The Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians already split a two-game series in Cleveland last month. Tuesday’s series opener in Chicago, however, will mark the Tribe’s first time back to Wrigley Field since the Cubs beat the Indians in Game 5 of the 2016 World Series, forcing the series back to Cleveland where the Cubbies eventually broke their 108-year championship drought. Trevor Bauer, who pitched in that World Series will toe the rubber for the Indians in this game opposite Tyler Chatwood, a newcomer to the Cubs.
First pitch for the game between the Indians and Cubs is scheduled for Tuesday, May 22, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
It’s been a choppy start to the season for the Indians who continue to float around .500. Fortunately, for the Tribe, that’s enough to lead a very weak AL Central.
The same is not the case in the NL Central, however. The Cubs boast a better record than the Indians, but must contend with the Brewers, Pirates and Cardinals—all of whom are outplaying the Indians.
While the Cubs have yet to get the consistent offense and starting pitching they expected given their deep roster—and deep pockets—Chicago’s gotten great work out of the bullpen, allowing the Cubbies to win the games they should win.
Brandon Morrow was questioned as the named closer coming into the year, but he’s done nothing but deliver. He’s allowed two runs and nine hits in 15 innings, notching 10 saves. He’s also delivered a 1.00 WHIP though with fewer strikeouts than typical in the ninth, Morrow has delivered his results with an unsustainably low BABIP. Nevertheless, he was nails in the postseason last year and is getting the job done.
Getting to him, the Cubs have Steve Cishek, Pedro Strop and Brian Duensing dealing. The trio of setup men have combined to allow just seven runs in 55.2 innings. It’s hard to beat that.
The Cubs have the third best bullpen ERA in baseball and, in fact, the Indians cannot beat that. Not even close.
Cleveland was the best bullpen in the AL last year—at least before the trade deadline. Here in 2018, it’s been a different story.
The Tribe ranks dead last in bullpen ERA. They missed Andrew Miller when he was on the DL and he hasn’t been the same since coming off the DL. Miller and Cody Allen have been beatable lately which provides a true challenge for Terry Francona piecing together the final few innings.
The Indians will still go to Miller and Allen in close games. They need them to get back on track and they’re still the best options even when not on the top of their game. This isn’t nearly as deep of pen as the Indians have had in years past. They’re desperately searching for options and, to this point, nobody has delivered in a reliable way.
Probable Pitchers
Given the bullpen woes for the Indians, there will be a lot of pressure on Trevor Bauer to deliver length on Tuesday.
Bauer is coming of his best start of the season last time out. He held the Tigers to eight scoreless inning, allowing just four hits while striking out 10 and walking nobody. In three May starts, Bauer has notched a 2.89 ERA and well over a strikeout per innings.
Overall, Bauer is 3-3 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.119 WHIP in nine starts. He’s thrown 59 innings and has a 2.81 FIP. He’s delivering, but he’s doing it by pitching well, not by getting lucky.
The 27-year old has been a high-potential, low-results starter for years, but has come into his own the last few years. He’s leading the Indians in strikeout rate with 10.2 per nine and has given up just three home runs all year. He’s getting strikeouts like a power pitcher without giving up the long balls that tend to go with it.
Bauer will keep the Indians close, but he’ll have to overcome his 2016 postseason demons. Last time he faced the Cubs, he went 6.2 innings, allowing just one run in the only win of the brief two game series in Cleveland. Before that, however, Bauer allowed five runs and 12 hits in just 8.1 innings spread over three games in the 2016 World Series.
While Bauer dominated the Cubs back in April, his counterpart—Tyler Chatwood—did the same. He allowed one run in six innings and beat the Tribe in the one game won by the Cubbies back in April.
Chatwood also pitched well against the braves in his last start. Chicago has had some issue in the rotation, but Chatwood, to this point, has delivered at—or above—expectations. He’s not a top of the rotation arm and doesn’t have the same upside as Bauer, but he’s looking like a different pitcher outside of Coors. He’s 3-3 with a 3.14 ERA in eight starts. He is allowing way too many base runners, however.
Walks have plagued Chatwood his whole career. So far in 2018, he’s pitched around them, but he’s already walked a league leading 34 batters in 43 innings. That’s more than seven per nine. That is not sustainable even with an incredible low home run rate and a very low BABIP.
For now, however, Chatwood is getting results despite playing with fire.
Live Betting
Both the Indians and Cubs got off to slow starts for the second straight season, the Indians’ start being slower than the Cubs.
Offense was part of the problem for both teams in April, but neither has had issues scoring runs so far in May. The Indians lead the AL in runs scored with 111 in May. The Cubs lead the NL with 98. They rank first and second in baseball in runs scored and the only two to have OPS numbers over .800 in the month.
The Indians thump comes from the left side of the infield. Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor are both hitting over .300, both have at least a dozen homers and both have at least 27 RBIs. Ramirez has a .302/.392/.615 slash line while Lindor’s sits at .304/.377/.576.
Beyond those two, Michael Brantley is back in pre-injury form, finally. He’s hitting .333 and while he hasn’t shown quite as much power, he’s got a strong OBP and plenty of doubles. Meanwhile, Yan Gomes, Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso are all swinging hotter bats lately.
For the Cubs, Javy Baez has been the star; well, besides Kris Bryant. Anthony Rizzo is starting to hit better, but he’s been an enigma early. Instead, Baez has been the No.2 behind Bryant with 10 homers and 37 RBIs. He’s leading the team in both categories. With just six walks, however, his OBP is just .289. When he makes contact, he does a ton of damage, but he can be pitched to if you execute.
The same goes for Kyle Schwarber who has a .849 OPS which is second to Bryant. He’s got a better OBP than Baez at .378 due to a better batting eye, but his .240 average and 34 strikeouts illustrate the wholes he has in his swinging.
These are two good offenses that are just now coming into their own.
MLB Pick
Neither team has broken out, yet, though both are still in a good spot to secure another postseason bid by the season’s end.
Bauer is pitching very well right now and coming off an excellent start, but Chatwood has been throwing well, too. Both have pitched well against the opposing team this season.
To start the game, these two teams are balanced on the mound with Bauer getting a slight edge due to Chatwood’s high walk rate. That edge, however, is negated by the far superior Cubs bullpen. The Indians still have a fearsome tandem, but with them still finding their way right now. Still, if Bauer goes seven and Cleveland has Miller and Allen at the end, it’s hard to bet against them.
Look for the Cubs and Indians play a tight one on Tuesday. Both of these offenses have kicked into gear this month and both have faith in their starters. Chatwood’s issues with command, however, are a huge red flag. He’s been playing with fire and will eventually get burned. With Bauer and the best offense in baseball in May, look for the Indians to steal a win on the road against the Cubs on Tuesday.
MLB Odds: Cubs 5, Indians 3
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
