This is supposed to be a soft part in the Boston Red Sox schedule, but at this point, every game is an important one as they try to avoid getting further and further behind here in April. You can’t win a World Series in April. Boston just doesn’t want to lose one. The Detroit Tigers, meanwhile, have no such dreams of October, but have been playing great baseball as they get ready for a four-game road series in Boston, including an interesting game-three matchup on Wednesday night.
First pitch for the game between the Dodgers and Brewers is scheduled for Wednesday, April 24, 2019, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
In route to a World Series title in 2018, the Sox beat the Tigers in four of their six head-to-head contests last year, but that was a different Red Sox team, particularly at the plate.
Last year, the Sox led baseball in runs scored, this year, they’re in the bottom half of the league. That will change, but for now, this Boston offense isn’t clicking on all cylinders. The catcher and second base position are major holes and the team’s reigning MVP in Mookie Betts has barely been a league average bat so far this season.
Meanwhile, Jackie Bradley Jr.’s bat has been non-existent and Rafael Devers’ power has seemingly disappeared. Steve Pearce hasn’t been the guy that was World Series MVP. There are a few in the lineup hitting well like J.D. Martinez with a 1.003 OPS and Mitch Moreland with his six homers and 13 RBIs, but it’s not been enough.
That said, it’s still been better than the Tigers who rank dead last in baseball in runs scored. The team’s batting .220 with a .627 OPS and has scored just 57 runs.
With Christin Stewart on the IL now, Niko Goodrum is the lone standing positive offensive story of the young season in Detroit. He’s also the lone standing player with an OPS+ over Nick Castellanos’ 91 save Gordon Beckham who has just 29 at bats.
The offense should be better. Miguel Cabrera looks old and has yet to hit a home run. He’s not the player he was, but is better than he’s shown.
Probable Pitchers
Like the rest of the Red Sox rotation, Eduardo Rodriguez hasn’t found much success in his first four starts of the season. He’s slated to take the bump on Wednesday, looking to change that.
The young lefty has played in parts of five years at the big league level, but still remains a talented, but inconsistent hurler.
In his four 2019 starts, he’s got a 7.20 ERA in 20 innings. He’s 1-2 with a 1.650 WHIP and 4.80 FIP. He’s got good stuff that can get the strikeouts, but does struggled a bit with the free passes and long ball.
E-Rod through 5.1 innings in his last start, giving up four runs against the Rays. The final line wasn’t good, but it was still an encouraging outing overall. He’ll try and parlay that into an even better one against a woeful Tigers’ offense. He, however, has struggled against good and bad offenses alike.
In his career against the Tigers, he’s gone 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.304 WHIP in four starts.
On the other side of this matchup is a more veteran arm in the 32-year old Tyson Ross, though the right-hander’s career has been plagued by health issues.
When he’s been healthy, he’s been good, but he’s also the keeper of a .396 winning percentage though his career ERA is still a solid 3.94.
This year, the righty is just 1-2 in four starts, but has a 3.38 ERA. His FIP, however, leaves plenty to be desired at 4.97. That’s because of four home runs allowed and a 1.89 strikeout to walk ratio. He’ll walk his share, but that ratio is mainly driven by a low strikeout rate. He’s not one to get a ton of swing and miss, but does a good job avoiding the hard contact.
Ross is a good, mid-rotation innings eater though he can get out of sync. That’s when everything goes off the rails. If he loses his slider, Ron Gardenhire needs to be on top of it and get him out of the game. All four of his homers allowed—and most of his hard contact—has come on hanging sliders.
Live Betting
The Red Sox’s bullpen was expected to take a hit when they didn’t sign Joe Kelly or Craig Kimbrel. The team didn’t replace them either, letting the internal options take over in the latter innings.
Ryan Braiser and Matt Barnes have risen to the occasion and pitched exceptionally well, but that’s left the middle innings a hit vulnerable and it shows in the team’s 5.03 ERA in the pen, third form the bottom in the AL ahead of only Kansas City and Baltimore, not exactly the best of the best.
If the starting pitching can get Boston to the seventh, the Sox have a good back-end, but that’s been a major issues to this point for the Red Sox.
Interestingly, the bullpen for the Tigers ranks first in the AL with a 3.08 ERA as a unit. That’s largely been how this team has managed to float around .500 despite a lackluster rotation and a terrible offense.
If the Tigers can get to their pen with the lead, this game should swing heavily in their favor. Shane Greene is throwing very well right now and has nine saves along with a 1.64 ERA.
MLB Pick
The Tigers offense is really bad, but E-Rod has really struggled all year and the Tigers should be able to scratch across a couple against him. The Sox’s bullpen has had its issues, too, and Detroit could add on.
Look for Ross to pitch well enough before turning the ball over to a surprisingly strong Tigers’ bullpen to close the door. With Betts and a number of other key players struggling right now, the offense in Boston could struggled to get enough consist hard contact against Ross to really tack on the runs.
Boston is the better team on paper and they’re playing at home which should give them the added advantage. They’ll be favored in this game, but take the points and back the Tigers given the pitching matchup and what we’ve seen to this point in the 2019 campaign.
Take the visiting Tigers to get the upset win at BookMaker.eu.
MLB Odds: Tigers 6, Red Sox 5
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