ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball this week will take us out to the NL West where the division leading Houston Astros will host the also-ran Los Angeles Angels in the finale of a four-game weekend series. Injuries to the pitching staff took away any chance the Angels had at competing this year and as we embark on the season’s final month, the Angels will have to take solace in the role of spoiler as they shoot for the upset against Gerrit Cole and the Astros on Sunday.
First pitch of the game between the Angels and Astros is scheduled for Sunday, September 2, 2018, at 8:05 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. The matchup will be televised on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
From July 25 through August 18, the Astros were 7-13, falling from five games up in the AL West to a tie for the division lead with the A’s. That was a rough stretch of game for Houston who were dealing with key injuries to Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer.
Losing three stars can decimate any team, but all three are back in the order and along with Alex Bregman make one of the best top of the orders in the sport.
Since August 18, the Astros are 8-2. It’s no coincidence that when these sluggers started coming back the wins started returning, too.
When healthy, Houston’s got a deep lineup. The Astros are fourth in baseball in runs scored, well ahead of the Angels. They have a versatile lineup, too, with Altuve batting .327 with speed; Bregman, Evan Gattis and Springer providing pop; and even the likes Tony Kemp and Tyler White contributing.
White hit the game winner on Wednesday and has a 1.031 OPS in 135 plate appearances. He’s one of 11 players with at least that many plate appearances and an OPS+ of 99 or better.
In Anaheim, Mike Trout has better numbers than anyone on the Astros, but he doesn’t have nearly the support around him.
His 1.085 OPS leads baseball and is a career best for the two-time AL MVP. He has a 196 OPS+ meaning he’s been as effective as two average players combined, but it’s still not enough. Particularly when you consider he’s 2-for-10 in his career against the Astros’ Sunday starter, Gerrit Cole.
With Albert Pujols on the DL for the year, another one bites the dust in L.A., leaving a resurgent Kole Calhoun, Andrelton Simmons and Shohei Ohtani as the only support for Trout. While the Astros are 11 deep with league average or better bats, the Angels are filling out their order with career journeymen like Eric Young Jr.
Probable Pitchers
The Angels haven’t announced their starter for this primetime affair, but the Astros will go with Gerrit Cole.
Los Angeles’ pitching situation is tremulous at best. Andrew Heaney opens the series so he won’t be available. They used Odrisamer Despaigne and then had a bullpen game this past week against the Rockies. They’re scrapping the bottom of the barrel looking for arms.
Jaime Barria and Felix Pena are likely to pitch earlier in the series, leaving Sunday’s game potentially to Despaigne who may get another start out of desperation.
Heaney and Barria are the only good options. Pena has been serviceable for the most part, but Despaigne is just a journeyman that’s already allowed 10 runs in 12 innings. He had 11 appearances, including one start, earlier this year in Miami with lackluster results and wasn’t great in Triple-A New Orleans either.
No matter how you slice it, the pitching situation doesn’t look good for the Angels on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Cole has the most single season strikeouts by an Astro since Nolan Ryan in 1987. That’s elite company.
The 27-year old right-hander has had a great first season in Houston and has reinvented himself for the Astros. He’s back to the ace form he showed in 2015. He’s 12-5 this year with a 2.85 ERA and 1.008 WHIP. He’s got 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings and has a 2.69 FIP. He leads the AL in Ks.
He’s coming off a mediocre start against the A’s, allowing four runs in six innings. He’s slowed down some over the last month with a 4.30 ERA in August, but even that is far superior that what the Angels can offer.
Speaking of the Angels, Cole is 0-1 against them with five runs allowed in 12 innings this year. He took the loss against them at home in April, but he pitched well, going seven innings and allowing only two runs. It’s hard to imagine whoever the Angels throw in this game can pitch well enough to give L.A. the win if Cole pitches a similar game on Sunday.
This year, the Astros are 19-8 when Cole takes the mound for good reason. Even when he doesn’t have his best stuff—as has been the case most of the last month—he keeps the Astros in the game and with Houston’s offense and bullpen that’s all the team needs.
Live Betting
So, the Astros who have 18-more wins than the Angels send an All-Star pitcher to the mound while the Angels likely counter with a replacement-level pitcher. That’s a huge edge for the Astros who also hold the distinct advantage offensively.
The Angels cannot make up any ground defensively or in the bullpen either. The Angels have the fourth fewest errors in baseball, but one of three teams with less is Houston. The Astros also now have Martin Maldonado, one of the elite defensive backstops after L.A. dealt him to Houston at the deadline.
On to the bullpen, the Astro’s pen has the best ERA in baseball at 3.01. The Roberto Osuna story has faded into the background and the troubled right-hander has pitched well since the trade.
Hector Rondon has been a huge surprise in the closer’s role while Collin McHugh has emerged as an elite reliever.
From there, the Astros have depth upon depth upon depth. Ryan Pressly has allowed just six hits and no walks in 12.2 innings since coming over from Minnesota. Tony Sipp has a 1.99 ERA in his 31.2 innings. Brad Peacock has 13.4 Ks per nine innings. The list goes on.
The Angels’ bullpen has been solid this year, too, but it can’t compare to the numbers Houston has put up.
Blake Parker and Cam Bedrosian are great arms and pitching well right now, but L.A. needs to get to them with the lead, or at least the game close, for that to matter. The Angels can hold a lead. They can hang with the best bullpens, but they can’t outpitched Houston’s pen.
MLB Pick
The Astros have Gerrit Cole on the mound, a—mostly—healthy offense, some momentum off a series win over the A’s and are facing an Angels team with nearly two rotations worth of starters on the shelf. As far as matchups go, that’s a lot stacked against Los Angeles.
Look for the Astros to get the win. They’ll contain Trout and Ohtani and do enough on offense against the Angels’ pitching staff to win this one with relative ease.
Count on a quality start—or better—from Cole while the Astros top of the order sets the tone in this game. Look for Houston to jump out to an early lead with a couple runs in the first and from there to add on.
The Astros’ bullpen is strong and deep. They’ll be able to close out the win for Cole.
MLB Odds: Astros 6, Angels 3
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