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The New York Yankees are seemingly out of the AL East. Even with the Red Sox having some issues over the last week, the Bronx Bombers are 7.5-back, but they’re first in the AL Wild Card picture and appear destined for the postseason. They’re competition on Saturday, on the other hand, are firmly focused on the future as the Detroit Tigers are in complete free fall right now. The Yankees have a good opportunity to pad their record on Saturday against the Tigers as they send their ace, Luis Severino, to the mound opposite the Tigers’ beleaguered veteran, Jordan Zimmermann.
First pitch of the game between the Yankees and Tigers is scheduled for Saturday, September 1, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. The matchup will be televised regionally on FS1.
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Odds Analysis
Few teams in baseball have been even close to as bad as the Tigers have been since June 19. Since that time, Detroit is 17-43 over 60-games. They’ve had a .283 winning percentage since mid-June. Over the course of the season, that would put them with a worse record than even the Orioles and Royals.
Over the last month, the Tigers have really struggled, plating the fewest runs in the AL with just three and half runs per game. They’re batting .236 as a team in that time with little power and a .297 OBP.
Nick Castellanos is the only real threat in the Detroit lineup. He’s had a good year with a .290/.344/.487 slash line, but on the Yankees, his .831 OPS would rank fifth amongst active players with at least 50 plate appearances. That doesn’t even include the likes of Aaron Judge or Didi Gregorius on the DL. Meanwhile, on with the Tigers, he’s the only hitter with an OPS over the .729 Jim Adduci has produced in 115 plate appearances.
It’s really hard to compare these offenses as they’re so far apart. The Yankees, even with Judge out, have scored the third most runs in August. They’re still leading baseball in homers with 215. The next highest team has hit 29 fewer. The Tigers have hit 109 fewer. The Yankees have a .780 OPS to Detroit’s .675 and the Bronx Bombers have also been a better running team. Not only are they far more equipped to hit the ball out of the yard, but they're better equipped to manufacture runs if needed as well.
Probable Pitchers
Luis Severino has won his last two starts as he tries to get back on track. Of course, playing the Orioles in his last start helps, but the Tigers aren’t a powerhouse team either.
The young Yankee right-hander was an All-Star in the first half and a Cy Young contender, but has struggled since the break, but may finally be getting back on track.
Overall, he’s still got strong numbers going 17-6 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in 27 starts. He’s tossed 165 innings and has a 10.3 strikeout per nine inning ratio and has a 3.10 FIP as he’s done a solid job keeping the walks low and the ball in the yard with just 18 homers allowed.
The 24-year old has amassed a 4.4 rWAR, but since the break, he’s 3-4 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.609 WHIP. His strikeout rate has actually increased, but the home run and hits rate have skyrocketed as he’s struggled a bit with his control in the zone. He’s been hit harder.
Severino went eight innings and allowed two runs—one earned—on four hits and no walks when he faced the Tigers back in June. Of course, his ERA was 2.31 going into the game then. Now, it’s a full run higher, but he is coming off back to back good starts. He’s not going as deep in games, combining for just 10.2 innings in two starts, but has allowed only four runs and struck out 16.
It seems Aaron Boone is trying to protect the righty a bit and he doesn’t figure to go deep in the game against Detroit either, but if the last two starts—also against below-.500 clubs—are any indication, Severino is back on the upswing.
On the other side of the matchup, Jordan Zimmermann hasn’t pitched that well in the second half, either. He’s 2-5 with a 5.50 ERA since the break. He’s 6-6 with a 4.38 ERA overall, a bounce back after how bad he was last year, but his ERA+ is still just 102.
This matchup is the Yankees’ struggling ace against a struggling mid-rotation arm for the Tigers. That doesn’t bode well for Detroit though Zimmermann’s numbers against the Yankees are more encouraging. The veteran right-hander is 3-1 with a 3.09 ERA against the Bronx Bombers, including a seven inning shutout last year in a season Zimmermann pitch poorly in nearly every other game.
Zimmermann is a grizzled veteran who may be able to get through the Yankee lineup, but he’s also a starter who has allowed 11 runs in 11 combined innings against the White Sox in two of his last three starts.
Live Betting
The Yankees are a much better offensive team and have the better starting pitcher on Saturday; it seems like overkill to consider the bullpens, but the Yankees are miles ahead of the Tigers there, too.
New York has a 3.11 bullpen ERA, second best in baseball. The Tigers’ pen ERA is 4.51 and rising. Joe Jimenez was the Tigers representative in the All-Star game. While he was there simply because the Tigers needed a representative, he was having a nice year in a setup role to Shane Greene, pitching to a 2.72 ERA. Since the break, Jimenez has allowed 12 runs in 11.1 innings, including three home runs and seven walks.
Beyond Jimenez, Greene has been hittable, though he has at least covered eight of nine saves, but Daniel Stumpf, Alex Wilson and Buck Farmer have all had their second half woes.
While the Yankees are missing closer Aroldis Chapman and haven’t gotten what they expected from Zach Britton, the Yankees are in a much better position than the Tigers. Britton is still an experienced closer as is David Robertson who is throwing the ball well.
In addition to Robertson and Britton, Dellin Betances has allowed just one run in 13.1 innings since the break, Tommy Kahnle has pitched better since being recalled, and Chad Green remains a more-than-viable option.
MLB Pick
While Zimmermann has been good against the Yankees in his career, he’s not throwing the ball all that well right now and has allowed 12 homers in his last seven games. Meanwhile, the Yankees are an offense that can hit the long ball.
Look for the Yankees to take Zimmermann deep a couple times and mount a sizeable lead for Severino. Severino is unlikely to make it past six innings, but look for him to leave with the lead after a solid outing, building off his last two appearances.
From there, the Yankee bullpen may not be at full strength, but it’s good enough to beat a Tigers’ team without much outside Castellanos. It’s also much better than the Tigers’ bullpen which has seen even its best arms struggle here in the second half.
The Yankees will continue building the lead as the game progresses, eventually winning with a sizeable margin.
MLB Odds: Yankees 9, Tigers 3
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