Not exactly a premier matchup, but the Detroit Tigers do sit in second place in the AL Central despite a lackluster 13-17 record. In the third game of a four-game series, the Tigers will face a familiar, divisional foe in the Kansas City Royals. The Royals are at the beginning of a rebuild and currently sit with the second worst record in the American League though they did take the first game of the series aginst the Tigers.
First pitch for the game between the Tigers at Royals is scheduled for Saturday, May 5, 2018, at 4:15 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium. The matchup will be shown on Fox Sports 1.
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Odds Analysis
The season has gotten off to a rough start for the Royals who needed a win on Thursday to improve to 9-22. They’ve been worse at home, too, so playing at Kauffman isn’t exactly helpful. They’re 4-12 in 16 home games.
Meanwhile, the Tigers are 9-8 in their last 17 games. That’s not an amazing stretch, but compared to what the Royals have done to this point, it’s amazing.
A lot of the Royals’ issues so far can be traced back to a terrible offense. They scored 10 on Thursday thanks to a three-hit game from both Lucas Duda and Alex Gordon. Gordon is now batting a solid .303, but Duda’s still hitting only .235 with a .637 OPS as he’s off to a slow start. Duda’s always been a streaky hitter. KC is hopeful the big game on Thursday is the start of a good streak. Up to this point, it’s been a lot of bad.
The Royals certainly need to get someone rolling. For the most part, the offense has been just Mike Moustakas and Jorge Soler. Gordon is swinging well since coming off the DL and Salvador Perez is certainly a step up from Drew Butera. The offense is better than the numbers suggest, but still not very good.
The Tigers, on the other hand, have gotten some solid at bats from Jeimer Candelario, Jacoby Jones and Leonys Martin in addition to Miguel Cabrera and Nick Castellanos. The Tigers have more depth in the order than KC for sure.
Probable Pitchers
A pair of rebuilding teams send a couple veterans to the bump in this Saturday afternoon showdown with Jordan Zimmermann, off his best start of the year, going toe-to-toe against the Royals who turn to Jason Hammel to outduel Zimmermann. Hammel is coming off his worst start of the year.
Statistically, Zimmermann has been the worst pitcher in a surprisingly solid Tigers rotation. The 32-year old right-hander is 1-0 in six starts, surprisingly avoiding losses, but has a 5.81 ERA and 78 ERA+. He’s made six starts, but tossed only 26.1 total innings, average fewer than five frames a start and has allowed 30 hits already, including five home runs.
Despite the high number of hits, Zimmermann’s WHIP is still a respectable 1.367 due to a lower walk rate and he’s recorded the strikeout this year with 27. The problem has been when they opposing team puts the ball in play, they hit it hard.
Overall, it’s been years since Zimmermann has been an effective pitcher, though he did toss seven scoreless against the Rays his last time out, allowing just two hits. Can he build off that?
On the other side, Hammel is now 0-3 after taking the loss against the Red Sox, allowing eight runs in 4.2 innings, including allowed a pair of home runs. Prior to that loss, Hammel had a 3.38 ERA through his first five starts, though the Royals have yet to win any game Hammel has started.
The 35-year old veteran hasn’t had a strong career against the Tigers either. He’s faced Detroit on 16 occasions, making 13 starts. In that time, he’s 3-3 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.619 WHIP.
Live Betting
The Tigers have the slight edge in the first few innings of the game given the Royals’ in ability to win with Hammel on the mound and Detroit’s deeper offense.
As the game progresses, however, the close game could start skewing more in the favor of the Royals.
Kelvin Herrera has looked lights out so far. He’s allowed one run in 11.2 innings, giving up eight hits, no walks and striking out 14.
Leading to Herrera, the Royals’ bullpen isn’t as strong as it was during the championship years, but KC still manages to find useful pieces. Ned Yost does burn them out from time-to-time due to over use, but we’re early enough in the year that shouldn’t be a factor.
In Detroit, the bullpen woes have been the story of the decade. Whether the team’s been good—or, like now, not so good—they have issues closing out games they should win.
Shane Greene and Alex Wilson are the late game arms and they’ve already allowed 19 runs in a little over a month.
MLB Pick
Neither of these offenses are really that good, but these two pitchers have seen better days. Despite Zimmermann’s strong last start, we’ve seen enough to know that he’s not the pitcher he was in Washington. As for Hammel, his last start—albeit against a powerful lineup in Boston—is more indicative of where his game is right now than the stronger starter leading up to it.
While the Royals are at home and Kauffman is a pitcher friendly park, look for both starters to struggle and the middle relievers to fail to put out the fires.
A couple big innings for the Tigers will be enough to come away with the victory. After all, Detroit—even with a below .500 record—has been better this season than the lowly Royals.
MLB Odds: Tigers 9, Royals 6
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