The New York Yankees and Houston Astros wrap up a three-game series on Wednesday in what is a rematch of a May 2 win for the Yankees. This time, the game will be played in New York, giving the Bronx Bombers an extra edge. Luis Severino and Dallas Keuchel match up on the mound nearly a month after Severino’s first career complete game ended in a shutout of the Astros. Don’t look for Severino to be quite as masterful this time around, but can he do enough to capture another win—this time at home—opposite an establish pitcher like Keuchel?
First pitch for the game between the Astros and Yankees is scheduled for Wednesday, May 30, 2018, at 6:35 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Astros won the first game of the three-game set over the Yankees behind another dominant pitching performance by Justin Verlander.
The win snapped a brief two-game losing streak against the Indians. Over their last 12 games, the Astros are 9-3. On the other side, the Yankees have lost four of their last six games. Despite the recent struggles, they’re still 24-8 in their last 32 games.
Overall, the Yankees and Astros represent two of the top three teams in baseball by almost any measure. Along with Boston, New York and Astros stand well ahead of the rest of the crop of teams right now. Interestingly, the Astros and Yankees have gotten there two vastly different ways.
For New York, it’s all about the offense. The Yankees are first in baseball in runs scored, outscoring the Red Sox and Astros who rank second and third. New York has out homered Houston by 22 longballs and outscored them by 17 runs despite four fewer games. Houston has the better average, but New York surpasses the Astros in OBP and slugging with a OPS of .806 as a team, well above a Houston team that ranks just sixth in baseball in OPS.
When you shift over to pitching, however, Houston takes the lead, primarily due to its elite starting rotation.
As a team, the Astros have a 2.61 team ERA. The next best team—Arizona—has a 3.33 ERA. For Houston, when you have five No.1 starters, it’s easy to keep the ERA down. New York, by comparison ranks No.12 at 3.87.
Of course, when it comes to comparing starting pitching for a single game, it comes down to who is on the hill on that day. More on that later.
Another key factor is the bullpen. The Yankees and Astros are much closer in bullpen ERA than overall ERA as the Astros’ biggest strength is in the rotation.
Still, Houston outpitches New York out of the pen, too. The Yankees have the better options in the last couple innings—provided they have the lead—thanks to Chad Greene and Aroldis Chapman, but the Astros’ bullpen is much deeper. With legitimate starters like Brad Peacock and Colin McHugh pitching in relief, the pen is loaded. That’s why the team has a 2.96 bullpen ERA, ranking first in the AL. New York is third at 3.48.
Probable Pitchers
Keuchel produced a quality start against the Yankees back at the beginning of the month, holding the Bronx Bombers to three runs on six hits in seven innings. That, of course, was back in Houston where Keuchel has traditionally found much more success than on the road.
In fact, the Houston southpaw’s career home ERA is more than a full run lower than his road ERA. Most pitchers are better at home, but the splits are a big larger for Keuchel than most.
Despite those splits, Keuchel is still an established arm at home or away. He’s a former Cy Young Award winner and has made two All-Star teams and won three Gold Gloves. His defense helps him and could be a differentiator, particularly in a tight matchup.
Overall, the lefty is 3-6 with a 3.39 ERA in 69 innings. He’s pitching to a 1.174 WHIP and has a 4.05 FIP. His FIP is elevated over his ERA largely due to his depressed strikeout rate of 6.9 per nine innings—below his career average—and his inflated home run rate. He’s allowed nine long balls in 11 games. The Yankees hit two bombs off him back on May 2.
As for Severino, the young right-hander pitched in the same game as Keuchel on May 2 and outdueled the former Cy Young Award winner, tossing his first career shutout, allowing just two hits and a walk through nine innings. He struck out 10 in the effort.
Severino has been pitching excellent baseball of late, going 5-0 with a 1.87 ERA in his last eight games. On the season, he’s 7-1 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 71 innings. His 2.26 FIP and 4.05 strikeout to walk ratio help support the ERA.
The right-hander has done an amazing job of keeping the ball in the ballpark despite pitching in a hitter friendly park. He’s allowed only three homers and 51 hits this season as opponents hold a very low batting average and even lower ISO against him.
Starting last year, Severino really turned his career around and, save a couple struggles here and there, has been one of the game’s most dependable arm since the start of 2017.
In his career against the Astros, he’s 1-1 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in 18.2 innings. Most of the runs allowed, however, came against a different Severino. After all, he had allowed nine runs in 9.2 innings against Houston coming into the year.
Live Betting
Keuchel has dominated the Yankees in seven career games, pitching to a 1.74 ERA with a 0.813 WHIP in 51.2 innings. That includes a 3-1 record and 1.61 ERA in four starts at Yankee Stadium. That, of course, doesn’t include a solid showing in the ALCS last year where he struck out 18 Yankees in 11.2 innings, allowing four runs.
While Keuchel’s overall numbers against the Yankees are encouraging, there is one Yankee hitter whose got good career numbers against him: Giancarlo Stanton.
Stanton is 3-for-8 with two homers and four RBIs in his career against Keuchel. Gleyber Torres was one of the hitters to snag a hit off him when he faced New York earlier this month, too.
That’s worth noting just because of how hot Torres is overall. The rookie second baseman is only 30 games into his career, but is already a 1.7 WAR player, hitting .320 with a 1.004 OPS. He’s hit nine homers and driven in 24.
He’s torn up lefties like Keuchel with two homers and 10 hits in 29 at bats against southpaws in the Majors. Between Torres and Stanton, there’s enough different from the New York teams Keuchel has dominated in the past.
MLB Pick
This is a good pitching matchup, but we saw Severino outduel Keuchel in Houston. While Severino cannot be expected to pitch another complete game, or even shutout a strong Astros lineup through fewer innings, he’s been on fire and will undoubtedly pitch another good game. Meanwhile, Keuchel gets the start at Yankee Stadium. He was good—but not great—against the Yankees at home where he’s always been a better starter compared to his career on the road.
Count on Severino to go six or seven strong before handing the ball—and lead—over to a stacked Yankee bullpen with Green and Chapman ready to close the game out.
Meanwhile, look for the Yankees’ powerful right-handed bats to get a dinger or two off Keuchel to hand their young ace the lead. Houston’s offense is too good to be held scoreless again, but don’t look for them to plate more than a few in the this matchup.
MLB Odds: Yankees 5, Astros 3
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