Two playoff hopefuls are set to square off in the second to last day of the season on Saturday night as the Washington Nationals play host to the Cleveland Indians. Washington already has clinched a playoff spot but are fighting for home field advantage in the NL Wild Card game. Meanwhile, the Indians are still in a battle to get into October, making this an intriguing interleague showdown.
First pitch for the game between the Indians and Nationals is scheduled for Saturday, September 28, 2019, at 4:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. The matchup will be shown on FS1.
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Odds Analysis
Both the Indians and Nationals have played good baseball down the stretch and each have plenty to play for going into this game. It could be a fun one to watch.
Offensively, the two teams are neck and neck scoring nearly the same number of runs over this last month of the season.
It was a slow offensive start for Cleveland with Jose Ramirez struggling and Francisco Lindor out to start the year, but both are back—Ramirez just coming off the IL.
Ramirez was swinging well before he got injured and he, Lindor and Carlos Santana form a nice core in the middle of the order.
While Franmil Reyes hasn’t lived up to potential since being traded to Cleveland, he does offer some pop while fellow trade partner Yasiel Puig has hit .316 for the Tribe, deepening the lineup.
In Washington, it’s hard to ignore how dominate both Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto have been. Rendon is an MVP candidate with a .322/.410/.603 slash line and 34 homers to go with 124 RBI and 115 runs scored. Soto, meanwhile, has a .285/.404/.553 slash line with 34 bombs and 108 RBI.
In addition to those two, Howie Kendrick has been a hitting machine with a .344 average and Adam Eaton and Trea Turner have been solid on-base guys, each providing a bit of pop of their own.
Probable Pitchers
The Indians’ playoff hopes could very well be hanging in the balance on Saturday and if they are, they’re likely to be in the hands of Adam Plutko.
The 27-year old right-hander has made 20 appearances, including 19 starts, more out of necessity than anything else, but he’s done a good job overall.
In his 108 innings, he’s pitched to a 4.25 ERA and 1.222 WHIP with a 112 ERA+. He’s not the Indians’ best starter and has not been one to go deep in games, but he’s kept the Indians in the game when he’s pitched.
The righty boasts a 7-4 record this season while the Tribe is 14-6 in his 20 appearances.
He hasn’t been a top prospect coming up through the system but did have a 1.70 ERA in 14 starts at Triple-A Columbus last year. He struggled in four starts there in 2019 but has been more than adequate for Cleveland.
That said, there are reasons for concern for Plutko. The young, relatively inexperienced, right-hander has had rather mediocre numbers in his previous MLB chances with the Tribe. He’s also pitched to an inflated FIP this season due largely to his large number of home runs allowed.
Plutko has been fortunate to limit the homers mostly to solo and two-run shots.
Pitching opposite of Plutko in this one is a veteran southpaw with a much more impressive resume, Patrick Corbin.
Although just a couple years Plutko’s senior, Corbin has a lot more major league experience. The seven-year big league veteran is 14-7 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in 197.2 innings spread over 32 starts.
Corbin comes into play with a 3.38 K:BB ratio and just 21 homers allowed, leading to a 3.35 FIP. The peripheral numbers separate Corbin and Plutko more than the conventional ones.
While we could see an early hook for Corbin to help limit his innings in advance of the playoffs, he’s generally been a lock for at least six innings, providing more quantity in addition to more quality as compared to Plukto.
Over his last nine starts, Corbin has a quality start in eight outings and while his walk rate is a bit higher than he’d like, he’s a big strikeout pitcher with 230 strikeouts, giving him the ability to work his way out of the jam with a big swing and miss, a skill Plutko can’t match.
Live Betting
Both teams are playing great baseball down the stretch and both have seen their offenses flourish.
On the mound, the edge seems to go to the Nationals with Corbin, but things do even up a bit when considering the bullpens as the Indians have the best bullpen ERA in baseball while the Nationals have the worst.
The stats are a bit skewed by a terrible start to the year for the Washington pen, but things are a bit better. The unit isn’t incredibly deep, but Sean Doolittle has gotten over fatigue and injury to get back on track while Daniel Hudson has been a nice addition with a 1.57 ERA. He’s taken over in the ninth.
Doolittle and Hudson aren’t a bad one-two punch. Wander Suero, Javy Guerra, and Tanner Rainey meanwhile are at least viable middle inning options.
The Indians, of course, are deeper. Brad Hand is a strong closer while Nick Wittgren, Nick Goody and Hunter Wood have proven themselves good setup options. Should this be a very close game when the pens take over, the Tribe has the edge, but the difference in the starting pitchers may ultimately be the difference maker in this one.
MLB Pick
Look for a good game on Saturday as both teams could still have plenty to play for though the pressure is likely to be more on Cleveland. The Nationals could still have home field advantage on the line, but the Indians may still be fighting for their postseason lives.
Motivation could play a key, but the pitching will as well. Cleveland has the better bullpen, but Washington has the advantage to start the game.
Look for the Nationals offense—with Soto and Rendon leading the way—to get to Plutko early. The young righty could give up a long ball or two, handing Washington an early lead.
While the Nationals’ bullpen isn’t great, there are enough arms to close it out provided Corbin can turn the ball over after a strong start with enough of a buffer.
MLB Odds: Nationals 7, Indians 4
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