Two non-playoff teams will get a nationally televised showing on Tuesday night as the Texas Rangers play host to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the middle game of a three-game series. These division rivals are pulling up the rear in the AL West while the rest of the division push for a spot in October. The Angels and Rangers are now both looking forward to 2019 and beyond as two southpaws get set to face-off with Andrew Heaney and Mike Minor expected to take the ball in this one.
First pitch for the game between the Angels and Rangers is scheduled for Tuesday, September 4, 2018, at 8:08 p.m. ET at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The matchup will be shown on FS1.
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Odds Analysis
Los Angeles has the better record overall and head-to-head going into this series. L.A. has beaten Texas in six of 10 meetings and outscored them by 25 runs though the Rangers did just take three of four against the Angels last month. Los Angeles has been trending down for a while now. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 16-14 in their last 30 games.
Statistically, the Rangers’ offense is better than the Angels. After all, Texas has outscored the Angels by nearly 30 runs on the year, though the two teams have a nearly identical OPS of .731. The Angels offer more home runs while Texas has a higher OBP.
For the Angels, the offense boils down to Mike Trout. The perennial MVP contender is slashing .307/.456/.613 this season with a 1.069 ERA, in line with the career best he set last year. He’s leading baseball in walks, OBP and OPS+. He’s a bit behind in power due to some injuries but has hit 31 dingers while also stealing 21 bases. He’s the complete package, but the options around him are limited in Los Angeles.
Shohei Ohtani is back pitching again which calls into question his availability at the plate. Having thrown Sunday, he should be back at DH on Tuesday and his bat provides protection for Trout. He’s got an impressive .276 average with 15 homers in 80 games, putting up a 142 OPS+.
The availability of Justin Upton is a question. He came back off the DL but is now dealing with a mild concussion. Wihtout him, the rest of the team is essentially a collection of replacement level players along with Andrelton Simmons and Kole Calhoun. The latter of which has had a tale of two seasons. He was awful in April and May, but been good since the start of July, hitting .296 with 15 home runs.
For the Rangers, there isn’t a single player even remotely as dynamic as Trout, but there is a bit more depth. Shin-Soo Choo is having a very good season with 21 homers and a .849 OPS. He, Rougned Odor, Robinson Chirinos and Jurickson Profar all have an OBP of at least .335. And while those players are getting on base, Joey Gallo is going yard with 34 home runs.
Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus and even Isiah Kiner-Falefa offer superior offensive options than those Los Angeles is throwing out at the bottom of their order.
Probable Pitchers
The Rangers will be sending lefty Mike Minor to the mound in this game. The Angels haven’t announced their starter but are expected to give the start to their own southpaw, Andrew Heaney, who would be on regular rest.
Minor made the transition back to the rotation this year and has done a solid job for Texas, going 10-7 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.111 WHIP. He’s not allowing many base runners but does have 22 homers allowed in 135 innings of work.
The southpaw has been on top of his game the last six starts, going 4-1 with a 2.78 ERA. Having already thrown 135 innings, it’s hard to expect the lefty to keep this up too long. He only tossed 77.2 innings last year, pitching in relief, and hasn’t been a Major League starter since 2014. That’s the last time he started against the Angels, though he did make two relief appearances against them last year with Kansas City.
All in all, Minor has done an exceptional job limiting base runners. He’s not a big K guy, but he forces weak contact. He showed that two starts ago, allowing a single hit and one walk in six innings against a seemingly playoff bound Athletics team.
On the other side of the matchup, Heaney has been the most consistent—and healthy—Angels’ starter. He leads the team in starts with 25 and is 8-8 with a 4.09 ERA and 3.81 FIP. He’s got a 1.184 WHIP and has 144 strikeouts in 152 innings of work.
The 27-year old southpaw’s last start was a six-inning shutout against the Astros, that’s encouraging, but in his previous two starts, he allowed 11 runs on 18 hits in 11.1 innings. One of those starts was against the Rangers where he allowed 10 hits and six runs in 5.1 innings. That was his only start against Texas this year. It’s not promising, but he had a bad outing against the Astros two starts ago before having his impressive performance last time out.
Live Betting
Matching up bullpens in this game gives the edge to the Angels who have a slightly better than league average pen. Los Angeles has a 3.75 bullpen ERA, ranking sixth in the AL. The Rangers, by comparison, ranks two spots lower with a 4.18 ERA as a unit.
The gap between these two teams is bigger than the ERAs would suggest, too. After all, the Rangers moved Keone Kela, Jake Diekman and Jesse Chavez at the non-waiver trade deadline. Those three, had ERAs of 3.44, 3.69 and 3.51 respectively—all below the team average—over 132 innings. Without them, the bullpen ERA is even higher.
Now, Jose Leclerc is getting the save chances. He’s been very good with a 1.78 ERA in 50.2 innings. Outside of him, however, the options are limited for Jeff Banister. Alex Claudio has a low walk rate and ERA near five. Chris Martin, Matt Moore and Eddie Butler offer more questions than answers.
For the Angels, Blake Parker has been a very good closing option, Cam Bedrorisan is a good set up arm as are Jose Alvarez and Jim Johnson. Justin Anderson and Hansel Robles have all pitched well, too.
MLB Pick
Heaney and Minor have been the two most consistent starters for their respective teams this year and Minor has pitched very well in his last six starts.
Look for both southpaws to go six solid innings before turning the ball over to the bullpen. Given the trades earlier this year, the Rangers’ late game options are a bit more limited. Look for the Angels pen to be the difference in this game, holding Texas’s offense at bay following Heaney’s solid start. Meanwhile, look for L.A. to scratch across a couple runs against the Rangers’ relief corps.
Texas’ offense is statistically superior to the Angels, but they’re generally rather close and you can never count on the team with the best player in baseball.
MLB Odds: Angels 6, Rangers 4
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