After the Houston Astros took two of three at home against the Cleveland Indians, the two division leaders will face-off in another weekend series, this time in an extended four-game set starting on Thursday. Houston will look for another series win in this one and the Astros certainly look like the better team, again. Nevertheless, this series—again—features some excellent pitching matchups with three rematches plus and talented fourth matchup that should keep each game in this four-game series close.
The opening game of the series between the Astros and Indians is slated for Thursday, May 24, 2018 at 6:10 p.m. ET. The four-game series continues through Sunday, May 27, 2018. The series will take place at Progressive Field in Cleveland with all four games broadcast nationally. MLB Network will carry out-of-market coverage of the games on Thursday, Friday and Sunday while Saturday night’s game will be broadcast on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
According to most pundits, there are three elite teams in baseball that stand above the rest of the pack and one of them is the Houston Astros. With a .625 winning percentage, Houston ranks third in baseball and has been even better on the road than at home with a 16-7 road record.
The Indians, like the Astros, are first in their division, but the AL Central is a lot less competitive than the AL West. Cleveland is tops despite a 22-23 record. At home, however, the Tribe has been much more akin to a division leader, going 13-9.
In their series last week in Houston, the Astros took two-of-three and will be looking to win another series, this time on the road.
Houston’s been playing better ball largely on the strength of a deep bullpen and lights out rotation though the Indians have been red-hot at the plate in the month of May, leading baseball with 112 runs scored. Houston ranks No.23 with 40 less runs in the same number of games.
The Astros are still waiting for Jose Altuve’s bat to come alive. He’s batting .316 with a solid .367 OBP, but he’s hit just two homers and has only three steals. That’s a far cry from his 24 home run and 32 steal season of 2017. We expect more from Altuve, but at least he’s getting on base while George Springer, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman each have a 125 OPS+ or better.
Houston’s lineup is still deep with talent, but the unit is not clicking on all cylinders right now. Cleveland’s lineup, on the other hand, is clicking.
While the Astros have three hitters with OPS+ number over 125, the Tribe has three of at least 143 in Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor and Michael Brantley.
They also have sluggers in Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso who are finally starting to find their strokes after slow starts. Jason Kipnis is still a black hole at second and there are still other issues in the outfield, but the team’s scoring and the middle of the order is scorching hot.
Probable Pitchers
Neither team has officially announced the starting rotation for this series, but the Astros have five No.1 pitchers based on their performances to this point in the season, giving them a legitimate chance day-in and day-out based on who is on the mound.
The ace among aces in the Houston rotation is Justin Verlander. He’s the one starter not likely to get a start in this series, facing the Giants on Wednesday prior to the series.
Other than Verlander, the other four starters should all get a start in this series. Charlie Morton would be on turn to get the start on Thursday with Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr. and Gerrit Cole following him in that order.
For the Indians, Mike Clevinger should make Thursday’s start as part of the regular rotation. Friday through Sunday’s starters should be Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer in that order. This would essentially create three rematches in the four-game set.
In the three game series in Houston, the Astros won two of three, taking the two games started by Morton and McCullers while dropping the Kluber versus Keuchel battle of former Cy Young Award winners.
Thursday’s series opener will be a rematch of the last series opener with Morton and Clevinger facing off. In the previous game, Morton go the win, tossing seven innings, allowing one run and four hits while striking out eight. He improved his ERA to 1.94 in the start and improved his record to 6-0. Meanwhile, Clevinger—despite a slid 6.1 innings where he allowed three runs—dropped to 3-1 on the year though his 2.87 ERA remains very strong.
Clevinger did allow 12 base runners in the loss, including four walks as the Astros were patient, working him for 106 pitches in just over six innings of work. These are two good pitchers, but Morton has had the better season and pitched better last time out.
In the second game of this series, Kluber and Keuchel get a rematch. Kluber out pitched Keuchel in Houston where the southpaw is traditionally at his best. Kluber threw seven innings, allowing two runs and striking out 10 Astros. The two-time Cy Young Award winner is now 7-2 with a 2.36 ERA after the start and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in 10 games this season. He’s yet to have a start that wasn’t a quality start.
Keuchel’s season—just like his last start—has been a bit more choppy than Kluber’s. He allowed four runs in five innings against the Indians. While the start was bad, he’s still pitching to a 3.43 ERA, but his 3-6 record is a concern.
The southpaw is pitching pretty well overall, but is not a big strikeout pitcher and needs the defense behind him to help him out. That said, his loss against Cleveland in Houston last week was the first time he lost a start to the Tribe. In his career, Keuchel is 4-1 with a 2.76 ERA against the Indians in seven career games.
The series continues on Saturday with a game on FOX featuring McCullers and Carrasco on the bump. These two closed out the series in Houston in a head-to-head battle on Sunday. McCullers got the win with seven shutout innings. He took a no-hitter into the seventh, before allowing a knock. His lights out performance lowered his ERA to 3.20 and improved his record to 6-2.
Carrasco took the loss, his third of the year, allowing three runs in 7.2 innings. Both starters threw well, but McCullers had the better game. He also has the superior stats this year. He’s got the better record, better ERA and a 1.136 WHIP with 10.1 strikeouts per nine. Carrasco’s WHIP is better at 1.065, but strikes favor McCullers.
The two starters had nearly identical numbers going into last game and are evenly matched again in the third game of a four game set.
Closing out the series, the matchup will feature Cole and Bauer. There was a bit of a Twitter spat featuring these two earlier in the season and it’ll be interesting to see the matchup.
Cole’s had a breakout season in Houston. He’s 4-1 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.795 WHIP. He’s leading the league in strikeouts with 93 in 61.2 innings, giving him a 13.6 strikeout per nine ratio. He’s also boasting a 1.94 FIP and walk rate in line with his 2015 season when he received Cy Young Award votes.
Cole, however, did fail to record a quality start his last time out, going just five innings against the Angels. Los Angeles made him pitching as he threw 98 pitches in the shortened outing. With all the strikeouts, his pitch count can get elevated and the Indians will try and get past him to the pen. That’s easier said than done as he’s averaging just shy of seven innings a start and threw a 16-strikeout, complete game shutout back on May 4.
Bauer, meanwhile, is 3-3 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.119 WHIP in nine starts. He’s done well limiting homers and has a really low BABIP compared to last year. Some regression may come as a result of that.
Still, Bauer’s now been an elite level pitcher for most of a full season. In the second half of 2017, he went 10-2 with a 3.01 ERA. Bauer was a pitcher that was hard to rely on for the first few years of his career, but he’s becoming a consistent performer. He’s always been that against the Astros. In his career against Houston, Bauer is 7-0 with a 2.89 ERA in seven starts.
Live Betting
In the bullpen, Houston has many more options than the Indians. For Cleveland, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen are the reliable arms.
Both Allen and Miller struggled some recently though Allen has been scoreless in three of four outings—Marwin Gonzalez’s homer off him on Saturday the lone exception. All in all, this isn’t the bullpen we’re used to seeing in Cleveland.
Along with the better bullpen, Houston has also made the fewest errors in the American League, half as many as the Indians.
At the same time, George Springer is batting .338 in May while Alex Bregman has a .273/.368/.500 slash line and Brad Peacock and Colin McHugh have combined for 12 scoreless innings in the month.
Flipping over the Tribe, pretty much the entire pen has struggled through May though along with a .304 average from Encarnacion the team is also getting better production at second base.
Kipnis remains lost at the plate, but Erik Gonzalez has come up and produced. He’s hitting .440 in 10 games in May.
MLB Pick
We have great starting pitching on both sides of this matchup. The edge has to go to Houston in that category given how amazing the Astros’ rotation has been to this point in the season, but Cleveland’s starters should keep their team in the game.
From there, the bullpens could decide the fate of each game and that’s excellent news for a stacked bullpen in Houston. The Astros have a couple starter stashed in the pen and pitching out of their minds for a chance back in this stacked rotation.
The one saving grace for the Indians in this series is their red-hot offense. Their bats are performing much better than the Astros this month and while Houston can matchup offensively based on the names on paper, the production hasn’t quite been there.
Look for the Astros pitching to carry them to a series win, but a four-game sweep is hard, particularly against an offense like Cleveland. Count on the Indians to steal a win—perhaps in the game started by Kluber like they did last weekend. Of course, a series split is also a distinct possibility for this series given the Indians are at home and their bats are swinging well.
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