In the second game of the two-game showcase series in San Juan, Puerto Rico, the Minnesota Twins will serve as the home team for the second straight night, ‘hosting’ the Cleveland Indians. Losing two home games as part of the Commissioner’s initiative to spread the game internationally is a concession for the Twinkies, but a win would put the concern behind them. After a battle of Opening Day starters on Tuesday, Wednesday’s pitching matchup may be even better with Carlos Carrasco and Jose Berrios going toe-to-toe as the battle for the AL Central continues.
First pitch for the game between the Indians and Twins is scheduled for Wednesday, April 18, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Hiram Bithorn Stadium in San Juan, Puerto Rico. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Twins and Indians have both had good, but not great starts to the season. Both are just a bit over-.500, not really setting themselves apart, but also not digging themselves into a hole.
The Indians’ bats have been cold, but the pitching has kept the team afloat, including the bullpen.
Cleveland’s pen isn’t as deep as it has been the last couple years, but Cody Allen, Andrew Miller and Nick Goody still form a strong trio. The combo of Allen and Miller have yet to allow a run and have combined to give up just seven hits and four walks in 12 innings of work.
The styles of Miller and Allen at the end of the game complement each other and give Terry Francona options to matchup as both can close, allowing the southpaw to come in at the right time against the opposing lefties.
For Minnesota, Fernando Rodney isn’t a lights-out closer like he was in the past. The 41-year old still shoots his share of imaginary arrows into the air, but he makes things interesting. He got the job done in Arizona last year, but his 4.23 ERA wasn’t overly impressive. Ryan Pressly and Addison Reed are solid set up options, but not quite Andrew Miller.
Probable Pitchers
On a staff with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco is the No.2 starter, but he’s good enough to be the ace on most other teams.
The 31-year old has posted an ERA of 3.63 or better in all three seasons as a starter and is an elite strikeout arm after striking out 10.2 per nine innings in 2017 when he threw 200 frames.
Carrasco ended 2017 with a 18-6 record, 3.29 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in his 32 starts, his best seasons to date. He seems to be getting even better and in 2017 may have even pitched better than those elite numbers indicate based on his 3.10 FIP.
In three 2018 starts, Carrasco is 3-0 with a 3.48 ERA in 20.2 innings of work. He’s done a good job limiting walks and forcing the opponent to put the ball in play, but his early strikeout numbers are down and he has allowed three homers, a bit higher that he’d like.
Over his nine-season career, Carrasco has faced the Twins 17 teams, starting 14 games. He’s 5-6 with a 3.83 ERA. He has an inflated 1.409 WHIP in those 17 games.
To counter Carrasco, the Twins will turn to their own underrated ace in Jose Berrios.
After a rough start to his career in a 2016 audition, he pitched wonderfully in his first full year in 2017. In 2016, Minnesota was 3-7 with an 8.02 ERA. Last year, he went 14-8 with a 3.89 ERA. He had one start against the Indians, allowing one run on two hits in 7.2 innings. He struck out 11 Tribe hitters.
His start to 2018 has been amazing. He’s 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA. He’s thrown 20.2 innings, including throwing a complete game shutout. He’s struck out 24 batters, walking only one. He also has allowed just 12 hits and one homer.
Carrasco has been impressive, but Berrios has really thrown the ball well.
Live Betting
The Indians bullpen is better and their starter is more experienced, if not better, but the Tribe’s bats have gotten off to a slow start.
Tyler Naquin is the only Indians’ bat with a triple-digit OPS+ though the team’s first 14 games. Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Edwin Encarnacion are the five Indians to start all 14 games and only Lindor is batting above the Mendoza Line. His .241 average and .681 OPS look good compared to the rest of the team, but are both well below expectations.
Despite the start, the Indians are still a good offensive team based on names, but they’ve yet to show in.
The Twins haven’t lit up the scoreboard. Byron Buxton is off to another slow start. Logan Morrison is batting .088 and Miquel Sano has already struck out 22 times in 10 games.
Those struggles, however, are mitigated, but the .412 average and .545 OBP for Joe Mauer and the strong power shown by both Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano.
Max Kepler is also hitting well. In an outfield with Buxton and Eddie Rosario, Kepler is often an afterthought, but he’s got a .381 OBP and three homers in 11 games. Not too shabby for the other guy in the outfield.
MLB Pick
Berrios has taken a major step forward so far this season and Carrasco is an underrated ace. This is an excellent pitching matchup. Look for a low scoring, tight game.
The bullpen advantage goes to the Tribe, tough Minnesota’s backend can put up zeros, too.
Offensively, the Twins have hit better this year than the Indians albeit in a small sample size. Look for Minnesota to manufacture one more run and eek out the victory.
MLB Odds: Twins 3, Indians 2
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