The battle for Lone Star State continues Saturday with a nationally broadcast showdown between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers in the third game of a four-game series. It’s a bit of a David versus Goliath matchup with the Astros playing the part of the Giant. It’ll be up to the Rangers to get the surprise win to keep the comparison alive. That, however, seems like a long shot with Charlie Morton pitching for the Astros and a struggling Mike Minor toeing the rubber for the Rangers.
First pitch for the game between the Astros and Rangers is scheduled for Saturday, June 9, 2018, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The matchup will be shown on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
We saw Houston take an early lead in Game 1, but Texas threatened offensively against the Houston bullpen. It’s the bullpen that’s been the Achilles Heel for the Astros.
Houston’s just finished a difficult stretch of games against the Indians, Yankees, Red Sox and Mariners, all playoff contenders. In those 13 games, the defending World Series champions failed to send a message. Instead, they went 6-7. That was enough to fall behind Seattle in the AL West.
A series against a team like Texas should be easy pickings for Houston, but this series could also prove to be a letdown series for the Astros who may find themselves playing down to the competition. That’ll be worth keeping an eye on heading into Saturday’s Game 3.
The Rangers come into this series have won five of their last eight, but are still 10-games under-.500 as a team. They’re just not very consistent. Like the Astros, the bullpen hasn’t been good, but unlike the Astros neither has the rotation, the offense or the defense.
Based on that, the Astros should have the clear upper hand, but with the bullpen woes, this game—and the series—could get interesting in the later innings. Ken Giles, Will Harris and Joe Smith have been bad. Brad Peacock, Chris Devenski, Hector Rondon and Collin McHugh have been interesting options which is at least something.
In Texas there are some power arms, but fuys like Jake Diekman, Matt Bush a and even Jose Leclerc are walking too many people. The Houston offense will make you play for free passes.
Probable Pitchers
Charlie Morton gets the start after his first loss of the season. He’s now 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA after allowing six runs in 5.1 innings against the Red Sox. Boston is a tough matchup, but it’s the first sign of vulnerability we’ve seen from Morton this year. It’s a concern, but it’s also just one start.
In all, Morton has made 12 starts this season and recorded an official quality start in nine of those outings. He’s a newly made strikeout pitcher with 92 punch outs in 73 innings. He can get the swing and miss when needed.
The veteran right-hander suddenly turned the corner upon joining the Astros last year and has been at a new level this year. A regression from him seems likely given the back of his baseball card, but he is pitching differently. Some of his improvement should stick, but as Boston showed in his last start, he’s not invincible. It’s just a question of whether the Rangers’ offense is enough to stick it to him.
Texas has a lot of players with holes in their swings and Morton is the type of wily veteran to exploit those holes.
Statistically, Morton certainly has the advantage over the Rangers’ Mike Minor. One of several pitching gambles taken by Texas in the offseason, the southpaw had a bounce back season last year in a relief role. The Rangers, however, wanted to turn him back into a starter now that he showed he was healthy.
Minor was much more effective in relief as per his 5.76 ERA through 11 starts and his 11 homers allowed. The lefty most recently allowed five runs in five innings to the Mariners, another good hitting AL West lineup. That poor start is just one in a string. In his last five starts, he’s 1-3 with a 7.52 ERA. Perhaps, pitching at home will help. He’s 3-2 with a 4.11 in six home starts in 2018. Those are solid enough numbers, though even they don’t come close to matching up to the stats Morton has been putting up since joining Houston.
Live Betting
The Astros offense may not be as dominant as it was a year ago when Houston led baseball in runs scored, but this is still a good offensive team with a combination of speed, power, contact and on-base. It’s a multi-faceted offense, essentially the direct opposite of the Rangers. We saw the different offensive approaches on display earlier this series.
Texas is in the middle of the pack in runs scored though still some ways behind the Astros. Even so, their offense is very one-dimensional. The team has 77 homers, but is batting .228 as a unit. The team is drawing the occasional walk and hitting the long ball from time-to-time, but not putting the bat on the ball when needed.
The Rangers have too many Joey Gallo-like hitters. Gallo himself was batting .202 heading into the series. He has hit 17 homers, but his OBP is still below .300 while he’s already sat down 87 times on strikes. He’s one of five regulars with an average below .230, but unlike Rougned Odor, he’s providing power.
Meanwhile, Delino Deshields Jr. is the main speed on the team, but a .202 average and .295 OBP doesn’t allow that speed to go to much use.
There are some quality bats in the order including Adrian Beltre, but the return of the 39-year old isn’t enough to turn this into a good lineup. It’s still a boom-or-bust order that’ll end up with some runs on the season, but is very susceptible to good pitching. Morton can be just that.
On the other side of this matchup, the Astros are still waiting for the same production Marwin Gonzalez provided last year. Yuli Gurriel hasn’t been the same hitter either. And, Jose Altuve has seemingly lost his pop.
Still, Altuve is a .332 hitter. George Springer, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman can all out hit most anyone in a Rangers’ uniform, too. Add in the return of Josh Reddick and the lineup gets deeper, though Reddick could sit against the southpaw given his career splits.
MLB Pick
Both Minor and Morton are trying to rebound off tough starts, but for Morton it was a one-game fluke; for Minor, it’s been a bit of a longer struggle.
Look for the Astros’ bats to score a few runs against Minor and knock him out after five innings, leaving the game in the hands of the bullpen. Houston should be able to add on while Morton—who save for his last start as been lights out—bounces back from a rough start to toss his 10th quality start of the season.
With some bullpen issues, the Rangers may be able get the game closer, but should ultimately fall short thanks to an all-or-nothing offense and a significant pitching mismatch.
Bank on the Astros to beat the cellar dwelling Rangers in this game and this series.
MLB Odds: Astros 8, Rangers 4
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