In an early glimpse into a potential American League Central divisional showdown, the Minnesota Twins will host the Cleveland Indians in the first of 19 match ups on Tuesday night. The Twins figure to be the primary competition for the Tribe as they look for another AL Central title and deep postseason run. Minnesota made several offseason acquisitions to help close the gap including the addition of pitchers such as Jake Odorizzi who gets the ball on Tuesday opposite Indians’ ace Corey Kluber.
First pitch for the game between the Indians and Twins is scheduled for Tuesday, August 17, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Target Field. The matchup will be shown on FS1.
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Odds Analysis
The Indians are the heavy favorites in the AL Central, but in the early going, the Twins have kept the race close.
Some of the reason for that is a depressed Indians offense. Michael Brantley is the only Indian hitting for much of an average. While he’s 6-for-21, he’s only gotten one extra base hit, leaving him with an OPS+ of 90. The fact that’s one of the better marks on this team is telling.
The Tribe desperately needs to get the ball rolling. Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Ramirez have each hit three homers, but both are hitting well below the Mendoza Line.
As a team, the Indians ranked No. 22 in total runs scored, plating 49 which is actually quite impressive considering a team average of .200 and OPS of .607.
The Twins have scored an additional run compared to the Indians, but had done so in fewer games. Minnesota was one of the better offenses in 2017. They haven’t quite gotten going in 2018 as Byron Buxton, Jason Castro, Logan Morrison and Eddie Rosario are all off to slow starts.
Keeping the team afloat, however, are Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier. Mauer is batting .412 with a .545 OBP and Dozier has four homers and a .985 OPS through his first 11 games. Eduardo Escobar is also hitting well;, batting .294 as the impromptu starting shortstop.
Probable Pitchers
Corey Kluber looks like Kluber so far this season. He had a bad postseason in 2017, but it looks like he’s back to his old, elite self after the offseason.
In his first three games of 2018, he’s gone 1-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.652 WHIP in 23 innings. He’s struck out 27 batters to this point compared to just four walks. That ratio is great, but he has allowed a couple homers already which is a bit concerning. Nevertheless, he’s keeping batters off the bases.
Kluber is coming off his best season yet, going 18-4 with a 2.25 ERA in route to his second Cy Young Award.
In his career against the Twins, he’s made 19 starts and is 8-5 with a 3.31 ERA. As for the current Twins, most of Minnesota’s lineup hasn’t been any good against Kluber. One exception, however, is Joe Mauer who is 16-for-49 with a pair of homers, five doubles and a triple. On the down side, he has struck out 13 times against him.
To counter Kluber, the Twins will turn to their new ace—or at least the Opening Day starter in Jake Odorizzi.
Odorizzi had a rough 2017 campaign as his ERA, WHIP and FIP jumped for the third straight season. His 10-8 record and 4.14 ERA weren’t too bad, but his 5.43 FIP paints a different story.
So far in 2018, Odorizzi is 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA, allowing four runs in 16.1 innings. The results in three starts have been good, but his 10 walks over that span raises concerns.
Playing his career in Tampa Bay, he hasn’t had many starts against the Indians, but has been okay when he has faced them, going 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA in four starts.
Live Betting
One of the key differences between the first-place Indians and second-place Twins in 2017 was the bullpen.
Cleveland ranked first in the sport in bullpen ERA at 2.89. Minnesota ranked in the bottom third of the league at 4.40. The 2018 bullpens have less of a gap.
The Tribe lost Bryan Shaw in the offseason which is a major loss, but they still have Cody Allen and Andrew Miller in the backend. To this point, they’ve combined for 12 scoreless innings, allowing seven total hits and striking out 16.
Nick Goody was a breakout arm in last year’s pen and is off to another good start for Cleveland in 2018. The back end for the Tribe is still lights out, but the middle innings are a question. Fortunately, with Kluber on the mound, he figures to go at least six.
In Minnesota, the team went to the postseason last year with a dismantled bullpen in the second half after trading away Brandon Kintzler.
Additions of Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zach Duke were made to reinforce the pen. Rodney has been a bit of a tight rope walk early and will be going forward, but has generally gotten the job done. Reed has been good while Duke has struggled.
The Indians, clearly, still have the edge on the mound in the late innings, but the Twins aren’t as much a band of no-names as they were a season ago.
MLB Pick
Jake Odorizzi has pitched well this year, but there’s no doubt which team has the advantage on the mound in this series.
Corey Kluber is, arguably, the best pitcher in the game; or at least in the AL. The Tribe also have the edge in the bullpen given the guys in the back end.
The main question is whether the offense can get things rolling. Nobody in Cleveland is really hitting well, yet, but this will be a low scoring game and the Indians have a good lineup and only a couple need to produce on Tuesday to get the win.
MLB Odds: Indians 4, Twins 3
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