Playing a bit better baseball, the Chicago Cubs got back to, and above, .500 while coming out of the gate slow for the second consecutive season. The Cubs are playing flat. They’ll look to get some momentum going over the weekend heading into the series opener against the Colorado Rockies on Monday. In a potential battle of aces, Jon Gray and Jon Lester are lined up for the start. While neither hurler is a classic ace at this point in their respective careers, they both are taking on that leadership role.
First pitch for the game between the Rockies and Cubs is scheduled for Monday, April 30, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
It’ll just be a little over a week since these two teams last met with the Cubs taking two of three from the Rockies at Coors Field. The Cubs, however, have been a better road team on the young season and the same is true of the Rockies who are 9-5 on the road, but 5-7 at home. Getting away from Coors will help the pitching and given the emphasis put on the bullpen this offseason, that’s important.
Speaking of the Rockies’ pen, it features the Cubs’ closer from last year: Wade Davis.
Davis has already locked down nine saves and is a proven veteran in the ninth. He and Bryan Shaw help to further solidify what was a good unit last year.
Adam Ottavino has been the star of the pen to this point with 26 strikeouts in 13.1 innings pitched. He’s walked just three and allowed two hits. That’s five base runners accounting for a minuscule 0.366 WHIP.
Shaw and Jake McGee have had up-and-down starts to the year, but those two along with Ottovino and Davis form a good back-end of the pen able to shut anyone down.
For the Cubs, questions linger if Brandon Morrow can close for the whole season. So far, things have looked good. The former Dodger setup man has notched four saves and has yet to give up a run. Fellow former closers in Justin Wilson and Steve Cishek help provide insurance in the late innings.
Between Brian Duensing, Carl Edwards Jr. and Pedro Strop, there are some electric arms in this unit beyond those with closer’s experience.
Probable Pitchers
Jon Gray only managed to get into 20 games last year due to injury, but continued his trend of lowering his ERA, going 10-4 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.296 WHIP in 110.1 innings.
Gray made his debut in 2015 with a 5.53 ERA in nine starts. He lowered that by a run in a larger sample size in 2016 and copped off another run in 2017.
So far, the 2018 season has been a regression rather than further progression for the now-26-year old right-hander.
Gray is a former top prospect and has the best stuff in the Rockies’ rotation. So far, he hasn’t exactly shown the best execution. Instead, he’s 2-4 in six starts with a 5.79 ERA. He’s leading the league in runs allowed with 21 and hits allowed with 39 showing he’s both getting chances, throwing 32.2 innings and failing.
In his most recent start, Gray looked good, holding the Padres scoreless in six innings. The game was a Coors Field where anyone can hit, but it was still against the Padres. Gray held San Diego scoreless over seven innings in his second start of the year. Despite 13 scoreless innings against the Padres, his ERA is still in the mid-5s.
Gray faced the Cubs in Colorado back on April 20 and it didn’t end well. Wrigley Field is a bit more favorable to the pitcher, but his seven runs allowed in five innings, is not a good sign.
Matching up against Gray in that game was Kyle Hendricks. Jon Lester is in line to get the start on Monday.
Lester has been the one starter in the Cubs’ rotation pitching well in the early going. The rotation is one of the deepest in the league, but most of the arms haven’t found their groove in the cold.
Lester, however, is 2-1 with a 3.29 ERA in five starts. He’s tossed 27.1 innings. While he’s managed to limit the damage, Lester has already walked 10 batters and given his trouble throwing to first base, the added base runners pose a significant problem.
The Cubs’ veteran southpaw missed the Rockies the last time these teams squared off, but has faced them four times in his career, going 1-3 despite a 2.73 ERA in 26.1 innings.
Live Betting
The Cubs will come into this series—and Monday’s series opener—with most of the lineup swinging the bat well.
Anthony Rizzo and Addison Russell are both still struggling, but Ian Happ is starting to make better contact. Albert Almora Jr. has stolen the centerfield job back from Happ and will be in center against the lefty in Gray. Almora is a beast against southpaws and worth keeping an eye on.
Another one to keep a watch on is Javier Baez. He was a huge prospect and his promotion made a big splash in 2014. Since then, a high strikeout rate and no set position has overshadowed the now 25-year old, but he’s having a break out month.
While guys like Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber and others moved past the young second baseman in our consciousness, Baez’s bat is starting to catch up to his glove. He’s leading the team in homers with seven and RBIs with 24. He’s batting .309 and has reduced his strikeout rate.
Baez, Kris Bryant and Schwarber all now have an OPS+ north of 170 while Contreras, Almora and even Jason Heyward are putting up quality offensive numbers around them.
So far this season, the Cubs have outscored the Rockies by 10 runs in five fewer games.
Colorado always has a high-ranking offense, in part because of the park, but the bats are generally the focus of the Rockies.
D.J. LeMahieu, Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado are a dynamic top of the order for anyone, but the bottom half of the Rockies’ lineup hasn’t started hitting. Injuries to Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra don’t help, but neither were swinging well before going down.
David Dahl brings promise in his first couple games back. Trevor Story is still an all-or-nothing hitter, but he’s got six homers and a .349 OBP despite 34 strikeouts.
MLB Pick
The Cubs are out hitting the Rockies and have scored at a much more prolific pace. Colorado’s done better on the road, but Wrigley Field is a tough place to play given the excited fan base in Chicago.
Count on one of Bryant, Baez or Schwarber to drive a multi-run blast off Gray. Gray’s struggled against anyone other than San Diego and the Cubs can hit.
Look for Gray to surrender a few and the middle of the Rockies’ bullpen to be susceptible to a few more runs as Rockies haven’t been lockdown outside of Ottavino and Davis. Meanwhile, Lester is the more experienced pitcher and is throwing better. The Rockies have some thump, they’ll score some runs, but look for the Cubs to come away with the win at home.
MLB Odds: Cubs 7, Rockies 5
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