For their Sunday Night Game of the Week, ESPN is featuring a pair of division leaders in what is a potential postseason matchup with the Cleveland Indians journey deep in the heart of Texas to take on the Houston Astros. Of course, that does over simplify things a bit with the Indians sitting at .500 and struggling offensively—and in the bullpen. They’ve stayed afloat with their starting pitching. With that, Carlos Carrasco will have the difficult assignment of going toe-to-toe with Lance McCullers Jr.
First pitch for the game between the Indians and Astros is scheduled for Sunday, May 20, 2018, at 8:08 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
Each time it looks like the Indians might finally go on a run, they falter. The team did this early on last season two prior to a historic winning streak. They’re still waiting for a similar boost of momentum. For now, this is just a .500 team with only three dependable offensive pieces.
The offense, however, does seem to have picked up the pace lately. The team beat Detroit 6-0 on Wednesday to avoid a sweep. It was the Tribe’s sixth time scoring six or more in their last seven games.
Cleveland desperately needs someone other than Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor or Michael Brantley to heat up. The trio have a 1.004, .989 and .945 OPS respectively. Ramirez and Lindor have combined for 25 bombs and the trio have driven in 85 of the Indians’ 200 total team RBIs.
Over the last week, the team’s elite trio have remained scorching hot while a couple others have started swinging better. Yan Gomes is 5-for-16 this week and Yonder Alonso has started swinging better, too. Meanwhile, in May, Edwin Encarnacion is hitting .304.
Much like the Indians, the Astros’ bats haven’t been as good this season, but it’s not quite as bad in Houston.
The Astros are still winning—largely on the shoulders of a historically good rotation—but the offense is doing more than enough, ranking sixth in baseball in runs scored. The team was first last year.
Jose Altuve is hitting .309, but is not hitting for power. In fact, compared to the rest of the sport, the team isn’t hitting for power. George Springer leads the squad with eight homers while Carlos Correa has hit seven.
Houston hasn’t hit as many dingers as the Indians, but they’ve got a better team average and OBP. They’ve also got a few more dependable hitters who can do damage throughout the order.
The weakest links in the order have been Evan Gattis and Marwin Gonzalez. Gonzalez continues to slump, but Gattis has been doing a bit better this month with a team high three homers and a solid .810 OPS.
Probable Pitchers
ESPN will get a fun pitching matchup on its airwaves on Sunday with Carlos Carrasco and Lance McCullers Jr. taking the mound.
The Indians rotation generally focuses on Corey Kluber while Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole have been the primary headlines in Houston. That leaves Carrasco and McCullers under the radar, but both have electric stuff.
Carrasco is coming off a 14-strikeout game and is a strikeout machine. He struck out 226 in 200 innings last year. He’s cut down on the strikeouts a bit in 2018, in favor of quicker outs and going deeper in the game. He’s still sat down 57 in 59 innings.
Already with two complete games under his belt, Carrasco has minimized the need for a bullpen in his starts which is valuable given how poorly the pen has performed to this point.
Overall, in nine starts, he’s 5-2 with a 3.66 ERA, 3.47 FIP and 1.051 WHIP. He’s limiting base runners, generally keeping the ball in the park and putting up a very solid 4.38 strikeout to walk ratio. Those are very good numbers, but eerily like those of McCullers.
The Houston hurler is also 5-2. He has a 3.63 ERA in nine starts though he has pitched seven fewer innings. McCullers doesn’t go as deep into the game, but the Astros bullpen has been better this year than Cleveland’s. He hasn’t had to go as deep.
Carrasco has done a bit of a better job limiting base runners than McCullers who has a higher FIP, higher WHIP and lower K:BB ratio. He plays with fire a bit more, but to this point has gotten out of trouble, ending up with similar results to the Cleveland hurler.
Live Betting
We have two evenly stacked—albeit different—offenses and two starting pitchers who have nearly identical ERAs. The difference for this game lies in the pen.
The Indians have ridden their bullpen hard the last few years, but it has been a difficult ride for the Tribe to this point in 2018. The Cleveland bullpen ranks dead last in baseball with a 5.68 ERA. The Astros, by comparison, rank No.4 at 2.94.
Andrew Miller hasn’t been right since coming off the DL. He’s rusty and has allowed runs every outing. Cody Allen has been slumping, too. Through the first month of the season, these two had yet to give up a run. Now, they’re having trouble getting through an outing without having someone cross the plate.
When Miller and Allen aren’t reliable, that puts Terry Francona in a truly bad position. The rest of the pen is depleted from the good ole days. The team is desperately trying everyone they can including acquiring Oliver Drake, turning to Evan Marshall and Neil Ramirez.
In Houston, close Ken Giles has had a couple shaky outings, but has notched a save in his last three outings, allowing two hits and no walks in three innings.
While Giles fights back to win the confidence of A.J. Hinch, the Houston manager has other options he already has confidence in, including Brad Peacock and Collin McHugh who have each been fantastic in the bullpen after being squeezed out of the rotation.
MLB Pick
The Indians have one of their best arms toeing the rubber on Sunday while McCullers likely qualifies as a back-of-the-rotation arm in Houston given the depth they have. Still, the two come out as a near wash. Carrasco may be a bit better at limiting runners, but McCullers has the edge of pitching at home.
Look for McCullers to go six solid innings before turning the ball over to a deep bullpen who secure the final nine outs and give the Astros the victory. This should be a close game with two similarly talented starters and two solid offenses. The bullpens make the difference in this game.
Look for Francona to try to squeeze an extra couple outs from Carrasco while Miller and Allen are struggling. That results in the difference in the game.
MLB Odds: Astros 5, Indians 3
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