The Chicago Cubs will get a chance at revenge this week as they host the Los Angeles Dodgers in a three-game series beginning on Monday. The series is the first meeting between the Cubs and Dodgers since the Dodgers knocked Chicago out of the 2017 postseason, taking the NLCS in five games. Both teams could face each other again this October, but for now, the Cubs seem better positioned as the Dodgers continue digging themselves out of an early season hole. Overall, this is set to be a series of two good teams, playing good baseball right now matching up.
The three-game series between the Dodgers and Cubs is scheduled to begin with Game 1 on Monday, June 18, 2018 and wrapping up on Wednesday, June 20, 2019. The first pitch for the first game is slated for 8:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The matchup will be shown locally with the series finale on MLB Network and WGN.
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Odds Analysis
While the Dodgers have a DL a mile long, the only offensive names on the list are Corey Seager and Chase Utley.
Utley’s more of a role player at this point in his career, but the loss of Seager is a big one. Nevertheless, the offense here in June has been on fire.
Matt Kemp has five homers and is hitting .326 this month as he builds on a Comeback Player of the Year campaign. The team was trying to get rid of him in the offseason, but he’s been the most consistent hitter, batting .340 with a .957 OPS and 12 home runs.
With so many players having great months, the Dodgers are now up to nine players with at least 160 plate appearances and an OPS+ north of 100. In fact, there are seven players with an OPS+ of at least 112.
Joc Pederson is 13-for-30 this month with seven home runs. Max Muncy is 12-for-36 with six homers and 10 walks, giving him a OBP of nearly .500.
The rest of team is producing, too. Chris Taylor is back to getting on base ad a high clip and providing good defense at short. Cody Bellinger’s bat is heating up, too.
On the other side, the Cubs have seen Javy Baez cool off dramatically. He was the team’s top offensive producer early, but he’s been struggling through June. Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ have also regressed a bit this month.
Despite that, the Cubbies are still plating runs and playing good baseball. One big reason is Addison Russell. The shortstop was slow starting this year, but he’s 13-for-37 this month. Albert Almora Jr., Willson Contreras and Anthony Rizzo are all hitting well this month.
The Dodgers have shown way more power in June and as a team rank second in baseball in runs this month, just behind the D-Backs and ahead of a Houston team holding the longest winning streak of the season.
Probable Pitchers
The series kicks off with Kenta Maeda getting his second starts since returning from the disabled list. His counterpart for the Cubs is Tyler Chatwood.
Maeda looked healthy in his first start off the DL, but he did walk three Rangers hitters while plunking another. The command was a bit rusty for Maeda, but that should be better on Monday.
The right-hander is having a good season. He’s 4-4 with a 3.61 ERA and 3.01 FIP. He’s allowed just five home runs in 12 games—over 57.1 innings—and while walks can be an issue, he’s getting big strikeouts when he needs them, too.
Even with the walks, Maeda allowed just two runs in five innings in his last start. He’s not one to go deep into games, but Dave Roberts and the Dodgers aren’t known for letting starters go deep. He’ll give L.A. two quality times through the order and then pass the baton to the bullpen.
On the other side of this matchup, Chatwood has more than just a little issue with command like Maeda. His movement is what makes him effective. The hitter doesn’t know where the ball is going, but the problem is: neither does he most of the time.
Chatwood leads the league in walks with 58 and has allowed the same number of walks as strikeouts in his 63.1 innings. He’s allowing far too many base runners, but despite a 1.753 WHIP, he has a solid 4.12 ERA. He’s not giving up home runs and when the opponent does make contact, its weak and on the ground. That’s a good formula, but with so many base runners. He doesn’t go deep in games and when a ground ball does sneak through, it can do damage as runners are often in scoring position.
After the two righties open the series, it’ll be a battle of southpaws in Game 2. For the Dodgers, that means Rich Hill comes off the DL to make his first start in a month while Mike Montgomery is slated to start for the Cubs as he continues to fill Yu Darvish’s rotation spot.
Montgomery is thriving in the rotation. He’s doing all he can to stay there after allowing just two hits in six innings against a good hitting Brewers’ team in his last start. He’s got a 1.14 ERA in four starts. He’s 2-2 with a 3.31 ERA in 22 total games.
On the Hill side of this matchup, we’ll see how rusty he is coming off the DL. He’s just 1-3 with a 6.20 ERA in six starts this season. His FIP is also inflated as he’s allowed seven home runs and walked 13 in those six games.
Hill’s at his best when his curve is sharp. That’s been an issue and can be a feel pitch which makes for a bit of concern given his time away.
In the series finale, Jon Lester is the starter for the Cubs. The Dodgers’ starter remains up in the air.
Lester is having a big bounce back season after a down year last year. He’s 9-2 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.084 WHIP. He’s thrown 83 innings in 14 starts and has generally been able to keep the ball in the park. At home this year, he’s 3-1 with a 1.49 ERA.
Ross Stripling would be on normal rest to make the start for the Dodgers on Wednesday. He’s been the Alex Wood of this year, coming out of the bullpen to have an All-Star worthy first half. If he does make the start, it’ll be an interesting matchup against Lester.
Stripling is 6-1 with a 1.76 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He’s not walking hardly anyone and doing a great job keeping the ball in the ballpark. Meanwhile, he’s got a 10.6 strikeout to walk ratio, 2.40 FIP and 7.09 strikeout to walk ratio.
Live Betting
The Dodgers have the offensive advantage, but the Cubs are the team at home and they also seem to have the better—or at least healthier—rotation. Given that, this series could feature some close, exciting games. The bullpens will factor into these games heavily.
Based on bullpen ERA to date, the Dodgers are an average bullpen while the Cubs are elite. Chicago’s team bullpen ERA is 2.68 compared to 3.80 for Los Angeles.
The Cubbies really do have much more bullpen depth and more options for Maddon. The former Dodger Brandon Morrow will relish a chance to face his former team. He’s now in the closer role after setting up for L.A. last year and has a 1.59 ERA and 16 saves, better numbers than Kenley Jansen. To be far, Jansen’s been more like his normal self lately and his inflated ERA is more a result of the first couple weeks.
Still, Jansen has a 2.48 ERA and 0.949 WHIP. Even without the context, those are good numbers.
Its more who the teams have setting up the closers than the closers themselves that tell us the true stories of the teams.
The Dodgers aren’t going to let Hill go deep in the game and don’t generally like to give starters more than two—and not more than three—times through an order. The bullpen will be involved often in all three games. But, who is there to rely on? Erik Goeddel has been impressive in his 12 appearances, yet to allow a run. How long will that last?
Beyond him, Pedro Baez and Tony Cingrani are on the DL. Scott Alexander already went to the minors for his inconstancies. He’s back and Josh Fields looks pretty good. There’s enough here to get through a series, but there’s no doubt the Cubs have the upper-hand here.
After Morrow, Chicago has a couple former closers in Steve Cishek and Justin Wilson. They have allowed 13 combined earned runs in 58.1 combined innings. Beyond that, Pedro Strop has a 1.88 ERA.
MLB Pick
It’s been a season of setbacks for the Dodgers. They started slow, have lost several key players and nearly their entire starting rotation. Despite that, this team is playing well right now and just shy of the NL West top spot.
Due to injuries right now, the Cubs are the more complete team. They’ve got options based on matchups that Joe Maddon can leverage. They have a lights-out bullpen and a rotation that’s still healthy, save for Yu Darvish.
Look for the Cubs to win this series, but don’t look for a sweep. The Dodgers are getting a few starters back off the DL for this series and are neck-and-neck with the Cubs in runs scored and starters’ ERAs this season. The only area that the Cubs have a real advantage is in the bullpen. They’re also playing at home which plays a role here, too.
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