Despite the names, the Los Angeles Angels and Los Angeles Dodgers are not exactly crosstown rivals like the Mets and Yankees or Cubs and White Sox. Nevertheless, these two teams do still have a friendly—at least sometimes, friendly—interleague rivalry. Of late, it’s the Dodgers with the edge in that rivalry. The Dodgers will host the Angels over the weekend looking to extend that edge though it was the Angels that took the series when the two teams met down in Anaheim earlier this year. Can the Dodgers return the favor in a best of three over the weekend?
First pitch of the series opener between the Angels and Dodgers is scheduled for Friday, July 13, 2018 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. The series will continue for three games under Sunday with the Saturday’s middle game broadcast nationally on FOX. The rest of the games will be broadcast locally.
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Odds Analysis
Earlier this year, it was the Dodgers that were in a precarious position, getting close to falling out of contention despite plenty of baseball yet to be played.
The Dodgers, however, bounced back and have gone 33-16 since their 16-26 start. Few teams can match that run. There’s no doubt that since mid-May, the Dodgers have been amongst the cream of the crop, at least in the NL.
The Angels, on the other hand, have had a very different situation. The team in Anaheim started the season hot, but faded quite fast. Now the Angels sit a few games behind the Dodgers in record, but well out of contention. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have plenty more than pride to play for right now.
The Dodgers hold the advantage in runs scored and team ERA. They’ve been better offensively and better in the rotation. The bullpen, however, is a bit more balanced. The Angels and Dodgers are separated by two-hundredths of a run in their bullpen ERAs.
It’s been tough for the Dodgers to bridge the gap from the starters to Kenley Jansen in the ninth inning. The pen is part of the reason the Angels took two of three against the Dodgers last weekend. They had a walk off on Friday and it was the pen that took the loss in Sunday’s series finale.
The Angels have pieced together their rotation, but Blake Parker has stepped in seamlessly to the closer role while Justin Anderson, Felix Pena, Cam Bedrosian and Jose Alvarez—despite lacking name recognition—have managed to all give Mike Scioscia solid production more times than not.
Probable Pitchers
The Dodgers have some big names taking the ball in this final series before the All-Star break with Walker Buehler getting the start on Friday ahead of Clayton Kerhsaw on Saturday. Buehler is getting the start in place of Alex Wood who won’t start again until after the break. As a result, while Sunday’s starter is not announced, it figures to be Rich Hill.
As for the Angels, they haven’t announced any starters for the weekend series, but their rotation is currently in shambles. News just broke of a UCL injury for Garrett Richards. He could be sidelined a long time, again. Andrew Heaney is likely to get one of the starters and Felix Pena is a likely candidate for another, but the third starter is up in the air.
Given the Dodgers have three starters to turn to, they get the edge in the rotation in this series almost by default. Though if their three arms are healthy, they have the edge over the Angels regardless of which starters the Angels use.
Buehler will make the start on Friday fresh off the disabled list after his rib injury because of a mid-May comebacker. Buehler has thrown a minor league rehab start and simulated game in preparation for his return.
The young right-hander was the team’s top prospect coming into the year and his work when healthy has backed up the acclaim. The 23-year old is 4-2 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in 52.1 innings. He’s made 10 appearances and eight starts. When on the mound, he’s limited walks, recorded more than a strikeout an inning and kept the ball in the yard, all that leading to a 2.61 FIP.
After Buehler, Kershaw gets the ball. Health has stripped him of this best starter of a generation title, but the southpaw is still one heck of a hurler.
The 30-year old lefty is 3-4 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.043 WHIP. He’s made 12 starts and thrown 69 innings in those 12 starts. Few starters would look at those numbers and be upset, but for Kershaw that represents a down year. Kershaw’s usually an innings eater, but averaging fewer than six innings a start. He’s also posted an ERA lower than his current 2.61 in every year since 2010.
Since his own return from the DL, Kershaw has started to look better in each start and has allowed five runs in 20 innings over four outings. In his last start, he held the Padres scoreless on two-hits and one walk in six frames. He only threw 89 pitches, but that’s the most since coming off the DL. Roberts will give him a longer leash on Saturday.
As for Rich Hill, he’s a five a dive arm. He’s also the weakest part of the Dodgers’ rotation. At 2-4 with a 4.64 ERA, Hill’s been hittable. He’s allowed 11 home runs in 11 starts and is averaging fewer than five innings a start. Hill did go seven last start, but allowed four runs and took the loss. The Dodgers are just 4-7 when he starts.
On to the Angels’ hurlers, Heaney’s had a good year. The lefty is 5-6 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 96 innings. He’s got a shutout this year and got the win against the Dodgers in his last start, going seven innings and allowing three runs. That’s now back-to-back seven inning affairs. He’s allowed five combined runs and struck out 20 in those two games. He’s got four quality starts in his last five games and is the best bet of the active Angels arms to throw a good game.
After him, it’s a question of what to expect for the Angels. Pena’s been good in his limited action, but it’s a small sample size. Of course, he did start a game the Angels eventually won against the Dodgers last weekend, going 5.1 innings and allowing only two runs while striking out eight. That’s a positive, but he’s still a 28-year old journeyman arm.
As for the final starter, that’s up in the air as is the order.
Live Betting
Statistically, it’s clear that the Dodgers are the better team, particularly over the last couple months.
The Dodgers rank fifth in baseball in team ERA. The Angels rank six spots worse, giving up more than a quarter of a run more per game.
At the dish, the Dodgers have plated 30 more runs than the Angels in one fewer game. While the home run totals are close, the team in blue has the better team OBP and much more depth in the order.
Mike Muncy is scorching hot right now. He’s hit nine homers in his last 26 games with a 1.055 OPS and he’s not alone in that success. Enrique Hernandez has seven bombs in that time while Joc Pederson has six and both Matt Kemp and Cody Bellinger have hit five.
All the Dodgers hitters have seemingly gotten hot at once and top-to-bottom, the order is providing not only difficult at bats, but powerful at bats, too.
Second base is the only hole in the Dodgers’ otherwise stacked lineup and that’s not even always an issue if Hernandez or Muncy are at that position. Dave Roberts has versatility in many of his players and can move positions around to get the best matchups at bats any given day.
Even with Yasiel Puig on the DL, the Dodgers still have eight different players with an OPS+ of at least 110 in at least 250 plate appearances. There are also eight current Dodgers with at least 10 home runs, including a team leading 21 from Muncy despite having only 257 plate appearances and 206 at bats. In fact, nearly half of his 56 hits have left the park.
So, while the Dodgers’ offense has depth, the Angels’ offense is centered on one player: Mike Trout.
Trout remains the best player in baseball and his OPS+ of 199 backs that up as he’s produced as well as two average players combined. His .314/.457/.626 slash line is amazing, but the support around him is anything but amazing.
Sure, Kole Calhoun has been better since coming off the DL, but he’s still hitting just .180 after his absolutely horrid start. Andrelton Simmons, Justin Upton and Shohei Ohtani—when he plays—are putting up good at bats, but Ian Kinsler is hitting .213, Albert Pujols has a .286 OBP and Luis Valbuena is leading the team in at bats at third base despite a .615 OPS.
While the Dodgers have eight players with an OPS+ over 110, the Angels have four. In fact, they only have four with an OPS+ above Pujols’ 93.
MLB Pick
While the actual pitching matchups will make a difference, this Angels team is deiminated with injuries and won’t have its best starters going—aside from Heaney. Meanwhile, with Buehler and Kershaw, the Angels will be challenged, even if Hill is an easier opponent.
Look for the team from Anaheim to steal a win in this series much like the Dodgers did when they played just outside of Disneyland. Now that the matchup has moved up the road and into Los Angeles, the Dodgers are in position to strike for revenge.
The Angels team is not as good as the Dodgers and they’re not playing as well—last weekend’s series win notwithstanding.
Look for the Dodgers to win two of three in this series to even up the season series and go into the All-Star break on a positive note.
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