The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels begin Round Two of the battle for the AL West on Monday with another three-game showdown. The Angels won the first round with a 2-1 series win and will look to make it back-to-back series victories to get back to first place in the division. For now, the Astros hold that honor and will try to widen the gap behind their collection of All-Star starters slated to the take the hill.
First pitch for the opening game in the series between the Angels and Astros is scheduled for Monday, May 14, 2018, at 10:07 p.m. ET at Angels Stadium with the next two games on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Monday’s matchup will be broadcast nationally on MLB Network outside the local broadcasting areas.
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Odds Analysis
Typically playing at Angel Stadium should be an advantage to the Angels, but Los Angeles has—surprisingly—been a much better team on the road than at home.
The Angels took the series against the Astros in Houston, but at 14-4 on the road and just 10-12 at home, the series in Anaheim could prove to be a greater challenge, particularly with the pitching matchups on tap for the three-game set.
With the pitching leaning in Houston’s favor thanks to—arguably—the best rotation in baseball, the Angels—to compete with the Astros—will need to lean on their offense.
Los Angeles has out-hit, out-homered and outscored Houston to this point in the season. With a team .772 OPS and 56 long balls, the Astros are putting runs on the board in bunches.
The leadoff spot remains an issue, but they’ve overcome that so far as Mike Trout remains the best player in baseball. He’s sporting a .317/.453/.655 slash line, well ahead of the ever coveted, .300/.400/.500.
And while Trout was without much support in the past, he’s got Justin Upton heating up, Shohei Ohtani taking American baseball by storm and Andrelton Simmons proving last year’s offensive improvements were not flukes, but just steps in the right direction. All in all, this team can hit homers and score at any point.
Houston’s offense hasn’t been as dynamic as it was a year ago, but the names are mostly the same and this is a unit that lead the sport in scoring.
Last year, everyone was hitting in Houston. Here in 2018, there are few weak spots. Marwin Gonzalez was key for the team and he’s batting only .233 so far with three homers, though he does have 23 RBIs.
Gonzalez, Jake Marisnick and Derek Fisher are all having a hard time finding their way at the plate, leaving one outfield a question most nights with George Springer and Josh Reddick holding down the other two spots. Evan Gattis has also been bad as his OPS sits below .600. Add in no pop so far from Jose Altuve and the offense has been far from the dominant force it was in 2017.
Still, despite the steps backward, this offense still includes the reigning MVP who is still batting .315. It also has Carlos Correa with a .295/.380/.511 slash line and Springer, Brian McCann and Alex Bregman all hitting well above average, too.
Probable Pitchers
The first game of the series features—arguably—the most beatable pitcher slated to start for the Astros in Lance McCullers Jr. Of course, it’s also the worst of the bunch for the Angeles who are set to start Andrew Heaney.
McCullers’ 3.72 ERA is the highest in the Astros rotation, but his 3.17 FIP ranks third while his 5-1 record is second only to Charlie Morton.
Not as dominant as the likes Morton or the next two starts in this series, Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, McCullers is still an excellent pitcher and a former All-Star at the age of 24. He keeps his team in the game and gives himself a chance to get the win.
His breaking ball is filthy when on and he can very well be just as nasty as anyone else in the rotation when he’s on. It’s just a matter of making sure that’s the case. Since allowing eight runs in 3.2 innings in his third start of the year, he’s been just that, locked in.
Like McCullers, Heaney has the worst ERA in his rotation, but his is a full run worse at 4.78. He’s made only five starts and the last three have been better than the first two. In the last three, he’s allowed just five runs—four earned—over 17 innings of work. In that time, he’s struck out 16, walked five and allowed 15 hits.
Given the recent run of success, there is reason for optimism in Game 1 for the Angels, particularly given Heaney has allowed just one run in 11 career innings against Houston.
Moving on to Game 2, we have an interesting matchup between the resurgent Gerrit Cole and the promising rookie Jaime Barria.
Barria has made four starts, going 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA, He’s struck out just 13 in 18.1 innings, but has also limited hard contact with one homer allowed and a low hit per nine innings ratio. A depressed BABIP and 3.91 FIP suggest a regression is on the way, but there’s no denying that Barria has thrown the ball well so far.
The young righty just threw 5.1 scoreless innings at Coors Field in his last start, showing poise even in a difficult matchup. On the other hand, Cole’s poise this season has been unparalleled.
A former Cy Young contender a few years ago, Cole hasn’t been the same pitcher the last few years, but now he’s seemingly better.
Working with a different philosophy that puts added emphasis on spin rate and the breaking ball, Cole has blossomed into a true ace on a staff with several other aces.
The right-hander is tops in the league in strikeouts and second in ERA. Overall, Cole is 4-1 with a 1.43 ERA and 0.741 WHIP in 56.2 innings. He’s striking out 13.7 per nine innings, walking less than two a game and has allowed just three homers. Based on the peripherals, the early success appears sustainable.
Cole enters play having allowed one run in 15 innings here in May and hasn’t allowed more than a single run in five of his eight starts.
After Cole, the series doesn’t get much easier for the Angels. While Cole ranked second in the AL in ERA, Wednesday night’s starter is first as Justin Verlander takes the hill.
Verlander is 4-2 with a 1.21 ERA and 0.721 WHIP. He’s notched a strikeout to walk ratio of nearly six and continues to pitch brilliantly. His stuff has diminished from his younger days, but his execution is as good as it has ever been. Against the Angels earlier this year, he recorded a win, allowing just two runs in seven innings.
In attempt to outduel Verlander, the Angels have their own ace on the mound in Garrett Richards.
Not nearly the dominant pitcher as Verlander, Richards’ health is typically more of a question than his skill. The righty is healthy for now and is 4-1 heading into the game. That said, he’s managed to put up that record despite a 4.08 ERA and 1.311 WHIP. Those numbers aren’t bad, but certainly don’t come close to Verlander’s.
Richards hasn’t faced Houston yet this season, but in his career, he’s a very respectable 5-4 with a 3.28 ERA.
Live Betting
When it comes to the bullpens and the ability of these two teams late, the Astros also hold the upper hand per the stats.
Houston has a 3.08 bullpen ERA, ranked fifth in the sport compared to the Angels’ much more pedestrian 3.68 mark.
Overall, these are still two strong, although not overly dominant bullpens. The depth in Houston is nice as they have many starter-quality arms in relief thanks to the depth in the rotation. That rotational depth also relieves the stress on the arms in the pen. Houston’s pen has thrown just 105.1 innings, the second fewest in the Majors. The Angels have thrown the second most at 166.1.
While it’s still too early in the season to expect the extensive workload to negatively impact performance of some of the Angels’ arms, it is important to note the difference in innings total to highlight the Angels are much more likely to have to use the weaker arms in the middle innings than the Astros and that’s big.
With heavier usage early in the series, the Angels could also be without a few key arms late in the series which is also a hinderance.
Overall, if any game this series is close, late, the pens could push the edge to the Astros even though they’re on the road. Of course, the door could also be left open for the Angels if A.J. Hinch stays with Ken Giles in a key spot. Still not completely right, Giles—along with Joe Smith—are the weak spots in the pen.
MLB Pick
On the mound, the Astros have the advantage in all three games as they look to expand their divisional lead. Count on Houston to take two of three in the series as Los Angeles should be able to scratch across at least one win at home despite a lackluster home record.
Look for the Astros’ starters to outpitching the Angels throughout the series, but don’t be surprised if Giles blows a game for Houston. The Angels have had their share of late game heroics already in their surprisingly strong start. They, of course, also have the offense to make it happen, sitting near the top of the league in homers and team OPS.
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