Both the Cleveland Indians and Oakland Athletics eclipsed 90 wins last season in route to a playoff berth. While the Indians would technically be in line for a Wild Card spot if the season ended today, there are still major areas of concern for both teams as they meet in Oakland six weeks into the regular season. It’s the pivotal middle game of the three game set between the two clubs on Saturday afternoon.
First pitch for the game between the Indians and Athletics is scheduled for Saturday, May 11, 2019, at 4:05 p.m. ET at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. The matchup will be shown on FS1.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
Head to head last season, the A’s won the season series, taking four of six games, but Cleveland actually outscored Oakland with a couple big wins, scoring 31 to Oakland’s 29.
The Indians’ offense, however, was much better in 2018 than this season where Cleveland has an AL worst .630 OPS and .212 average through its first 34 games played.
Francisco Lindor started the season on the IL which hurt the offense, but the woes are more than just one player.
Lindor is back and hitting okay with a .780 OPS, but the team’s offense is still a mess. Jose Ramirez has played 34 games and has only two home runs and a .197 average. He’s been miserable. In fact, only Lindor—in just 15 games—and Carlos Santana have an OPS+ of at least 80. They are both sitting above 100 as the team’s only above average bats so far.
The Tribe has desperately been trying to find someone to provide a spark. They signed Carlos Gonzalez late in spring and he’s been bad since coming up with a .206 average.
Oakland’s offense hasn’t been as strong as last year either, but the dropoff hasn’t been quite as extreme as in Cleveland.
The A’s are in the middle of the pack in baseball in runs scored and have a .240 average and .716 OPS. That’s been without Matt Olson who is now back at first base, unseating a very unsuccessful Kendrys Morales who has a .595 OPS. That right there should make the A’s edge offensively even larger.
Along with Olson, Oakland also has Matt Chapman raking with a 157 OPS+ as he’s picked up where he left off at the end of last season.
Khris Davis is also a dangerous bat and he’s got 10 homers this year, but has gone ice cold the last couple of weeks, contributing to the A’s recent struggles where until Mike Fiers hurled a no-hitter on Tuesday night, the team had lost eight of their last nine games.
Probable Pitchers
The recent numbers aren’t all that optimistic about either starter slated for Saturday, but the Indians have the clear advantage with Trevor Bauer likely getting the ball against Aaron Brooks.
After all, Bauer is the de facto ace of the Indians’ staff now that Corey Kluber is sitting on the IL. Bauer really broke out last year, going 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 175.1 innings last year. He lost a few starts to injury, but still managed to finish sixth in AL Cy Young Award voting and lead the league in FIP.
The now 28-year old right-hander was particularly adept at avoiding the home run and showed improved command. That’s regressed some in 2019.
Bauer is coming off a terrible outing against the White Sox where he allowed eight runs on 10 hits including a couple home runs. He’s now allowed six long balls on the season, five in his last three games. He allowed nine all of last season.
Bauer’s walk rate has also jumped in 2019. He only walked one in five innings last time out, but has 24 total walks in 52.2 innings. Fortunately, he’s still striking people out with 62 Ks this year.
Overall, the numbers are still strong for Bauer who went into his last start with a 2.45 ERA and had a sub-2 mark after his first six starts. Now, he’s 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.158 WHIP.
He’s a good pitcher, but he’s struggling a bit right now. He’s given up one run or less in half of his starts, but over his last 12 innings has allowed 12 runs on 14 hits.
For Brooks, the downturn isn’t quite as recent. The 29-year old right-hander finally got himself back to the big leagues after a few year hiatus and dominated the Red Sox in his first start of the year, going six scoreless. Since then, things have gone downhill.
He’s 2-3 on the year with a 5.74 ERA and 1.340 WHIP in 31.1 innings pitched in six starts. He’s barely averaging five innings an outing.
Brook has struggled to the point Bob Melvin skipped him last time through the rotation. He hasn’t pitched since April 30 when he lasted 4.1 innings, allowing five runs. Brooks has allowed at least three runs in his last five starts and has gotten beyond five frames only once. He’s struggled, regardless of the opponent. We’ll see if the longer layoff allowed him to correct some issues and get back on track to looking like he did in his season debut.
Live Betting
Bauer should get the Indians deeper in the game than Brooks will get the Athletics’s, putting less pressure on a Cleveland bullpen that has outperformed the Oakland pen on the season.
Through the first month and change, the Indians have the second best bullpen in baseball based on ERA at 3.25, well ahead of the A’s who sit near the middle of the pack at 4.40. Some of it is workload as the A’s are exposing some of its struggling arms more.
In Cleveland, Brad Hand has the ninth inning on lockdown with a 1.15 ERA in 15.2 innings. He’s saved 10 games, struck out 25 batters and allowed just 14 runners on via walk or hit. Leading to him, Neil Ramirez, Adam Cimber, Dan Otero, and Nick Wittgren have gotten the job done.
There’s not a ton of depth for the Tribe in the pen, but there’s enough, particularly with someone like Bauer on the bump who tends to go at least six.
Meanwhile, Oakland cannot realistically expect more than five from Brooks, and could very well get less, putting more strain on the pen.
The A’s have Blake Treinen as a strong closing option, but he’s not as unhittable as he was last year. He’s struggled with command and has walked 11 in 15 innings, getting himself in trouble. Even so, the A’s may not even get to him with Joakim Soria and Fernando Rodney slumping.
Lou Trivino is pitching well, but may not be used if the pen gets the ball with a deficit. Liam Hendricks and Yusmeiro Petit are good options to hold the score at bay, but even they aren’t infallible.
MLB Pick
The Indians offense is a major issue that will impact the team’s chance of overcoming the Twins in the AL Central and getting to October, but they should get enough runs to get the win on Saturday against a struggling A’s team.
Brooks has not pitched well and the Oakland bullpen has some serious issues. Look for Cleveland to score enough as Ramirez starts to put together better at bats and Lindor does his best to lead the way for the bats.
At the same time, Oakland’s offense—while better than Cleveland’s—is still not been great, particularly with Davis struggling. Bauer is a good pitcher and should give the Tribe a chance to win before turning the ball over to a strong pen to close things out.
Take the Tribe on the road at BookMaker.eu.
MLB Odds: Indians 5, Athletics 4
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
