A World Series rematch series between the Houston Astros and the Los Angeles Dodgers kicks off on Friday night with the Astros sending Justin Verlander to the hill against the Dodgers’ likely starter, Alex Wood. The Astros were victorious in a hard fought seven-game series last time these teams met. Things are a bit different this time around with the likes of Manny Machado, Brian Dozier and Robert Osuna involved in the showdown.
First pitch of the game between the Astros and Dodgers is scheduled for Friday, August 3, 2018, at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. The matchup will be televised locally.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
The Dodgers have played exceptional baseball since June going 34-19 in the last two months and are rounding back into form after some struggles earlier in the week.
Los Angeles is a better road team, but are still over .500 at home. They’re 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
On the other side, Houston has been a killer road team with a .685 road winning percentage, but is 8-10 overall in their last 18 games.
Statistically, the Astros have scored a few more runs than the Dodgers this year and have a slightly better OBP, but the minimal difference can largely be traced back to the use of the DH either team will have a DH in the game on Friday, leaving Evan Gattis and his .808 OPS and 21 home runs on the bench.
When you break down the offensive approaches for each team, it’s interesting that the Dodgers have hit more homers than the Astros, though Houston has the better contact rate and average.
On the mound, the Dodgers and Astros ranked second and first, respectively, in team ERA. The Astros’ are generally known for their rotation rather than their bullpen, but the Houston bullpen has the third best ERA in the game at 3.16, the Dodgers rank No.11 at 3.71.
Of course, the Dodgers have the better closer. Kenley Jansen is as good as it gets, but the set up options to get to him, even with John Axford added to the mix, are less than the set up arms in Houston.
The Astros have gotten a relief ace in Collin McHugh since he was bumped from the rotation. He’s got a 1.03 ERA in 52.2 innings while Hector Rondon has done well enough as the closer since taking over for Ken Giles. The question is, however: how will things work now that Roberto Osuna is on the roster?
As for the Dodgers, the bullpen ERA isn’t as good as the Astros, but the pen is still solid and will get the job done more often than not.
Probable Pitchers
Justin Verlander tossed the second and sixth game of the World Series in 2017. That was the last time he faced the Dodgers.
In those two games, Verlander combined to go 12 innings, allowing five runs. The two teams, however, split those two games with Verlander and the Astros winning Game 2 while the Dodgers took Game 6 to force the series to go the distance.
Verlander has been a lights out pitcher since joining the Astros. He’s gone 15-6 with a 2.02 ERA since last September and is 10-6 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.888 WHIP in 23 starts in 2018. In those 23 starts, he’s thrown more than his share of innings with 148.2 innings of work in which time he’s walked just 27 batter compared to 190 strikeouts, leading to an impressive 7.04 strikeout to walk ratio.
Those numbers are phenomenal though his ERA has jumped from 1.60 on June 24. Most of that ERA jump is a result of a couple rough outings, but he seems to be back on track. In his last two starts, Verlander has allowed just two runs and struck out 18 in 11 innings of work.
In his regular season career against the Dodgers, Verlander has made just two starts and is 2-0. He’s allowed six runs in 14 innings in those two starts, but has allowed only seven hits and three walks in that time, giving him a 0.714 WHIP in that small sample size.
Verlander will be a tough test for the Dodgers, particularly with a mid-rotation arm in Alex Wood tasked with matching up with him pitch-by-pitch.
Wood has had a good year though his numbers are dwarfed by Verlander’s numbers. He’s 7-5 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in 117.1 innings spread over 21 starts. His innings pitched and number of starts led the Dodger though his 107 ERA+ is last amongst the six pitchers who’ve made at least 12 starts.
The Dodgers are 6-2 in the last eight games that Wood on the mound and he’s been rather consistent in those eight starts. In fact, he’s allowed three or fewer runs in nine straight games and has six quality starts in his last seven games with the one exception being his last start where he went 5.2 scoreless against the Braves.
Verlander is the bigger name in this matchup and has the better numbers and stuff, but Wood is a quality big league arm that’s thrown very well of late.
Live Betting
The Dodgers just got Justin Turner back off the DL. We saw the spark he can provided when he came off the DL the first time this year.
Manny Machado can now slide back over to shortstop and join fellow newly acquired middle infielder Brian Dozier in the double-play duo. Given the infield is locked up now with Max Muncy at first base, Cody Bellinger goes back to the outfield where he’s a good defender. He’s also now raking at the dish. Of course, Dave Roberts has plenty of options to move players around, too, allowing him to provide his players the best matchups for them to succeed. Chris Taylor, along with Muncy, has one of the best WAR on the team and he can move around the infield and outfield for the best matchups.
While matchups will be big going forward, there aren’t too many players with much success against Verlander though Machado—who will be in the lineup—does have a homer, double and triple against him, going 7-for-27.
The Dodgers’ lineup is now stacked and better than it was earlier in the year. That’s especially true if guys like Taylor, Muncy, Joc Pederson and Yasiel Puig continue to rake. The depth on the bench to pinch hit later in the game is also much better.
The Astros, on the other hand, are combating the loss of both Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. George Springer is dealing with a shoulder issue of his own though he’ll likely play. Without the game’s best middle infield, Marwin Gonzalez slides in to one spot, but there is still a hole and a weaker bench to boot.
MLB Pick
These are two big offenses and two quality starters going head-to-head. There’s a reason these were the two World Series teams last year and they’re both push towards a return in 2018 which should lead to a fun weekend series and a great game on Friday.
Look for the Dodgers to take advantage of Wood dealing of late and home field advantage to ride the wave to a win.
While Verlander will go six or so quality innings for the Astros, the Houston bullpen will be interesting to watch, particularly with Osuna joining the squad. Will he be a distraction in his first couple games with the Astros? Will he be rusty? Given the chance, one would have to assume A.J. Hinch would want to get him in a game as quickly as possible as to not drag out the issue. That could play a role.
Look for Verlander to pitch well, but the deep Dodger lineup to pick up a couple runs against him. They were able to score some against him last October after all. Meanwhile, look for Wood to benefit from a Houston lineup that has its middle infield on the DL.
Behind Wood, the Dodgers’ bullpen is good enough to bridge the gap to Kenley Jansen to slam the door shut. This will be a close, lower scoring game, but give the edge to the home team.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 4, Astros 3
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
