The Colorado Rockies took the Dodgers to Game 163 last year to decide the NL West, but they’re one of several 2018 playoff teams to get off to a slow start here in 2019 and will try and get back on track in Saturday’s nationally televised showdown against a divisional foe in the San Francisco Giants. Both teams enter play with issues on offense and some genuine concerns. Which team will overcome their slow start and get the victory in this third game of a four-game weekend set?
First pitch for the game between the Rockies and Giants is scheduled for Saturday, April 13, 2019, at 4:05 p.m. ET at Oracle Park. The matchup will be shown on FS1.
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Odds Analysis
It’s been a bad start for the Rockies. The only team given any chance to compete with the Dodgers in the NL West, Colorado has not been able to put it all together, particularly at the plate, scoring only 38 runs in their first 11 games.
The team has always been able to score. The ballpark plays a role, but the offense delivers. It just hasn’t so far. The team has just nine total home runs. Four of those have come off the bat of Trevor Story who has just those homers and five singles this year for a .209 average. He’s brought some pop, but little else so far.
The only other hitters to have yanked one out are David Dahl, who is now on the IL, with two, while Chris Iannetta and Raimel Tapia each have one a piece.
Nolan Arenado is hitting .277, but has a .675 OPS while showing little power thus far. He’s making contact, but not squaring up the ball. Charlie Blackmon does have a .340 OBP atop the order, but he’s also not shown much power yet.
Adding to that, Daniel Murphy and Ryan McMahon are both out, leaving first base to Mark Reynolds. On top of that Garrett Hampson has a .097 OBP at second, Ian Desmond is batting .150 in center, and Iannetta has a .190 average behind the dish. Really, other than Dahl who is out of the picture for this game, everyone has struggled.
On the Giants’ side of things, it’s not any better at the plate. They’ve also scored just 38 runs this year, but they’ve had a couple more games to do it.
The outfield was so bad to start the year, they’ve already made a couple moves including bringing in Kevin Pillar and Tyler Austin. Pillar is a defensive-first outfielder, but with a career 86 OPS+, he’s actually still an offensive upgrade, too. He, however, is hitting .185 in eight games since joining the Giants though he is second on the team—behind Brandon Belt—with two homers.
Austin has looked good in limited chances so far, but there’s a reason that at 27-years old he’s still yet to be given consistent big league at bats.
In total, this is an aging offense with nobody offering even average production in this early stage of the year. Brandon Crawford is batting .289; everyone else with more than 14 at bats has an average of .212 or worse. That’s not going to cut it.
Probable Pitchers
This game features an excellent pitching matchup between a pair of southpaw aces as Madison Bumgarner and Kyle Freeland are lined up to make the start.
Despite both pitchers entering the game with a combined 1-4 record, this is still a strong pitching matchup that should yield a good, close, low-scoring game.
Neither pitcher is coming off a great start as Freeland just gave up a career-high seven runs to the Braves over five innings his last time out and Bumgarner is coming off a five-run, six-inning outing in a loss to the Padres.
Overall this season, Freeland had a strong first outing and was okay in the second though Bud Black had a quick hook. He went just 4.2 innings in that game allowing three runs, but he did strikeout 10. It was his last start that wheels came off.
Interestingly, his last start was his first of the year at home. Coors Field is a tough place for anyone to pitch though Freeland’s found success there in his career. He as 10-2 with a 2.40 ERA in 15 starts there last year in a season where he was 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA in 202.1 innings overall.
The young lefty really came into his own last year, taking a big step forward off an already impressive rookie campaign in 2017. While the high-level numbers were phenomenal, there were some peripheral numbers that indicated he got a bit lucky as his WHIP was 1.245, his K:BB ratio was 2.47 and his FIP was 3.67. Still, he showed himself to be a really dependable arm.
In this one, Freeland goes back on the road where he’s been okay on the young season with 11.2 innings and just four runs allowed—three earned.
On Bumgarner’s side of things, he’s still looking for his first win of the season as he’s off to a 0-2 start though he does have a 3.32 ERA and 16 strikeouts. He has allowed five unearned runs as well.
In three starts, the veteran southpaw has a 0.947 WHIP and has shown the ability to limit walks, but he has allowed four home runs which is quite concerning.
A career 3.04 ERA hurler, Bumgarner has been one of the game’s true aces for years, but he’s been diminished a bit of late due to injury. He’s still just 29-years old, but does already have a lot of wear and tear on the arm.
After four straight years of a sub-3 ERA from 2013 through 2016, his ERA was 3.32 in 2017 and 3.26 in 2018, both over less starts as he spent a good deal of time both years on the DL. He’s healthy now and was still a good pitcher the last couple years when on the mound, just not quite as dominant as in years past.
Speaking of the past, Bumgarner does have some good marks against the Rockies, going 13-8 against them with a 3.04 ERA in 30 starts. Notably, he’s been even better than that at home with an ERA under two in 15 games.
Live Betting
Look for a close game and if this one comes down to the bullpens, the Giants have a clear advantage there.
San Francisco has had a disastrous outfield, an over matched infield and little offense. The starting pitching has been an issue as well, but the bullpen actually looks good.
In 41 innings, the Giants’ pen has a 2.63 ERA, fourth in baseball and first in the NL. While opponents are getting some hits against the pen, San Francisco has kept them from scoring more often than not.
Will Smith is the closer for this team and has a save in all but one of the team’s four victories. He’s one of four pitchers in the pen with closing experience along with Sam Dyson, Mark Melancon and Tony Watson. The team balances righties and lefties well and offers some different looks to keep offenses on their toes.
To this point, everyone has delivered, with Melancon looking particularly good.
For the Rockies, the bullpen hasn’t been terrible, but in nearly the same number of innings, they’ve allowed seven more earned runs and eight more total runs.
They’ve yet to record a save though Wade Davis has pitched well in three appearances at the end of the game. Bryan Shaw has gotten the most innings out of the pen and has a 1.17 ERA in 7.2 innings, but he’s also walked four, allowed a homer, and only notched two strikeouts. Those aren’t encouraging trends for his success to continue. Seunghwan Oh and Scott Oberg, amongst others, have similarly discouraging peripherals.
MLB Pick
Both teams are having issues on offense, making this a strong matchup for both starters, particularly in the pitcher’s friendly Oracle Park.
Both starters are too good to not bounce back in this one. Look for both to go at least six frames and hurl a quality start before turning the ball over to the bullpen. That’s where the Giants get the edge. They’ve good a good, deep pen and should be able to hold down a struggling Rockies’ lineup to give their offense—as questionable as it is—a chance to score and grab the win.
In the end, this should be a close game. Look for it to go down to the wire, but take the home team and the veteran starter to get the victory. The bullpen is the ultimate difference in this one.
MLB Odds: Giants 4, Rockies 3
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