Sometimes it’s not about who you play, but when you play them and for these two teams, the scenarios as it relates to that statement couldn’t be any more different. Over the weekend, the New York Yankees will host the Los Angeles Angels in a best of three set. The Yankees come into play scorching hot and the Angels—after a strong start—are scuffling. Based on recent trends, the Yankees should have the clear upper hand.
The series between the Angels and Yankees opens on Friday, May 25, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium and continues Saturday night and Sunday afternoon. The Friday and Sunday games will be broadcast to those out of the local television markets on MLB Network while Saturday’s game will be covered on FOX.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
Los Angeles had lost six of seven games going into Wednesday and eight of 11, falling from first in the AL West to third in two weeks.
The Angels struggles have been inconsistency on both sides of the ball, but offensively the Angels have scored three or fewer runs nine times in the past 11 games and haven’t scored more than five in any of the games. They are, however, a better road team at 14-5 away from home, making this series in the Bronx a bit interesting.
The Yankees, on the other hand, are rolling. They’ve won 22 of their last 27 games and are 18-7 at home this season.
New York’s been winning on the strength of its offense first and foremost. They’ve outscored, out-homered and out-OPSed baseball on the season, scoring 268 runs, hitting 75 dingers and posting a .810 OPS. By comparison, the Angels have scored 222 runs, hit 62 homers and posted a .737 OPS.
For the Angels, finding offense from someone other than Mike Trout is the key. Trout’s off to another MVP-type season with a 1.057 OPS, 14 homers and a 189 OPS+, but around him the Angels have: a streaky Justin Upton who has just two hits in his last five games, a good hitting shortstop in Andrelton Simmons and a power-laden designated hitter in Shohei Ohtani who will see limited action at the plate despite a .310/.362/.598 slash line as he’s slated to make a start in this series. Beyond those three, the Angels’ lineup is wildly underperforming. Ian Kinsler, Zack Cozart, Albert Pujols and the lot are all providing below league average production while Kole Calhoun has been the worst everyday player in baseball in 2018.
For the Yankees, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge get most of the press and rightfully so, but Gary Sanchez and Didi Gregorius have gotten a lot of big hits, too. Of course, Sanchez is hitting just .230 while Gregorius is still ice cold after his red-hot start. Still, all four represent legitimate threats to hit it out while Gleybar Torres appears to be for real given his .330 average, seven homers and 19 RBIs in 26 games. Really, there’s no bad hitter in this lineup even with Neil Walker and Brett Gardner not hitting up to their career norms.
Probable Pitchers
The series kicks off with a tough pitching matchup for the Angels as Luis Severino takes the bump for the Yankees. Los Angeles will counter with Andrew Heaney.
Severino is the ace of the Yankee staff. In 10 starts this season, he’s 7-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.969 WHIP. He’s already struck out 76 batters in 65 innings of work and is pitching to a miniscule 1.96 FIP thanks to a 4.75 strikeout to walk ratio and just two homers allowed all season.
The 24-year old right-hander also threw his first career shutout earlier this season blanking the Astros of all teams on May 2. Since then, he’s hurled three more quality starts and has recorded a quality start in eight of his 10 outings.
Not only has Severino been able to replicate his break out campaign from 2017, he’s topped it. He was 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA last year and has been even better.
For the Angels to stay in the game on Friday, they’ll need Heaney to shut down a very potent Yankees’ lineup. While Heaney has been pitching well, it’s hard to imagine him going toe-to-toe with Severino and coming out with the better line. He’s pitched to a 1.45 ERA over his last five starts, but he did give up four unearned runs in six innings in his last start.
Overall, Heaney’s 3.35 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in his seven starts is pretty good, but he’s just 2-3 and has allowed twice the number of homers as Severino in less than two-thirds the innings. On the positive, Heaney’s thrown well in his career against the Baby Bombers, but with the way the Yankees are swinging the bats right now, it’s still hard to imagine him maintaining or improving on his 1.50 ERA in two career starts against New York.
As the series progresses, the matchups get a bit more favorable for the Angels as the Yankees have Sonny Gray on tap for Saturday and Masahiro Tanaka in line to make the start on Sunday. The Angels haven’t announced their starters for the final two games, but Shohei Ohtani and Garrett Richards would be in line for the starts if the rotation stays in order.
Ohtani starting on Saturday would be a great storyline. Early in the offseason, many people had Ohtani going to the Yankees, but New York didn’t even make the final list. Instead, the sensation is pitching—and hitting—for the Angels against the Yankees.
It’s been a pretty successful so far on the mound for Ohtani. He’s 4-1 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in 40.1 innings, spanning seven games. He’s been great at limiting base runners and has shown his filthy stuff with 52 strikeouts. While the Yankees do have several thumpers in the order, they are susceptible to the strikeout so look for a lot of swing and miss.
Pitching opposite Ohtani, the Yankees have—arguably—their worst starter in Gray. He hasn’t been the same pitcher since coming over from Oakland last season. The right-hander is 3-3 with a 5.48 ERA and 1.630 WHIP. He’s only struck out 37 batters in 46 innings and has walked 25, giving him a 1.48 strike out to walk ratio.
Gray has pitched better his last couple times out, but is far from a reliable starter. Game 2 pitching matchup favors Los Angeles. Game 3 is a closer.
Tanaka is off to another inconsistent season. He’s 5-2 with an inflated 4.95 ERA despite a 1.101 WHIP. His big issue is the longball and pitching in the bandbox of Yankee Stadium, it’s easy to see why. Tanaka has given up at least three runs in four straight games and has a 5.91 ERA in May. He’s just lucky the Yankee offense is slugging right now. Can they continue the slugging against Richards?
Richards is finally healthy and is 4-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in 51.2 innings. He’s already thrown well over the number of innings he had each of the last two years so he runs the risk of injury or fatigue, but it’s still probably a bit too early in the season for either.
Instead, look for Richards to have a strong performance. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his ten starts and one of his last four. That might be a bit optimistic against the Yankees, but he’s still throwing the ball well.
Live Betting
The pitching should lean this matchup towards the struggling Angels, at least in two of the games, but the later we get in the games, the more the odds lean back in New York’s favor.
The Yankees, without a doubt, have the better bullpen. Los Angeles’s pen has put up respectable numbers though New York has the better bullpen ERA and 38 more strikeouts in 22.1 fewer innings.
Keynan Middleton is now gone, taking away the Angels’ closer who was doing well in the role with a 2.04 ERA despite too many walks.
Now, Blake Parker is getting the save chances which just pushes everyone back an inning and leaves the middle frames that much more exposed.
In New York, Aaron Boone can go to Aroldis Chapman in the ninth and still have Chad Green for big match ups mid-game and Chase Shreve for the tough lefty. That even avoids David Robertson and Dellin Betances in the highest leverage situations.
MLB Pick
The Yankees should take this series, but look for the Angels to steal one of the last two games of the series to avoid getting swept in the Bronx.
Los Angeles is not playing its best baseball right now and has offensive issues outside of a few key guys. The Yankees pitching—particularly the bullpen—can exploit that and keep the Angels from scoring too many runs.
On the other side, the Angels bullpen is shallow and the Yankees bats too strong to expect Los Angeles to hold the New York hitters at bay over the course of a three-game series. There’s a reason the Yankees have been so hot and a cold team like the Angels aren’t one to slow them down, even with the better pitching matchup two of the three games.
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
