With the rest of the AL Central selling at the deadline, the Cleveland Indians can cruise to the postseason, but they still have to play the games and that includes hosting the middle game of a three-game series against the Los Angeles Angels on Saturday. In the contest, the Indians will throw their ace, Corey Kluber, against the 28-year old Felix Pena who is trying to establish himself at the Major League level for the pitching hungry Angels.
First pitch of the game between the Angels and Indians is scheduled for Saturday, August 4, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field. The matchup will be televised nationally on FS1.
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Odds Analysis
The Angels are just under-.500 based on record, but they’re 11 under since April 17 and have been depleted of late in sending off Ian Kinsler and Martin Maldonado at the deadline. Neither were having great offensive years, but both were very strong defensive players. That may be the biggest impact of their respective departures.
While the Angels shredded themselves of some players, the Indians added on at the deadline to fortify some of their weaker areas. They improved the bullpen, obviously, but a smaller addition of Leonys Martin is worth noting, too.
Martin is having a career year offensively and the Indians will hope that continues in their uniform as the outfield—save for Michael Brantley in left—hasn’t offered much production. Martin is an exceptional fielder and has hit well this year, too.
The Indians add Martin to a team that has a good answer in seemingly every other position including All-Stars Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez on the left-side of the infield.
The tandem of Lindor and Ramirez is one of the top tandems in the game, the players around those two in the order are rather good, too. Brantley is hitting .295 with some pop and a .341 OBP while Jason Kipnis has been a very good hitter the last month. Yonder Alonso and Edwin Encarnacion at first and DH aren’t having the best years, but they’re hitting above average and are giving the team some pop. The depth of the lineup is a big place the Indians outshine the Angels.
While Los Angeles has the best player in the game in Mike Trout, he’s battling an injury and may or may not be available for the game.
In either case, the Angels don’t have the same depth of talent. Like Kipnis for the Indians, Kole Calhoun has poor numbers, but has been much better the last month. He’s a piece around Trout, but otherwise, the team is filling in at second base and catcher, Albert Pujols is homer or best with a .292 OBP, and Andrelton Simmons is hitting .307, but doesn’t hit for much power.
As a team, the Indians have scored the third most runs in baseball, ahead of the Astros. They’re sporting a .774 team OPS and have a better average, OBP and slugging percentage than the Angels who can really only match Cleveland in home runs.
Probable Pitchers
There were a couple less-than Corey Kluber like performances from the two-time Cy Young Award winner over the last month or so, but Kluber looked more like himself in his last start, going 7.1 innings and allowing just one run against the Tigers.
Prior to that, Kluber had allowed at least six runs in three of his previous five starts, including a 1.2 inning stint against the Cardinals in late June.
Pitching through a knee injury, Kluber wasn’t able to get enough power from his legs and his velocity, movement and command all suffered as a result. He still put together a couple good outings in that stretch, but he wasn’t himself.
He looked much better in his last start and the results showed. He’ll look to carry that forward in this start against the Angels.
Provided he really is healthy, he should have a good game. He held the Angels to two runs in seven innings back in April and is 2-2 with a 3.99 career ERA against the Angels in six starts. Of course, those numbers are inflated from what we’d expect from Kluber overall.
The veteran right-hander is 89-54 in his career with a 3.09 ERA and has been even better the last few years. This year, he’s 13-6 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.945 WHIP. His WHIP is always low due to excellent command. He’s tog the league leading walk rate this year at 1.2 per nine innings and although he’s not the strikeout pitcher some in the league are, he leads in strikeout to walk ratio at 7.32 due to a good, though not great strikeout rate and his stellar walk rate.
Really, the biggest weakness to Kluber’s game is his tendency to allow the home run, particularly this year where he’s allowed 20 in 145 innings. His career high allowed is 22 and he looks well on his way to breaking that this year.
While recent results—save for last game—call into question Kluber’s health and his home run rate is a bit elevated, he’s generally a safe bet to pitch well. The same cannot be said for Pena.
Felix Pena had been a good fill-in starter prior to his last start. He went into his last outing with a 3.34 ERA in eight appearances, including seven starts, but came out with a 5.23 ERA. He allowed seven runs on six hits and two walks while recording only a single out, taking his second loss of the year.
He hadn’t allowed more than three runs in any appearance prior to that, but it’ll be interesting to see how the inexperienced hurler bounces back from such a rough outing.
On the year, he’s still got a 3.99 FIP and a good strikeout rate of 9.6 per nine innings, but his walk rate and hit rate have jumped and that could be an issue against a good hitting team like Cleveland.
Live Betting
While the Angels made a few moves to send off offensive pieces, they left their bullpen intact despite some known interest in a few of their hurlers.
If Pena can get through five frames, the Angels won’t be in a bad spot as they’ve gotten pretty good production from their pen.
The Los Angeles bullpen has a 3.87 ERA, more than a run lower than the Cleveland bullpen ERA. Of course, the Indians’ pen is better than that number now with the additions of Brad Hand and Adam Cimber. The Cleveland bullpen has slowly been climbing the rankings after ranking dead last in baseball in bullpen ERA not too long ago. They sit at No.26 now.
Even with Andrew Miller still out, Cleveland has Hand, Cimber and Cody Allen—who is throwing better now—to rely on in relief of Kluber. As long as Kluber is himself, that’s more than enough behind him to get the job done.
While the Angels seem to have better relief depth at the moment, they don’t have the same potential dominance of a Hand or Allen. Still, Blake Parker has pitched extremely well as the fill-in closer while Cam Bedrosian, Jose Alvarez and even the veteran Jim Johnson give Mike Scioscia a number of reliable arms if the game is close in the later innings.
MLB Pick
Ace on the mound, playing at home against a team that threw in the towel and traded away Major League assets at the trade deadline, all that should lead to a rather easy win for the Indians.
While Cleveland may not have the motivation to push hard day in and day out with the postseason all but clinched, they are still looking to position themselves for the best matchups in October and that requires them to win. Given the pitching matchup, superior offense and remade bullpen, they’re in a good position to do just that on Saturday.
Look for Kluber to hold down the Angels, particularly with the health of Trout in question. The Angels don’t have much offensive depth around Trout and even if he plays, he’s only one batter who will only factor into a handful of individual showdowns in the game.
The Angels may be able to scratch across a couple runs against Kluber and add a run or two more against the bullpen, but that won’t be enough to get the win. Look for the Indians to beat up on Pena who is coming off a terrible outing. They’ll get to him early and cruise to an easy win behind some of the better bats in the AL.
MLB Odds: Indians 7, Angels 3
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