The Houston Astros will face-off against their biggest competition for the AL West crown in a three-game series beginning Monday, playing host to the Los Angeles Angels who come into the series 9-1 away from home. The Astros are an even better team—at least on paper—than the one that won the World Series last year, but the Angels are quite possibly the most improved team in the AL provided the pitching holds up. Prior to a sweep at the hands of the red-hot Red Sox, the Angels were 13-4 and sitting atop the division. Can they curtain their losing ways and regain ground against the ‘Stros in this series?
The three-game series between the Angels and Astros is scheduled for Monday, August 23, 2018 through Wednesday, April 25, 2018 at Minute Made Park. The first two games will take place beginning at 8:10 p.m. ET with the series finale, a 2:10 p.m. ET start on a get-away day in Houston. All three games will be broadcast locally with Wednesday afternoon’s game on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
The Astros ran away with the division. The Angels did finish second, but they were a well back in the standings and finished the season with a mediocre 80-82 record.
On the year, Houston won 12 of 19 head-to-head meetings though they only outscored Los Angeles by one run total in the 19 games. Houston could win the close games while the Angels took a few blowout victories.
For Los Angeles, last year, the biggest difference between them and Houston was offense. The Angels’ pitching was a big of a question, but they got some surprising performances in the rotation and the bullpen for a team ERA of 4.20, ranking No. 12 in baseball, one spot behind the Astros with a 4.12 team ERA.
At the plate, Houston outscored everyone with 896 runs scored and plated 186 more runs than the Angels, that’s more than a run per game.
So far in the young 2018 season, the Angels offense has been much more prolific, ranking third in baseball in runs scored, well ahead of the Astros.
Of course, in a 20-game sample size, things can be skewed quite a bit, but it’s at least encouraging how well the Angels are hitting.
When given a chance to hit, Shohei Ohtani has proven to be every bit as good as advertised. He’s played just 10 games, but has three homers, 11 RBIs and a .342 average, giving protection to Mike Trout who is having another Mike Trout like start to the year. The game’s best player is leading the league with seven homers and has 14 RBIs and a .286/.398/.597 slash line. Meanwhile, he’s got an almost unfathomable 17:14 strikeout to walk ratio.
On top of those two stars, Justin Upton is off to a strong start, Ian Kinsler has looked good since coming off the DL and both Zack Cozart and Andrelton Simmons have combined excellent defense with an above-average bat.
While Houston’s offense was the best in the game last year and basically the same here in 2018, they’ve gotten off to a slower start. Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa continue to prove themselves elite hitters while Brian McCann and Josh Reddick are off to nice starts, but others like Alex Bregman, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis and Derek Fisher haven’t produced the strong numbers they did in 2017.
Houston still appears to have the better lineup, but right now, the Angels are producing the better results. Simply at the plate, this is a close matchup.
Probable Pitchers
Moving to the mound, the starting pitching matchups for this series haven’t been announced, but Houston’s rotation is deeper than the Angels’.
With Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr. starting over the weekend, the rotation figures to turn back over to Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton and Justin Verlander in the Angels series. The Angels’ starting pitchers are a bit more difficult to figure as the team has a more flexible rotation to accommodate the needs of Ohtani.
Ohtani should be one of the starters in the series provided his blisters have adequately healed. He’s found his way back into the batters’ box since his last start was cut short so the Angels are optimistic he’ll be good to go in the Houston series.
Joining him on the mound starting games in the Astros series could be Tyler Skaggs, Nick Tropeano and/or Andrew Heaney.
The Houston trio is the better group even if Ohtani gives the Angels’ collection of starters more of an intrigue factor.
Cole has been as good as expected—and better—after coming over in the offseason trade from the Pirates. In his first four starts, the young right-hander is 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA. He’s tossed 28 innings and has allowed just 15 hits and six walks in that span. He has allowed three home runs, but with just three earned runs, he’s done a good job keeping guys off base for those blasts.
With a 13.2 strikeout per nine inning ratio, Cole has flat out dominated the opposition while sporting 0.750 WHIP and 2.36 FIP showing that, even advanced metrics demonstrate just how well he’s throwing the ball.
As for the other two arms in this series for the Astros, we have the team’s No.5 starter who in his age 33 season year made major adjustments, developing into a strong starter after years of inconsistencies. Now, Morton seems to have taken his game up another notch, going 3-0 with a 0.72 ERA in his first four starts. He’s allowed just 16 hits and six walks with two runs allowed in 25 innings, not to be outdone by Cole.
Of course, by name alone, those two pales in comparison to the likely Game 3 starter: Justin Verlander. Verlander has yet to lose a regular season game as a member of the Astros and is 3-0 on the year and 8-0 as an Astros. He’s itched to a 1.10 ERA in five starts here in 2018 and has a 1.08 ERA in 10 starts during his time in Houston.
The starters’ numbers on the Angels side of this matchup are far less impressive. Ohtani, for instance, has pitched well, but his 2-1 record and 3.60 ERA in three starts hardly seems impressive by comparison. The main thing for the Japanese phenom, however, will be health. The blisters prevented him from going more than a couple innings last time out, but he’s show the ability to handle big league hitters while on the mound and has looked like a completely different pitcher than the one that struggled through Spring Training. The jury’s still out on Ohtani, given his short track record in the Major Leagues, but early runs are good, just not as good as those for Cole, Morton or Verlander.
The other potential Angel starters in this series are all throwing equally well, save for Heaney’s struggles. Skaggs and Tropeano are both pitching well enough to keep the Angels in the game.
Live Betting
The one weakness to the Astros throughout their postseason run was the team’s bullpen and Houston did little to sure it up in the offseason. The move of Brad Peacock and Collin McHugh to the pen, however, has really boosted the unit while smaller moves for Hector Rondon and Joe Smith look to be steals here in the early going.
Houston’s pen isn’t lights out, but it’s rather deep. Concerns about Ken Giles in the ninth inning are legitimate, but he’s not the only one getting ninth inning assignments. Chris Devenski leads the team in saves—albeit with two—and Peacock also has a save change. In fact, seven different pitchers have been given the chance to finish out a game in Houston.
Typically, closer by committee hasn’t been an effective approach, but right now A.J. Hinch is generally doing a good job of pushing the right buttons as the right time.
Los Angeles’s bullpen, meanwhile, features limited experience outside of Jim Johnson who, at 35-years of age, has pitched well.
Keynan Middleton has grabbed hold of the closer’s role and already has four saves. Blake Wood, Noe Ramirez and Jose Alvearez are all strong set up options to lead to Middleton.
MLB Pick
The Angels have been nearly unbeatable in 10 road games and have hit better in the early going of 2018 than the Astros, but Houston’s lineup is proven over a longer stretch and the rotation gets the clear edge over the Angels’ starting staff.
Los Angeles is a dangerous team. They’ve played well, but are coming into this series with the Astros cold after getting knocked down by the Red Sox.
Look for the Astros to win two of three in this series with the Angels bats getting to one of the Houston starts, but not any more than that.
As for the bullpens, these two squads are fairly well matched though Houston’s options in the later innings may be a bit more extensive as well.
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