In the third game of a four-game weekend series against divisional foes, the Minnesota Twins will host the Cleveland Indians with hopes of closing the gap between them in the standings. Despite a disappointing start to the season, the Twins are still technically in the race, but Cleveland is starting to pull away. To stay relevant, they’ll need their Saturday starter—Lance Lynn—to continue pitching the way he has his last two starts. Even if he does, however, Minnesota still will have a difficult matchup on Saturday with Trevor Bauer toeing the rubber for the Tribe.
First pitch for the game between the Indians and Twins is scheduled for Saturday, June 2, 2018, at 4:10 p.m. ET at Target Field. The matchup will be shown on Fox Sports 1.
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Odds Analysis
Heading into the series against the Twins, the Indians appear to finally be getting into a grove after taking the last two in a series against the Astros and carrying that into a series sweep against the White Sox.
With five straight wins, the Indians came into the series four games over .500, they most they’ve been all season.
On the other side, the Twins have been scuffling. They’re now behind the Tigers in the standings though most still see Minnesota as the biggest threat to the Indians.
Despite that perception, the Twins are falling fast and could be playing themselves out of any chance at October baseball. They’re 5-10 in their last 15 games and have lost six of their last seven games to drop to seven games under .500.
Minnesota is struggling in all facets of the game, but the offense has been the biggest issue.
The Twins have scored the third fewest runs in the AL and have a team average of .237 with just 50 homers.
Byron Buxton was hitting .156 before going back on the DL, Joe Mauer is hurt, Miguel Sano is hitting .208 and even Brian Dozier has been below average offensively with a 97 OPS+.
Max Kepler and Eduardo Escobar have both exceeded expectations, but they’re alone. Eddie Rosario is the big bat that’s performed, but Logan Morrison, Sano, Dozier and the rest have all not produced like they did last year.
Meanwhile, on the other side, the Indians have been the best offense outside of New York, Boston and Houston. They’ve been the best overall over the last month.
The lineup is now more than just Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Michael Brantley, all of whom are having All-Star worthy first halves. Yonder Alonso and Edwin Encarnacion have been hot. Erik Gonzalez has been great since getting a chance due to injuries. And, even Jason Kipnis has looked, well, less terrible.
The Tribe has a .348 OBP and .840 OPS over the last month and no matter how you slice it, that’s good.
Probable Pitchers
Lance Lynn is just starting to get his act together and now he must face one of the league’s hottest offenses. It’s not the most favorable matchup for the former Cardinal.
There’s no question Lynn’s Twins career isn’t off to a great start. The fact he’s 3-4 is surprising given his -0.4 WAR and 5.94 ERA. He’s walked a staggering 33 batters in 50 innings. He’s never been one to have a great WHIP or great FIP, but traditionally he’s pitched around the base runners. This year, those base runners have been too plentiful to pitch around. He’s got a 1.820 WHIP. You can’t win allowing nearly two runners per inning.
He’s been better his last two starts, hurling back-to-back quality starts and holding the Royals to two runs in six frames after 6.2 scoreless against the Tigers the game before. He’s still walking too many, but his four walks in those 12.2 innings are much closer to his career levels. He’s showing better command, but his success was coming against lackluster lineups that did help him out of trouble.
While the Twins will hope and pray the small two game sample is sustainable, the Indians have a much large collection of data to hang their hats on.
Trevor Bauer will make his 12th start of the season on Saturday boasting a 4-3 record and 2.61 ERA. He’s pitched 72.1 innings in 11 starts with a 1.134 WHIP and 2.66 FIP. He’s not allowing home runs, giving up four all year.
Bauer’s been steadily improving the last few years and looked to turn a corner in the middle of 2017. He’s showing sustainability here in 2018.
The 27-year old still has youth on his side, giving further credence to his improvements. He looked good in 7.2 innings against the Astros, striking out 13. The Twins are an easier target.
Still, he’s just 4-6 with a 4.85 ERA in his career against Minnesota.
Live Betting
The Indians have the momentum. They have the better offense. And, they have the edge in terms of starting pitching, even with Lynn throwing better.
That said, the Twins do make up some of the ground in the bullpen. Minnesota’s pen isn’t great. They’ve got a 4.44 cumulative ERA, but that’s much better than league worst 6.02 ERA of the Indians.
Cleveland’s bullpen was a strength of the team the last few years, but the losses the last couple years have taken their toll. Meanwhile, Cody Allen showed some struggles here and there and Andrew Miller’s been dealing with injuries costing his effectiveness when in games and now having put him on the DL for the second time this year.
Allen remains the only reliable arm in Cleveland’s pen as they continually try different options. Neil Ramirez, Jeff Beliveau and Evan Marshall are the latest attempts to catch lightning in a bottle and all are failing.
The Twins have a shot in this game if they can get Bauer out early, but given how poorly the pen is pitching, Terry Francona will give Bauer a long leash, hoping to minimize the gap between him and Allen. With the Twins not hitting well, Francona may be able to get to Allen with limited exposure to the other arms in bullpen.
And, of course, the Twins aren’t a lockdown pen. They’ve got a 41-year old Fernando Rodney walking the tight-rope at the end, but Addison Reed and Ryan Pressly are at least a couple dependable arms. If this game comes down to the pen, the Twins should win, but given Lynn’s issues this year, the Twins’ anemic offense and the Indians’ recent roll, there should be enough of a buffer going to the pen to keep Cleveland on top.
MLB Pick
Minnesota needs to start playing better baseball, but Saturday is not a great matchup for the Twinkies.
While Lynn is starting to finally throw the ball better, he’s still the weakest link in this rotation right now and still needs to show he can silence some of the better hitting teams before he can be relied on for the consistent outings he was known for in St. Louis.
Look for the Indians to get to Lynn for a few runs at least and add on against the Twins’ bullpen. The Tribe are starting to really swing the bats well.
Meanwhile, the Twins haven’t shown the ability to manufacture runs on offense. They may be able to scratch a run or two across against Bauer, but he’s been a very good pitcher all year. They’ll add a couple more against the disastrous Indians’ bullpen, but Cleveland should have enough of a buffer to get the win.
MLB Odds: Indians 7, Twins 4
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