Sunday’s loss—is 13-3 in the month of August and 35-10 since June 24.
Not only are the Red Sox and Indians two of the best—and hottest—teams in baseball right now, they’re two of the best offenses as well.
Boston has outscored every other team by at least 40 runs while the Indians have scored 620 runs in 122 games, the third most in baseball.
In Boston, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez have both been unbelievable and are both very likely to finish in the top-5 in MVP voting. Having two teammates with such ridiculous offense numbers helps Sox fans remember the days of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz in the same order expect the numbers Betts and Martinez are putting up even trump that famous duo.
The Sox have some other good performers, too, like Andrew Benintendi and Xander Bogaerts, but it’s the two big bats that set the stage.
The same is true in Cleveland with Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor. Ramirez is a MVP candidate himself, but Lindor’s numbers aren’t quite as strong. Of course, while Michael Brantley is a good player, the supporting players come up a bit short in Cleveland compared to Boston as well, particularly with Edwin Encarnacion out and the outfield besides Brantley a major question mark.
Probable Pitchers
The Indians have Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco lined up for the first and third games of this series, but the other two starts for Cleveland are rookies in Shane Bieber on Tuesday and Adam Plutko, who takes Trevor Bauer’s spot in the rotation, on Thursday.
While the Indians have a couple of young guns going in the series, the Red Sox have much more experience on tap for this series with Rick Porcello matching up with Kluber on Monday with Nathan Eovaldi, Brian Johnson and David Price pitching the following three games of the series.
Breaking down these pitching matchups, we start with the easiest one on Monday night where even a novice baseball fan can tell you the Indians have the advantage.
Porcello has had a nice season for the Sox and is coming off a two-run, seven innings start against the Phillies. He’s also 10-4 with a 3.35 ERA in 22 career starts against Cleveland.
The Boston right-hander is a good pitcher with good career numbers against the Tribe, but he’s matched up with an ace.
Kluber allowed one run in seven innings in his last start and although he hasn’t faced Boston this year, he’s fared well against them in the past. He’s also a two-time Cy Young Award winner, including taking the award last year.
While Porcello is a former Cy Young winner himself, he’s two years removed from that and has an ERA north of four. Kluber’s 15-6 with a 2.68 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in 168 innings. He’s also walked just 22 batters while striking out 160. He’s not going to help the Sox’s offense by giving them free passes.
Moving on in this series, the second game features Bieber and Eovaldi. The former is a top prospect turned quality starter as he’s 6-2 with a 4.37 ERA In 12 starts. The numbers are good. He’s been a bit too hittable at times but has shown good control overall.
Eovaldi wishes he had that level of success at the same age as Bieber. Despite great velocity, Eovaldi struggled to find consistency in his younger years. He’s now over a year removed from Tommy John surgery and while he’s not a top of the rotation arm, he’s matured as a pitcher.
The righty is 5-4 with a 3.62 ERA in 14 games split between Tampa Bay and Boston. With the Sox, he’s made four starts and three have been very strong. Overall, he has a 2-0 record and 1.99 ERA in 22.2 innings.
As for the Tribe’s final two starters in the series, we have two very different arms. Carrasco is solid No.2 starter on a good team. He’s 15-6 with a 3.33 ERA and has really turned things on of late. He took a back seat to Kluber and Bauer this season but has stepped out of their shadows since the break, going 4-1 with a 1.33 ERA. He’s also coming off a win in his last starting, going seven shutout innings against the Orioles.
Plutko, meanwhile, was the first one to try and nail down the No.5 spot, before Bieber, but faltered a bit. The 26-year old is 4-3 with a 4.62 ERA in 48.2 innings. Those numbers are good, but he’s been homer-prone, which doesn’t look good against a team like Boston, and has a more telling 5.67 FIP.
Going against Carrasco and Plutko are Johnson and Price.
Johnson has proven to be one of the more valuable Boston pitchers this year. He’s been going between starting and relieving but has thrown well with a 4.00 ERA in 78.2 innings. He’s been better as a starter with a 4-1 record and 3.40 ERA.
Price, meanwhile, is the Boston de facto ace with Sale on the DL. He’s throwing as well right now as he ever has with the Red Sox. He’s 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last start and is 13-6 on the year with a 3.69 ERA.
In his career, Price has owned Cleveland to the tune of a 10-2 record and a 2.24 ERA.
Live Betting
These are two evenly matched teams, two of the best teams in the AL. While the record for the Sox is much better, some of that is due to the Indians early struggles in the bullpen. Those issues should now be resolved.
For much of the first half, Cleveland had the worst bullpen in the AL. That’s a massive step backwards from their last two years where their bullpen was one of the team’s biggest strengths.
This year, Cody Allen wasn’t himself and Andrew Miller couldn’t stay healthy. Those are two big guns to lose on top of Bryan Shaw leaving for Colorado. Now, Allen is throwing the ball much better and Miller is finally healthy. The big two guns are back, and the Tribe has added on with Brad Hand. The Indians can now shut the door after six solid from the rotation, something they couldn’t do with much confidence earlier in the year.
For Boston, the bullpen was one area some thought the Sox would address in July. They didn’t and while they could still add on, the unit has been good. A 3.34 team ERA in relief ranks third in the AL behind Houston and New York. Craig Kimbrel has the ninth with Hector Velazquez and Matt Barnes the two best step up men.
MLB Pick
The Indians have picked up their game of late, but the Tribe are dealing with the loss of one of their best starters, diminishing the one area that Cleveland had an edge over the BoSox.
Of course, with Boston not having Chris Sale for this series, things lean back in the Indians’ favor, at least in the rotation.
Overall, the Red Sox still have the better offense and better bullpen—though the return of Andrew Miller and addition of Brad Hand go a long way.
Given the pitching edge in Cleveland and powerhouse offense for the Red Sox, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this four-game set to end in a series split. It’s hard to sweep a four-game series, and when you’re dealing with two sure-fire playoff teams, it’s even hard to expect a series in four games.
That all said, when a team already has 88 wins on August 20, it seems nearly foolish to expect anything but a series win from that team.
The aces in Game 1 and Game 3 of this series should give the Indians a chance at wins while the rookies throwing the other two games puts the Red Sox as likely victors. Given how Boston’s played all year, look for them to take one of the other two games as well.
Count on the Sox two win three of four in this series with the Indians stealing a win in one of the games.
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
