A pair of 2017 playoff teams meet for a three-game series over the weekend when the Houston Astros host the Cleveland Indians. The series is capped off with a primetime showdown on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. Overall, the series could be a nice playoff preview. Of course, for that to happen, the Indians will have to improve their play. They’ll certainly get tested in this series with the Astros boasting the game’s best rotation. But, if any AL team can challenge that title, it’s the Indians.
First pitch for the game between the (Two teams) is scheduled for Friday, May 18, 2018 through Sunday, May 20, 2018. Friday and Sunday nights’ games will be at 8 p.m. ET with Saturday’s game at 4 p.m. ET, all three at Minute Maid Park. Of the three-game series, two games will be broadcast nationally with Saturday’s game on MLB Network and Sunday’s game on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.
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Odds Analysis
Cleveland’s two years removed from the AL pennant and is still considered one of the better teams in the American League, but they haven’t delivered on that pedigree, yet.
A season ago they got off to a slow start, too, but had a historic midseason run to get them over 100 wins. It seems unlikely they have that in them again as the bullpen and offense both took a bit of a hit in the offseason. Still, this team is better than its played to this point, particularly at the plate.
The Indians are actually fifth in the league in runs scored despite a .248 team average, and veteran hitters like Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso and Jason Kipnis’s hovering around—or in Kipnis’ case, below—the Mendoza Line.
Encarnacion and Alonso have hit a few homers while Yan Gomes has at least been serviceable at dish, but overall, the Indians’ offense production boils down to Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Michael Brantley.
Brantley’s got the best average, hitting .328, but has only eight walks and five homers. As such, his .912 OPS is the lowest of the three. Ramirez has a .297/.387/.627 slash line with a AL leading 13 homers while Lindor’s 12 homers are right behind and his .316/.394/.608 slash line rather comparable.
The Indians’ bats have been coming around a bit of late, but the Astros have still outscored the Tribe on the season.
Houston’s offense is a bit more spread. They don’t have the prolific seasons Cleveland is getting from Lindor and Ramirez, but Jose Altuve is hitting .311 and getting on base, Carlos Correa is producing at a clip 46-percent better than league average according to OPS+, and George Springer is producing a very respectable .288/.353/.488 slash line.
Those three don’t live up to the trio of Brantley, Lindor and Ramirez, but they have the better career numbers compared to the Indians’ trio. They also have the better support.
Houston’s getting a nice campaign behind the plate form Brian McCann who’s .273/.381/.409 slash trumps Gomes. Meanwhile Max Stassi has been even better when he’s behind the dish and Josh Reddick, Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel all represent statistical upgrades to their counterparts in Cleveland.
Probable Pitchers
This series features two excellent rotations matching up head-to-head though the Astros won’t be showcasing either Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole in this series. Even so, they have three excellent starters lined up to face three of Cleveland’s best.
In the series opener, the Indians will start Mike Clevinger while the Astros go with Charlie Morton. Both of these arms were fringe starters before last year, but they’re each dependable, established starters now.
Clevinger comes into play fresh off a 7.2 inning, two-run start against Kansas City. In the game, he lowered his ERA to 2.70, improving to 3-0 in his eight starts. He’s got a 1.069 WHIP and 2.77 FIP, showing his excellent start is built on substance rather than luck.
The 27-year old right-hander is also a strong road starter, pitching to a 3.22 career ERA away from Progressive Field.
On the other side, Morton is a bit more of a veteran, but he was a fringe starter much of his career. When he got to Houston, he changed his delivery, gained more spin and went 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA last year. There were questions whether he could replicate that, but so far, he’s been even better. He’s 5-0 with a 2.03 ERA, 0.966 WHIP and has 62 strikeouts in 48.2 innings.
In Game 1, the pitching advantage leans towards Houston given how well Morton has pitched, but Game 2 favors the Indians with Corey Kluber set to toe the rubber for the Indians and Dallas Keuchel on rotation for the Astros.
Kluber is one of the top few pitchers in baseball by any metric. He’s 6-2 with a 2.34 ERA and 0.842 WHIp in 65.1 innings. He gives quality and length in his starts. He’s got great stuff and impeccable control. He’s walked just 10 batters.
He’s coming off an 18-win, 2.25 ERA season and his second Cy Young Award. He’s also gone 5-3 in eight games against Houston.
While Kluber is generally considered a better pitcher, he won’t be the only former Cy Young Award winner on the hill on Saturday. Keuchel won the award in 2015 and while he never quite got back to that same level, he did pitch to a 2.90 ERA last year.
The 30-year old southpaw is just 3-5 in 2018, showing he’s vulnerable, but with a 3.10 ERA, he’s done his part to help his team win. He’s coming off a seven-inning shutout in his last game at Minute Maid Park. He’s generally lights out at home, pitching to a .617 winning percentage and 2.97 ERA for his career at home.
This series wraps up on Sunday with a battle between two underrated starters in Carlos Carrasco and Lance McCullers Jr.
Carrasco is often overshadowed by Kluber and for good reason, but Carrasco is a constant starter who would be an ace on most teams. He’s posted a 3.63 ERA or better in each of his last four full seasons. He’s 5-2 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.051 WHIP so far in nine starts here in 2018. He’s already thrown 59 innings and nabbed two complete games.
He struck out 14 batters in his last start and has 22 strikeouts in two career starts against Houston, winning both of those games while delivering 15.1 scoreless innings.
Those numbers are hard to bet against, but McCullers’ 2018 numbers look very similar. His WHIP is higher at 1.231, but he’s posted a 3.63 ERA and 5-2 record in nine starts, though he has thrown seven fewer innings.
Carrasco is likely to go deeper, but given the Houston bullpen, that’s not likely to matter too much. After all, save an eight run outing against the Twins in April, McCullers would have a 2.42 ERA.
Live Betting
Last year, the Yankees were the only team that could rival Cleveland’s bullpen. Cody Allen and Andrew Miller late in the game were as invincible as you could get while Bryan Shaw helped bridge the gap.
Allen and Miller are still in the pen, Miller being back from a DL stint, but Shaw is gone and that hurts.
One of the biggest early surprises to the season is the Cleveland bullpen ERA that sits at 5.73, the worst in the sport.
Neither Allen or Miller—when healthy—have been invincible. They’ve allowed 10 combined runs in 27.2 innings of work. Allen has allowed all six of his runs over his last six outings. Miller, on the other hand, has made three appearances since coming off the DL. When he went on the DL, he hadn’t allowed a run in 10 innings. Since, he’s allowed four runs on three hits and five walks in 1.2 innings.
Over the long run, Allen and Miller are the least of the Indians’ bullpen concerns, but for this coming series, Terry Francona’s most dependable late-game arms are anything but dependable.
Outside the big two, the rest of the pen all have bloated ERAs. The team’s been cycling through options to see if they can find one that’s pitching well. Dan Otero, Tyler Olson and Zach McAllister all have ERAs over six while Neil Ramirez and Oliver Drake are the latest attempts to find a stable answer.
When on, Cleveland has a much better ninth inning option, but as for the entire pen, that’s advantage Houston.
Ken Giles is the closer—though Brad Peacock and Chris Devenski both serve as viable alternatives. Giles has struggled with confidence since blowing up in the postseason. While he can be shaky, the rest of the pen has been strong. Peacock has embraced the role even after doing enough in the rotation last year to be a starter on most teams. He’s thrown 17.2 innings and has allowed four runs though he has been a hit homer prone. Devenski has a 1.13 ERA in 16 frames.
From there, Will Harris, Hector Rondon and Collin McHugh are others performing well here in the early going. McHugh, like Peacock, is good enough to start on most teams, but has allowed just a single run on 11 hits while striking out 22 in 16.2 innings. His stuff is really playing up in the pen.
MLB Pick
The Indians get a break in this matchup, missing both Verlander and Cole, the AL ERA leaders—at least heading into Wednesday night.
Still, Cleveland’s offense has been cold and the Tribe haven’t been able to get any momentum going. The pitching should keep this a lower scoring series on both sides, keeping the Indians in all three games, but look for Houston to come out on top in the series at home.
Cleveland could steal a game. Kluber’s on the mound Saturday and that’s the most likely one even if Keuchel is no walk in the park to face.
Ultimately, the Astros win this series not on the pitching—which the Indians can match—but with their bats. The Astros haven’t been hitting on all cylinders, but with a few more hitters on a roll than the three in Cleveland, Houston has a distinct advantage, particularly at home.
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