While in the running early, the Los Angeles Angels now sit 14-games back of the division leading Houston Astros as they get set to host the defending World Series Champions as the second half of the season kicks off. These two squads will match up in the middle game of three on Saturday with the Astros giving ace Justin Verlander the ball and the Angels hoping Nick Tropeano’s return from the DL is a triumphant one in an apparent rotational mismatch.
First pitch of the game between the Astros and Angels is scheduled for Saturday, July 21, 2018, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium. The matchup will be televised regionally on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
The Astros were 29-games over-.500 in the first half and has a +188 run differential, illustrating just how strong of a season they’ve had to date.
Houston, however, did go into the break going 3-4 in its last seven games, including dropping three of four against the Athletics at home. Before that, however, they had won six in a row.
In six head-to-head matchups between the Angels and Astros this season, the teams split three games apiece though Houston did outscore Los Angeles by three total runs in their first six meetings.
Two of the three wins the Angels have over Houston this year came in April. Since then, the Angels haven’t had a winning month. In fact, the Angels are 8-13 in their last 21 games.
Offensively, these two teams have a wide gap between them. The Astros have the second best offense behind the Red Sox with 500 runs scored and a .768 team OPS. The Angels don’t have nearly as good of an OBP as Houston and has scored 75 runs fewer with a .729 team OPS.
On the mound is a similar concept as the Astros have a 2.94 team ERA thanks to a great rotation and better than thought bullpen. The Angels are allowing nearly a run more per game.
Probable Pitchers
With a 9-5 record and 2.29 ERA, Justin Verlander would have been in the discussion for the All-Star Game start had he not pitched on the Sunday before. Instead, he sat out the exhibition and is in line to start the second game of the second half.
While Verlander’s first half produced exceptional numbers with a 2.83 FIP, 0.835 WHIP and 7.17 strikeout to walk ratio, he didn’t go into the break pitching his best, going 0-3 with a 4.10 ERA in his six starts prior to the break.
Even in those six games, Verlander still have three double-digit strikeout games including in his last start, sitting down 12 former teammates for the Tigers to elevate himself to No.26 all-time in strikeouts.
This year against the Angels, he’s got a complete game shutout the last time he faced them in Anaheim and also went seven strong, allowing two-runs in a game down in Houston. He won both games he started against the Angels this year and is 10-8 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in 21 career starts against Los Angeles in his career.
On the other side of this pitching matchup, Nick Tropeano is coming off the DL to make this start. His last big league start came in mid-June. He did throw two good rehab starts leading up to this start.
On the season, Tropeano is 3-4 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.352 WHIP in 10 starts. He has had a little issue with the home run, giving up nine in 54 innings. He’s also got a 2.2 strikeout to walk ratio as his walk rate is slightly elevated and he’s not exactly a strikeout pitcher.
Tropeano has had one start against Houston this year, going 5.1 innings on April 25. In that start, Tropeano took the loss and allowed four runs on four hits, walking three and allowing a home run.
In three career starts against the Astros, Tropeano has allowed 10 runs in 14.2 innings. He’s also been a much better pitcher on the road than at home, pitching to a 4.95 career ERA at home in 17 starts.
Live Betting
The Astros have a clear advantage on the mound in this game, but the advantage extends to the offense, too.
Houston’s offense is stacked. They’re without Carlos Correa, but Max Stassi has stepped up behind the palte with a .792 OPS and others like Yuli Gurriel and Evan Gattis go along with All-Stars Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and George Springer to form a stacked lineup.
While most teams are focused on power, the Astros certainly have pop with Bregman, Gattis and Springer, but they also have speed and strong contact skills. This team, more than most, puts the ball in play to make things happen.
Meanwhile, behind Verlander on the mound in this game, the Astros have an underrated bullpen. Ken Giles gets the press for his struggles, but even he has a 2.26 FIP—though for now he’s in the minors. In his absence, Hector Rondon will fill in at closer and he’s got eight saves and a 1.57 ERA. Along with him, Brad Peacock and Collin McHugh have seen their stuff play huge in the pen. McHugh, in fact, has a 0.96 ERA while pitching multiple innings out of the pen. Then, Tony Sipp, Chris Devenski and Will Harris give A.J. Hinch a number of different looks to choose from to find the best matchup.
Flipping to the other side, the Angels’ bats—and bullpen—cannot really compare.
Mike Trout is the best player in the game and ignoring the commissioner’s comments on him, he’s about as complete a player as you can find, but he’s struggled against Verlander, going just 2-for-27; though those two hits were home runs.
Even with those poor numbers, Trout is the least of the concern regardless of who he goes against. He’s got a .310/.454/.606 slash line. Albert Pujols is the only Angels to have good numbers against Verlander and he’s on the DL.
MLB Pick
The Astros have been one of the best offensive team in baseball this season and has the best run differential in the sport. They’re clearly the better team and even though Verlander hasn’t been quite himself over the last month, he’s still an elite level pitcher.
Mike Trout may get to Verlander—that’ll be a fun matchup either way—but the Angels offense isn’t that deep. Look for Verlander to navigate his way through six or seven solid innings before giving the ball to an underrate bullpen to close the door.
Meanwhile, Tropeano will undoubtedly be a bit rusty. Look for the Astros to come out strong against him and with a couple All-Stars in the lineup they should be able to rediscover their timing out of the break quickly.
Houston will grab an early lead and run with it to victory in this middle game of three. Los Angeles may still a game in this series, but’s not likely to be Saturday.
MLB Odds: Astros 6, Angels 3
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