With the second-best record in the Cactus League, the Cleveland Indians appear ready for Opening Day on Thursday. ESPN has a full slate of games for the should-be national holiday including the matchup between the Tribe and Seattle Mariners. This game will pin two Cy Young Award winners against each other with Corey Kluber and Felix Hernandez each toeing the rubber in this night-time showdown. Who will come out ahead? Cleveland looks primed to take its first step toward a third straight AL Central title though Seattle—with the help of a bounce back season by King Felix—could be a sleeper squad in the AL.
First pitch for the game between the Cubs and Marlins is scheduled for Thursday, March 29, 2018, at 10 p.m. ET at Safeco Field. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Indians are the cream of the crop in the AL Central and one of the consensus top four teams in the AL heading into the season.
While the best teams on paper don’t always end up being the best over a full season, they are a bit more predictable early before too many injuries.
Cleveland comes into this game with the reigning Cy Young Award winner on the mound and the third best AL offense from a year ago. Seattle scored 68 fewer runs and ranked seventh.
Those advantages are important, of course, but Cleveland’s best asset the last few years has been an excellent bullpen. The entire staff ranked first in baseball with a 3.30 ERA and the bullpen was essential to that with a 2.89 ERA as a unit.
Losses of Bryan Shaw and Joe Smith don’t help to strengthen the pen, but the two key arms are Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. Both have one more year in Cleveland and with Kluber feeding into Miller and Allen, the Seattle offense—no matter how strong—hardly has a chance unless one of them is off their game.
Probable Pitchers
There were questions, but Felix Hernandez gets the Opening Day nod. It’s the 11th such start for the 31-year old.
King Felix almost didn’t get to make this start thanks to a liner off his arm earlier this spring. The injury set the right-hander back a couple weeks and will cause him to be limited on Thursday.
Hernandez won’t go deep into the game. He threw just 3.2 innings in his last Spring Training start, throwing 63 pitches. Looking to avoid extending him too much beyond that, Hernandez will likely be limited to 85-90 pitches in his Opening Day start. Even if he’s throwing well, that’s almost assuredly to be fewer than six innings.
The length will be limited for Hernandez, but his effectiveness could be, too. Even when on the hill, King Felix wasn’t the same pitcher last year as he was in years past. His ERA climbed for the third straight year, as did his FIP.
In 16 starts, Hernandez was 6-5 with a 4.36 ERA and 5.02 FIP. His command out of the zone was on par with years past, but he was susceptible to the homer thanks to iffy control in the zone and lackluster movement. For the first time since he was a 20-year old, Hernandez posted an ERA+ below 100.
While 32 is hardly old, Hernandez has a lot of wear and tear on his arm. He’s thrown a ton of pitches since making his debut as a 19-year old and it’s not hard to imagine that his stuff has permanently deteriorated.
Hernandez is no longer a Cy Young candidate—and hasn’t been for a couple years—but he can still be an effective pitcher. Kluber, meanwhile, is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner.
Kluber was worth a team high 8.2 WAR last year pitching to a 18-4 record with a 2.25 ERA and 0.869 WHIP in 29 starts. Even missing a couple starts, Kluber still threw 203.2 innings and produce a league-leading walk rate with only 36 free passes.
Save for a hiccup in the 2017 postseason, Kluber has shown no signs of slowing down, but his excessive workload the last few years cannot be ignored. He’s thrown at least 200 innings in four straight seasons and has added innings in October the last two years, shortening the offseason recovery time.
While the innings is a concern long-term, it’s merely nitpicking when looking towards Opening Day 2018. After all, in four career starts against Seattle, Kluber is 3-1 with a 1.40 ERA in 30 innings. He’s struck out 35 Mariner hitters.
Live Betting
Hernandez isn’t a popular pitcher to face, but the Indians hitters who have faced King Felix in the past have found success in small sample sizes.
For instance, Yonder Alonso and Jason Kipnis each have six hits in 20 at bats while Edwin Encarnacion is 6-for-28 with a double and two home runs.
The Indians’ offense is deep though the injury to Michael Brantley does hinder the team a bit as they turn to Tyler Naquin to fill the spot in his absence.
Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are elite hitters with average, power and speed. Kipnis, meanwhile, was the sparkplug for the team the last several years before struggling through 2017. He had a strong spring and looks to be back in 2016 form. If true, that’s a big win for the order.
On paper, the Mariners’ offense looks strong, too, but the middle of it is aging. Robinson Cano is now 35 while Nelson Cruz is 37. Both are still top tier players, but it’s always hard to bank on aging players, particularly in the cooler weather months of March and April.
Both Cruz and Cano have had their share of success against Kluber, but overall, the Seattle roster has combined hit .209 against Kluber with a .620 OPS in 110 at bats.
MLB Pick
A few years ago, a Klubot versus King Felix pitching matchup would be a premier event featuring two of the games’ best hurlers.
While Opening Day makes it a compelling event here in 2018, this is no longer a battle of aces. Kluber has the distinct advantage over a declining Hernandez on the mound.
Seattle will hope that Felix is ready to take the ball after an injury abbreviated Spring Training and while there are concerns around Kluber given how much he’s pitched the past few years, the concerns are more about his longevity through another long season rather than his ability to throw well on March 29.
Given that, the pitching goes to the Tribe. The bullpen—even diminished over years past—has the edge over the Mariners’ back end.
At the plate, Cleveland is a deceptively strong team. Seattle can keep pace in a vacuum, but is hardly strong enough to cover the difference on the mound.
Look for the Indians to score a few runs early against King Felix and allow Kluber and the pen to protect the lead.
MLB Odds: Indians 7, Mariners 3
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