The Houston Astros currently look like the best team in the American League, but they hit the road for this one, taking on the Minnesota Twins in the third game of the four-game series on Wednesday night. The Twins have had a strong start to the season and are looking like real competitors in the AL Central. Can Minnesota take advantage of home field advantage to grab the win against the Astros? Or will Houston cause trouble for the Twins as the calendar flips to May?
First pitch for the game between the Astros and Twins is scheduled for Wednesday, May 1, 2019, at 8:10 p.m. ET at Target Field. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
Depending on how to you judge it, these are the two best offenses in baseball right now. Neither lead the way in runs scored, but the Twins are first and Astros second in team OPS. The timing of the hits haven’t lined up to maximize the offensive production, but these two teams are still scoring enough to win more often than not.
For the Twins, the lineup has an above average bat in every spot save for Marwin Gonzalez who has a bigger track record of success than most. He’ll hit and is dangerous despite the early season struggles.
Nelson Cruz has been a huge add in the middle of the order, adding protection for Eddie Rosario who has been amazing with 11 home runs and a .970 OPS. Jorge Polanco has a .341/.396/.637 slash line, showing good power with a blend of doubles, triples and homers along with some great contact rates.
As for the Astros, they’re just as deep. A few years ago, this team led the league in runs. They fell back a bit last year, but were still amongst the best.
The team added Michael Brantley to the middle of the order to break up the right handed bats. He’s an excellent at bat like most of the lineup, giving opposing pitchers’ fits, even when they get out.
Some of what suppressed the Houston offense last year was injuries to key players like Carlos Correa. Correa is healthy now and raking with a .893 OPS and six homers. He’s third on the team in dingers behind Jose Altuve with nine and George Springer with eight.
There are seven players with a 130 OPS+ or better, including four over 140. Altuve’s a former MVP who is mashing and Bregman is arguably the best player on the team now.
Probable Pitchers
The pitching matchup features a pair of pitchers who were relegated to the bullpen last year—at least at times.
Collin McHugh takes the mound for the Astros while Martin Perez is lined up to get the nod for the Twinkies.
McHugh’s push to the pen last year was more about the depth of the rotation than anything else. He thrived in the pen with a 1.99 ERA, but was put back in the rotation this year given the departures of a 60-percent of the rotation.
Over his career, the right-hander has been a solid mid-rotation arm. In eight years of big league time, he’s got a 3.91 ERA, equating to a 102 ERA+. In his career against the Twins, McHugh has made seven appearances, including five starts. In that time, he’s worked to a 3-1 record and 2.86 ERA in 34.2 innings of work.
Of the current Twins, Nelson Cruz has the most career at bats against him and has a .231 career average and .259 career OBP. He does have a couple homers.
This year, McHugh has looked good save for one terrible start. Overall, he has a 3-2 record and 4.78 ERA, but the ERA is heavily inflated thanks to a 10-run, nine earned, outing lasting just 3.1 innings against the Rangers. In his last start, he bounced back a bit with just three runs allowed in 5.2 innings though all three came on solo homers.
Still, in five of his six outings, he’s allowed three or fewer runs. He’s got a 1.063 WHIP in 32 innings of work and has done well racking up the strikeouts as well.
As for Martin, he was bad last year with a 6.22 ERA split between the rotation and bullpen. He’s also got a 4.63 career ERA with a 97 ERA+.
This year, he’s made six appearances, but just three starts, in that time he’s gone 3-0 with a 4.44 ERA in 26.1 innings. He’s walked 12 as command is his big issue. Houston has the bats to take advantage of that.
In his three starts, Perez has pitched well, but he’s also faced the Blue Jays and Orioles, twice. Houston is his first real test out of the rotation. He’s got a solid history against Houston, making 11 starts against them with a 6-4 record, a 3.00 ERA and 1.292 WHIP in 72 innings of work.
Live Betting
The Astros took four of six meetings against the Twins last year, but this is not the same Twins’ team. The offense is much better. The back end of the pen is also better.
Houston’s bullpen had the best ERA in baseball last year at 3.03 and now ranks first in the AL this year at 3.18.
The pen got a bump at the deadline last year with the additions of Ryan Pressly and Roberto Osuna. Those two have been nearly unhittable in the early going of 2019, allowing just one run and seven combined hits in 23.2 innings.
Osuna has a 0.243 WHIP and seven saves while Pressly has a 0.353 WHIP. Osuna is the one that gave up the single run.
Leading to those two in the back end is a nice crop of set up and middle relief options including a versatile hurler in Chris Devenski, a strong southpaw in Will Harris and the team’s main closer for the first half of last year in Hector Rondon. That’s a lot of very good options at A.J. Hinch’s disposal.
Back to the Twins, Blake Parker has stepped up in the ninth inning. The former Angel—albeit in limited chances—has been sharp. He collected his fifth save on Sunday.
Leading up to him the Twins have gotten some good performances from Taylor Rogers and Trevor Hildenberger, amongst others. Their crop of relievers are a bit less proven, however.
MLB Pick
Houston is the deeper team. Both these teams can put runs on the board with dangerous bats up and down the lineup, but the Astros’ pitching is better equipped to get the key outs needed to win.
Look for Martin to struggle, giving up several runs against the hard hitting Astros and getting knocked out of the game early. The Twins’ have a strong bullpen for holding leads, but look for them to allow a few more runs as they fail to keep Houston at bay.
As for McHugh, his terrible start against Texas is a concern, but he seemed to move past that last time out. Look for him to get into the sixth and give up three runs much like he has in five of his six starts this year.
From there, the Houston bullpen is plenty deep enough slam the door, giving the ball to the likes of Harris, Devenski, and Rondon before getting to the deadly tandem of Pressly and Osuna.
Take the visiting Astros to get the win at BookMaker.eu.
MLB Odds: Astros 8, Twins 4
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