This week brings an important three-game series between the Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners will host the Astros in the best of three with a need to win the series to help put an end to a troublesome slide that’s seen them regress, losing ground in both the AL West race—falling further back of Houston—and in the second Wild Card spot where their hefty advantage has all but disappeared. In the middle game of this series, the Mariners will hope Mike Leake can continue to pitch well as he’s matched up against Charlie Morton.
First pitch for the game between Astros at Mariners is scheduled for Tuesday, July 31, 2018, at 10:10 p.m. ET at Safeco Field. The matchup will be shown on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
Heading into Sunday there was a 186-run differential between the Astros and Mariners on the year as Houston holds the best run differential in baseball at +186 while Seattle’s -6 run differential is the worst amongst teams still in contention—save the Giants if they can still be considered a contending team.
The Mariners sit only a handful of games behind the Astros but have been able to get in this position though smoke and mirrors, dominating the close game. Having the kind of winning percentage, the Mariners enjoy along with their dismal run differential is hard to maintain. Regression for Seattle seems likely and we’ve already seen some of that regression of late.
The team was 24-games over-.500 on July 3, but since Independence Day, the Mariners have lost 12 of 18 games and have fallen the furthest back of the division as they’ve been all year. Meanwhile, the A’s in Oakland have closed the gap for the second Wild Card spot. The Mariners are reeling and need to stop their slide.
As for Houston, the Astros 31-17 over the last two months and while they’re just 6-8 in their last 14 games, they’re still playing much better—and more consistent—baseball.
The Astros have scored many more runs than Seattle with a much better OPS and have had more opportunities to score, too, given a .332 OBP compared to a .317 mark for Seattle.
Of course, on the mound, the Astros as the far superior team. Even though Houston has some questions in the latter innings of the bullpen—mostly as they get ready for October—they’ve got a rotation of No.1 and No.2 starters.
Speaking of the rotation, let’s look at the projected pitching matchup for Tuesday’s game.
Probable Pitchers
Typically, almost regardless of matchup, the Astros hold the advantage in the pitching matchup going into the game. That’s what happens when you have one of the deepest—and healthiest—rotations in the game. For Tuesday’s matchup, Charlie Morton take the hill for the Astros.
The veteran right-hander earned his first All-Star Game appearance this year and has had a great year for Houston as a key part of a rotation that continually gets rave reviews.
On the year, Morton is 11-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.158 WHIP. He’s pitched to a 3.45 FIP so it’s been more than just luck for the 34-year old. He’s got a very low batting average against and while the defense has helped a bit with that, he’s inducing primarily weak contact and getting his fair share of outs on swings and misses, too. He’s got 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings over his 118.1 innings of work.
In 20 games started, Morton has pitched in 12 wins and eight losses. That’s a solid ratio, but three of those eight losses have come in his last four starts.
Morton is coming off a great outing in Coors Field where he held the Rockies to one run on four hits in six innings, but prior to that, he had back to back rough starts with eight runs allowed over a combined 10 innings. That, however, did seem like a fluke as he had three straight quality starts before that.
While Morton can give up some runs here and there, he’s been a remarkably consistent arm for the Astros for the bulk of the season.
On the other side of this matchup, Mike Leake is another veteran righty and a bit of a journeyman at this point, much in the same position as Morton found himself a couple years ago.
The righty was essentially banished from the Cardinals last year but has been a useful piece in the rotation for the Mariners.
Leake did struggle against Houston in his only start against them this year, allowing five runs on seven hits in six frames in what ended up being a 7-1 loss for Seattle. He also worked through a bit of a rough patch not too long ago but has come out on the other end of that, having thrown back-to-back solid games, allowing three earned over 12.1 innings in those two contests.
On the year, his numbers don’t match up to Morton, but they’re solid. He’s 8-6 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.297 WHIP. He’s not allowing too many walks and forcing the opposition to put the ball in play.
Leake needs the defense behind him to perform, too. He’s only striking out 5.4 per nine innings, half as many as Morton meaning even with a low BABIP against him, Leake is still allowing more hits as more balls find holes, leaving Seattle a bit more exposed.
Live Betting
The Astros have already picked up Martin Maldonado and Ryan Pressly in deadline deals to help fortify the catching position and the bullpen.
Houston’s biggest issue going into October is the back end of the bullpen and while Pressly’s not a closer, he’s is one of the game’s most underrated relievers.
His debut with the Astros didn’t go according to plan, but he came over from Minnesota after notching 69 strikeouts in 47.2 innings and give the Astros another quality arm in relief to go along with Brad Peacock, Chris Devenksi, Collin McHugh, Tony Sipp and Hector Rondon, amongst others.
For now, Rondon is getting the save chances with Ken Giles in the minors. Rondon has closed before and has pitched well this year, but he’s still a question down the stretch.
As for the Maldonado acquisition, he helps fortify the position with Brian McCann still on the DL. Max Stassi has done well playing mostly full time, but he can be a little over exposed with too much playing time. Maldanado also provides a gun behind the dish, helping to minimize the impact of guys like Jean Segura and Dee Gordon for the Mariners.
Speaking of those two, the Mariners need them to set the table for the big boys like Nelson Cruz and Mitch Haniger in the middle of the order.
Seattle’s been good at getting the big hit and timely hitting has been important, but that’s seemingly gone away begging the question: is timely hitting really a skill or more a consequence of luck? Either way, that skill—or luck—has eroded a bit lately.
MLB Pick
Based on the numbers, these two teams should be much further apart in the standings, but Seattle sometimes finds a way to win. Don’t look for that to happen in this game
The Mariners have been slumping lately as the magic has seemingly worn off. They don’t have the offense or the pitching—at least not in this matchup—to beat Houston without a bit too much luck than can be expected.
Look for Morton to throw six quality innings before turning the ball over to a deep Houston bullpen. While the closer’s spot is still a bit of a question for Houston, don’t look for this game to be quite close enough for that to truly matter.
On the other side, Houston’s a good team at getting on base. Look for the Astros to find a few holes early against Leake and keep putting the ball in play until good things happen in the middle innings where they’ll be able to put a few runs on the board and grab the lead.
MLB Odds: Astros 6, Mariners 3
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