Pitching wins championships and both the Houston Astros and Cleveland Indians have pitching—at least starting pitching, giving us some epic pitching matchups throughout the four-game series. The whole series could be a postseason preview. While the Indians haven’t hit their stride, yet, they’re still the team to beat in the AL Central just as the Astros are in the AL West. In the third game of this series on Saturday, we’ll see Lance McCullers Jr. matchup against Carlos Carrasco in would could be a pitchers’ duel.
First pitch for the game between the Astros and Indians is scheduled for Saturday May 26, 2018, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Progressive Field. The matchup will be shown on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
The Indians have a strong rotation and have outscored the rest of the sport in May, yet Cleveland continues to hover around-.500.
Much of that can be attributed to the bullpen, but there’s got to be more to it. The Indians are hitting, but they’re offense is primarily consolidated to a few key hitters. Still, the team has 123 runs scored in May with a .825 team OPS.
In May, the duo of Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor can only be outdone by Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez in Boston.
Ramirez just continues to get better and better. The MVP candidate last year is really coming into his own. He’s now boasting a 1.000 OPS thanks to a .296/.391/.609 slash line. And, Lindor has been nearly as good. He’s hitting .306 with a dozen homers.
In addition to the power tandem in the infield, Michael Brantley is finally fully healthy and he looks like the same guy that broke out in 2014. He’s batting .338 with a .937 OPS, the best of his career if he’s able to sustain it.
On Houston’s side of things, they don’t have anyone as scorching hot as Lindor or Ramirez, but they have plenty of quality hitters, even with Josh Reddick on the DL.
Tony Kemp has been excellent in his first few games back in the Majors filling in for Reddick. Meanwhile, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman are all quality young players hitting well above league average.
Probable Pitchers
Only in Houston does Lance McCullers Jr. qualify as a bottom of the rotation arm. The 24-year old right-hander was an All-Star last year and has a 3.54 ERA and 3.09 FIP in 68 big-league starts.
Despite being so young, McCullers has already established himself as a reliable arm, when healthy and he’s certainly healthy right now.
The righty is 6-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 2.85 FIP. He’s tossed 59 innings in his 10 starts, averaging just under six frames a start.
This will be the second straight start against the Indians for McCullers who pitched a beauty against Cleveland down in Houston, bringing a no-hitter into the seventh. He ultimately went seven scoreless innings, walking two and allowing one hit. He struck out eight batters in that game has 66 strikeouts on the season.
Just like last time out, McCullers will pitch opposite Carlos Carrasco on Saturday. While McCullers was lights out against the Indians last game, Carrasco wasn’t much easier for the Astros to hit. He went 7.2 innings, allowing three runs on eight hits while walking one.
Going into last game, Carrasco and McCullers had nearly identical numbers, but with seven scoreless for McCullers, he went ahead of Carrasco in most categories.
Despite that, Carrasco still boasts strong numbers—and more innings than McCullers.
Carrasco is 5-3 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.065 WHIP. He’s got his lowest strikeout rate since 2013, but has maintained a strong strikeout to walk ratio in the process as he’s cut down on the walks a bit. The 31-year old right-hander has also already thrown two complete games as he’s shown the ability to go deep in the games, something that’s extra important given the struggles of the Indians’ bullpen.
Live Betting
Speaking of those bullpens, it’s been a bit of a mess in Cleveland.
The pen was the strength—or at least one of them—over the last few seasons, but in 2018, they’ve got the second worst ERA of any bullpen in baseball.
Hiccups by Cody Allen and Andrew Miller recently has made the bullpen woes of the Indians that much more of an issues. Fortunately for Cleveland, Miller has pitched back-to-back scoreless outings while Allen has done the same, notching his seventh save last time out.
If Carrasco can go seven, look for Miller and Allen to close pitch the rest of the game, keeping the ball out of the hands of the rest of the pen. That’s probably for the best with Terry Francona unable to find anyone else to rely on.
On the other side, the Astros don’t need nearly as many innings from McCullers. Five or six strong frames is enough before the AL’s best bullpen takes over. Houston’s pen ERA is 2.76, nearly three runs better than the Tribe’s.
Overall, Houston’s pitching depth is insane. Given the stacked rotation, they’ve pushed a couple mid-rotation type starters to the pen where Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock have thrived. Meanwhile, Chris Devenski is the versatile arm that can pitch in any tight situation. Even Ken Giles is doing well. He’s yet to walk a batter in 16 innings.
MLB Pick
This is a great pitching matchup between a couple underrated arms. Look for both to hurl a gem, turning it over to the bullpen to be the difference in this game.
Given the struggles of the Indians’ bullpen this season—even with Miller and Allen—look for Houston to come away with the victory.
Cleveland’s offense has been hot, but McCullers and a deep, deep Astros’ bullpen should be able to hold the Tribe at bay. After all, most of the production is still coming from three key players.
Look for the Astros to scratch across a couple late runs that’ll ultimately be the difference in a close pitchers’ duel.
MLB Odds: Astros 4, Indians 2
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